Geography
Age
Race/Ethnicity
Gender
Marital Status
Education
AFQT
High Quality
Reading Ability
Geography

Geography.  The percentages of recruits from some census regions of the United States have remained fairly stable since the inception of the volunteer force.  However, as Figure 2.10 illustrates, in other regions some substantial shifts have taken place.  The percentage of accessions from the Northeast dropped 8 points from a high of 22 percent in FY 1977 to a low of 14 percent in FY 1989.  Today, 15 percent of enlisted recruits are Northeasterners.  The proportion of accessions from the South increased 9 percentage points from 34 percent in FY 1985 to 43 percent in FY 1995.  In FY 1998, 42 percent of new recruits were from the South.

Figure 2.10.  NPS accessions by geographic region, FYs 19731998.

Changes in geographical representation are related to factors such as shifts in demographic patterns, unemployment, college enrollment, and employment compensation rates, which vary widely across regions of the country.(37)   Obviously, no one factor can explain variations in enlistment rates between different sections of the country; they are more likely attributable to a wide array of economic, social, and demographic factors.

Table 2.10 presents FY 1998 accession statistics by geographic region, division, and state. The third and fourth columns show percentages of accessions and percentages of the 18- to 24-year-old civilian population, respectively, in each area. The fifth column presents military/civilian representation ratios—the percentage of enlisted accessions divided by the percentage of civilians in each area. A representation ratio of 1.00 means that the area has the same proportion of accessions as of the youth population—for example, 8 percent of all recruits and 8 percent of all youth aged 18–24. A ratio of less than 1.00 means that relatively few youth in an area enlist in the military, while a ratio of more than 1.00 indicates above-average market penetration.  The last two columns of the table present the percentages of high-quality accessions (high school graduates in AFQT Categories I–IIIA) and mean AFQT scores for each area.

Table 2.10.  Selected Statistics for FY 1998 NPS Accessions by Region, Division, and State, and Civilians 1824 Years Old

CENSUS REGION
  CENSUS DIVISION
    STATE

Area's Contribution of All NPS Accessions

Area's Percent of All NPS Accessions

Area's Percent of All 18- to 24-Year-Olds

Representation
Ratio

Percent of High-Quality Accessions*

Mean AFQT Percentile Score

NORTHEAST REGION

26,878

15.1

18.1

0.8

62.0

60.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New England Division

5,996

3.4

4.4

0.8

63.9

61.5

 Maine

1,089

0.6

0.4

1.6

68.0

63.0

 New Hampshire

783

0.4

0.4

1.1

68.8

64.1

 Vermont

323

0.2

0.2

0.9

67.2

64.3

 Massachusetts

2,081

1.2

2.2

0.5

61.1

60.2

 Rhode Island

470

0.3

0.3

0.8

60.9

60.3

 Connecticut

1,250

0.7

0.9

0.8

62.2

60.4

             

Middle Atlantic Division

20,882

11.7

13.7

0.9

61.5

59.8

 New York

10,077

5.7

6.5

0.9

59.9

59.2

 New Jersey

3,778

2.1

2.8

0.8

59.9

58.5

 Pennsylvania

7,027

3.9

4.3

0.9

64.6

61.3

NORTH CENTRAL REGION

34,574

19.4

24.0

0.8

65.0

61.6

             

East North Central Division

23,635

13.3

16.6

0.8

64.4

61.1

 Ohio

6,610

3.7

4.1

0.9

64.7

61.1

 Indiana

3,172

1.8

2.2

0.8

64.5

61.9

 Illinois

6,541

3.7

4.4

0.8

61.6

59.9

 Michigan

5,000

2.8

4.0

0.7

65.0

60.8

 Wisconsin

2,312

1.3

1.9

0.7

69.6

64.1

             

West North Central Division

10,939

6.1

7.3

0.8

66.4

62.5

 Minnesota

1,921

1.1

1.7

0.6

69.4

64.6

 Iowa

1,639

0.9

1.1

0.9

70.9

64.1

 Missouri

3,692

2.1

2.2

1.0

61.5

60.0

 North Dakota

377

0.2

0.3

0.8

74.3

67.3

 South Dakota

564

0.3

0.4

0.9

70.6

63.5

 Nebraska

1,119

0.6

0.7

0.9

64.8

62.4

 Kansas

1,627

0.9

1.1

0.8

67.1

62.7

SOUTH REGION

76,302

42.9

34.7

1.2

58.5

58.4

 

           

South Atlantic Division

37,722

21.2

16.7

1.3

58.3

58.4

 Delaware

452

0.3

0.3

0.9

60.4

58.4

 Maryland

3,570

2.0

1.5

1.3

61.1

59.8

 District of Columbia

248

0.1

0.2

0.7

49.6

54.0

 Virginia

5,693

3.2

2.2

1.5

59.0

59.4

 West Virginia

1,494

0.8

0.7

1.3

58.1

57.4

 North Carolina

5,111

2.9

2.9

1.0

57.4

57.8

 South Carolina

3,596

2.0

1.3

1.5

55.7

56.5

 Georgia

5,983

3.4

2.8

1.2

55.8

57.2

 Florida

11,575

6.5

4.9

1.3

59.8

59.3

             

