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Your search for Escalation found 60 results.

Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Debates

/reports/2020/04/russian-strategy-for-escalation-management-debates

This report offers an overview of the main debates in Russian military thought on deterrence and escalation management in the post-Cold War period, based on authoritative publications. It explores discussions by Russian military analysts and strategists on “regional nuclear deterrence,” namely the structure of a two-level deterrence system (regional and global); debates on “nonnuclear deterrence” and the role of strategic conventional weapons in escalation management; as well as writings on the evolution of damage concepts toward ones that reflect damage that is tailored to the adversary. Russian military thinking on damage informs the broader discourse on ways and means to shift an opponent’s calculus in an escalating conflict. The report concludes with summaries of recent articles that reflect ongoing discourse on the evolution of Russia’s strategic deterrence system and key trends in Russian military thought on escalation management.

Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Debates Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Key Debates and Players in Military Thought This report offers an overview of the main debates in Russian military thought on deterrence and escalation management in the post-Cold War period, based on authoritative publications. It explores discussions by Russian military analysts and strategists ... in escalation management; as well as writings on the evolution of damage concepts toward ones that reflect damage that is tailored to the adversary. Russian military thinking on damage informs the broader

Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Key Concepts

/reports/2020/04/russian-strategy-for-escalation-management-key-concepts

This report examines evolving debates within the Russian military on questions of “escalation management,” or intra-war deterrence.

Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Key Concepts Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts This report examines evolving debates within the Russian military on questions of “escalation management,” or intra-war deterrence. In the 1990s, the Russian military debated the ways and means by which to carry out deterrence at different levels of conflict, while ... be applied to deter adversaries or manage escalation. These concepts became part of military strategy, and ventually came to be codified in national security concepts in the first decade of the 2000s. After

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow

/reports/2020/09/prevailing-under-the-nuclear-shadow

The United States has characterized today’s geopolitical environment as a “long-term, strategic competition between nations.” This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nucleararmed competitors of the US—Russia, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). These adversaries view competition with the US as having a nuclear dimension that is not confined to high-end warfare. Accordingly, the US must anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant, but would also have major political and normative consequences. Yet practical concepts for escalation management are lacking in the post-Cold War, contemporary great power context. To fill that gap, this report proposes foundational elements for a nuclear escalation management framework. This novel framework leverages key concepts from escalation theory and risk management literature to create a structured, analytical process for US policy-makers and planners to evaluate potential courses of action (COAs) that could be employed to achieve favorable escalation management with nucleararmed competitors.

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management The United States has characterized today’s geopolitical environment ... anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation ... , but would also have major political and normative consequences. Yet practical concepts for escalation management are lacking in the post-Cold War, contemporary great power context. To fill that gap

Examining Recent PLA Writings

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This study examines how people in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) think about and discuss escalation control in their public writings. It draws on over two dozen PLA writings, most issued since 2008, to explore the current state of PLA thinking on how crisis and conflict erupt, escalate, and end. We focused on PLA views of conventional (non-nuclear) conflict. We found that controlling the outbreak and escalation of crisis is an area of focus for the PLA. We also found that there are divergences from U.S. thinking that are worthy of attention. Chief among these is that some Chinese military activities in a crisis could be perceived as—and therefore become—escalatory even if they are not intended as such. Finally, we found that PLA views on these issues are evolving, and that there are still many critical unknowns in our understanding of PLA views on escalation control.

Examining Recent PLA Writings Managing Conflict: Examining Recent PLA Writings on Escalation Control This study examines how people in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) think about and discuss escalation control in their public writings. It draws on over two dozen PLA writings, most issued since 2008, to explore the current state of PLA thinking on how crisis and conflict erupt, escalate, and end. We focused on PLA views of conventional (non-nuclear) conflict. We found that controlling the outbreak and escalation of crisis is an area of focus for the PLA. We also found

Nuclear Research

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Highlighting CNA's Nuclear Research

Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management https://youtu.be/8qbjc0VOJfo video /images/Centers/CNA/SP3/Nuclear/NuclearBanner.jpg fixed CNA analysts have decades of experience ... : Deterrence, Escalation, and the Threat of Nuclear War in 1969 /reports/2010/sino-soviet-border-conflict The Sino-Soviet Border Conflict: Deterrence, Escalation, and the Threat of Nuclear War in 1969 blank ... : A New Framework for US Escalation Management /reports/2020/09/prevailing-under-the-nuclear-shadow Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management blank New Life

Plans and Strategy

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CNA experts in strategy and plans have advised Marine Corps, Navy, homeland security senior leaders for decades, including analysis for today’s force designs.

Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management /reports/2021/10/reimagining-defense-strategy Highlights from a CNA National Security Seminar featuring Christian Brose, former staff director

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management

/videos/2023/prevailing-under-the-nuclear-shadow-a-new-framework-for-us-escalation-management

https://www.cna.org Madison Estes, Timothy P. McDonnell, Brad Roberts (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) discussed approaches to managing escalation in crises and conflicts with nuclear-armed near-peer competitors. [Originally Published: 2020-09-24]

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management https://www.cna.org Madison Estes, Timothy P. McDonnell, Brad Roberts (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) discussed approaches to managing escalation in crises and conflicts with nuclear-armed near-peer competitors. [Originally Published: 2020-09-24] Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management https://www.youtube.com/embed/8qbjc0VOJfo /our-media/videos Videos

Insight on Nuclear Escalation from Russia’s War on Ukraine

/our-media/press-releases/2024/03-14

CNA has released a collection of six papers that explore the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war for strategic stability and the evolving regional and international security landscape.

/news/PressRelease.png Insight on Nuclear Escalation from Russia’s War on Ukraine CNA has released a collection of six papers that explore the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war for strategic stability and the evolving regional and international security landscape. These reports are written by experts on Russia, nuclear strategy, and escalation dynamics from across the Euro-Atlantic region ... , economic, and security arrangements. The other three focus on technologies and capabilities employed in the war, assessing their impacts on escalation dynamics. Vladimir Putin's February 2022

US NATO Russian Strategic Stability in Ukraine

/reports/2023/06/us-nato-russian-strategic-stability-in-ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nuclear threats, and vague red lines risks a security dilemma with US/NATO—affecting vertical escalation and arms race stability.

with US/NATO—affecting vertical escalation and arms race stability. Introduction This paper analyzes the role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s war in Ukraine as well as the war’s impact on overall ... escalation pathways involve escalation from the use of conventional (non-nuclear) weapons, this paper also necessarily explores the interactions between conventional war and potential nuclear use. This paper begins by applying an existing framework for understanding escalation to examine US/NATO-Russian strategic stability in the Russo-Ukrainian war. After assessing real and hypothetical

New Report: A New Framework for Managing Nuclear Escalation

/our-media/press-releases/2020/09-16

With less than six months left until the New START arms control treaty expires, the climate of cooperative nuclear risk reduction continues to sour.

Framework for Managing Nuclear Escalation With less than six months left until the New START arms control treaty expires, the climate of cooperative nuclear risk reduction continues to sour ... Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for U.S. Escalation Management," analyst Madison Estes argues that the nuclear policy community has focused on escalation characterizations and risks at the expense of escalation management. The report aims to fill that gap with a practical decision-making framework to vet actionable policy options that would better enable the U.S. to minimize