East South Central Division

11,509

6.5

6.1

1.1

55.9

57.1

 Kentucky

2,347

1.3

1.5

0.9

58.9

58.4

 Tennessee

3,147

1.8

1.9

0.9

60.5

59.3

 Alabama

3,874

2.2

1.6

1.4

53.6

55.9

 Mississippi

2,141

1.2

1.1

1.1

49.9

54.5

             

West South Central Division

27,071

15.2

11.8

1.3

59.8

58.9

 Arkansas

2,114

1.2

1.0

1.1

57.3

58.2

 Louisiana

3,728

2.1

1.9

1.1

53.9

55.7

 Oklahoma

3,070

1.7

1.2

1.5

61.4

59.5

 Texas

18,159

10.2

7.8

1.3

61.0

59.5

WEST REGION

40,164

22.6

23.3

1.0

62.3

60.3

             

Mountain Division

12,917

7.3

6.9

1.1

64.2

61.4

 Montana

1,064

0.6

0.3

1.7

71.0

63.5

 Idaho

1,006

0.6

0.5

1.1

65.1

63.1

 Wyoming

570

0.3

0.2

1.7

67.5

63.2

 Colorado

2,660

1.5

1.6

1.0

64.1

62.1

 New Mexico

1,551

0.9

0.6

1.4

60.0

59.4

 Arizona

3,695

2.1

1.9

1.1

62.5

60.0

 Utah

1,046

0.6

1.1

0.5

67.2

63.2

 Nevada

1,325

0.7

0.6

1.3

64.6

61.5

             

Pacific Division

27,247

15.3

16.5

0.9

61.4

59.7

 Washington

3,991

2.2

2.0

1.1

66.8

63.9

 Oregon

2,351

1.3

1.2

1.1

66.7

63.3

 California

19,547

11.0

12.6

0.9

59.7

58.4

 Alaska

539

0.3

0.2

1.4

66.6

63.1

 Hawaii

819

0.5

0.4

1.1

54.7

56.8

Total (50 STATES + D.C.)

177,918**

100.0

100.0

1.0

61.1

59.7

Columns may not add to total due to rounding.
* High-quality accessions are high school graduates who score at or above the 50th percentile on the AFQT.  This column is the number of high-quality accessions in area divided by the total number of accessions in area.
** Does not include 2,113 recruits from the territories and unknowns.
Source: Civilian data from Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey, File, October 1997 – September 1998

The South region had the greatest ratio of enlistees (1.2).  The South Atlantic and West South Central divisions had the strongest representation (1.3 each).  The Northeast and North Central regions had representation ratios of 0.8 and the West region had a representation ratio of 1.0.

Slightly more than half of the states had representation ratios of 1.0 or more.  These included:  Maine and New Hampshire in the Northeast; Missouri in the North Central; all states except Utah and California in the West; and all states, except Delaware, Kentucky, Tennessee, and the District of Columbia, in the South.  Among all states and the District of Columbia, the ratios ranged from a low of 0.5 in Massachusetts and Utah to a high of 1.7 in Montana and Wyoming.

The sixth column of Table 2.10 shows the proportion of high-quality accessions by geographical area.  There were only minor differences by region in FY 1998.  The proportion of high-quality accessions by region ranged from a low of 59 percent in the South to a high of 65 percent in the North Central region.  Differences across divisions were somewhat larger.  Nearly 11 percentage points separated the East South Central and West North Central divisions.  Differences at the state level were still larger, ranging from 50 percent in the District of Columbia and Mississippi to 74 percent in North Dakota.

The last column of Table 2.10 shows the mean AFQT score by each geographical area.  Occasionally interest has been expressed in using AFQT scores as an indicator of the performance of state educational systems.  AFQT statistics are not particularly suitable for this purpose for several reasons.  As a sample of youth in a state, ASVAB test-takers reflect a number of selection biases, the total effect of which is unknown.  Those who take the test as part of the enlistment process exclude many students who intend to enroll in college, prospects who fail the enlistment screening test, and youth who do not have an interest in military enlistment.  Therefore, youth who take the ASVAB should not be presumed to be representative of the communities or school systems from which they are drawn.  Even without the biases, it would be difficult to determine how much the test scores reflect differences in school performance from state to state, or how much they reflect other state characteristics, such as social composition and economic conditions.  In sum, while the ASVAB is an excellent instrument for the purposes for which it was designed, it does not provide valid state-by-state school performance data.

Nevertheless, AFQT scores by state may be of interest for purposes other than assessing school system performance.  The AFQT figures in Table 2.10 reflect the mean AFQT percentile scores for accessions in each state.  Percentiles displayed in Table 2.10 are all above 50 because low-scoring applicants are screened out.

  1. Kostiuk, P.F., Geographic Variations in Recruiting Market Conditions (Alexandria, VA:  Center for Naval Analyses, 1989). (go back)

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