CNA Publication Archive: 2015

December 21, 2015

CNA Education is evaluating the Florida College and Career Readiness Initiative (FCCRI) through a grant from the U.S. Department of Education. The FCCRI is a statewide policy that has required college readiness testing in 11th grade, and then participation in college readiness and success courses in 12th grade for students who did not test as "college-ready."

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December 18, 2015

In March 2015, in Delhi, India, CNA held a game and scenario-planning session in support of the Skoll Global Threats Fund and the United Kingdom's Foreign and Commonwealth Office. During the event, we explored the future effects of climate change as they relate to security around the world. Participants included renowned scientists, security experts, diplomats, and retired military personnel from Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Based on game play and discussions, we identified four major findings: (1) climate change may increase nationalism and policies of internalization in developed countries; (2) large-scale climate-induced migration may impact a country's international policies, economic situation, and defining cultural attributes, changing the way they participate in global commons; (3) competition for limited resources may increase as a source of friction and shape policies and international relations; and (4) climate change technologies are not viewed in the same way by all countries, and there is potential for an emerging disparity between regions over the consensus and control of these technologies. This document gives an overview of the event and discusses why we identified each of these factors as a security risk that could result from climate change.

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December 16, 2015

On September 24, 2015, CNA convened an executive session in Arlington, VA, on "Early Warning Systems: What's New? What's Working?" This session provided criminal justice leaders, policy makers, and researchers with an opportunity to share information and discuss approaches that deepen our understanding of emerging issues in American policing.

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December 1, 2015

As part of its wider efforts to assess the implications of Russia's foreign and national security policy, CNA initiated this study to examine Russia's objectives, policy, and strategic and operational calculus with respect to ethnic Russian, Russian-speaking, and other potentially sympathetic populations residing in other former Soviet states. This is a quick-response, three-month effort designed to stimulate public discourse around Russia's efforts to use these communities, which Moscow defines as compatriots, to further its policy goals. The study highlights several important implications that U.S. policy-makers may consider in formulating policy toward Russia and the countries in which these compatriot populations reside.

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November 17, 2015

As of 2015, military personnel who entered service after July 31, 1986 and who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose between two retirement plans at their 15th year of service. The two choices are: (1) High-3 retirement plan: Retirement pay is based on the highest average basic pay for 36 months of a servicemember's career. These are usually the last 3 years. (2) REDUX retirement plan plus a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service. In return for accepting the bonus, REDUX provides smaller retirement checks. How should Marines, Sailors, Airmen, and Soldiers decide which option to take? The Department of Defense had a website that provided information and examples to help servicemembers, but it is currently unavailable. We have used a different approach that many have found useful in evaluating these retirement choices. Here, we update that work for those making the retirement choice in 2015.

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October 21, 2015

This report uses data from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics to identify high-growth and high-wage occupations in the state of Florida, and the associated career and technical education (CTE) Career Clusters. This information can be used to assist educational and private industry CTE stakeholders in identifying whether the CTE Programs of Study that schools and colleges offer are well aligned with current and future local labor market needs.

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October 21, 2015

This report uses data from the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Department of Labor's Standard Occupational Classification system to identify high-growth and high-wage occupations in the state of Tennessee, and the associated career and technical education (CTE) Career Clusters. This information can be used to assist educational and private industry CTE stakeholders in identifying whether the CTE Programs of Study that high schools and postsecondary institutions offer are well aligned with current and projected local labor market needs.

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October 1, 2015

The United States Department of Defense engages in numerous humanitarian and development assistance projects around the world. The Army Corps of Engineers asked CNA to examine means of evaluating the return on investment of the climate-related disaster-risk-reduction projects that the military undertakes. Increasing these activities may reduce the number and/or size of disaster response missions for the military in the future. We conducted a proof-of-concept study investigating whether data and methods exist to estimate the return on investment. We built upon many related analyses that have been conducted for the civilian sector. We outlined and tested two basic approaches, and extracted lessons regarding the viability of the approaches, the utility of the results, and means to improve the implementation of the analytic approach.

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September 30, 2015

N51, the Director of Strategy and Policy on the Navy Staff, asked CNA to assess the Navy Strategic Enterprise, which was established by charter in 2014. The purpose of the Navy Strategic Enterprise is to communicate Navy strategy efforts across the staffs and organizations responsible for strategy functions and to coordinate their actions. This study assesses whether the Navy Strategic Enterprise is achieving the missions outlined in its charter. Where it is not achieving its missions, this study identifies the obstacles that are hindering it and what actions and activities the Navy Strategic Enterprise and its member organizations can take to overcome those obstacles. We also compared the Navy's approach to strategy development with the Air Force, Army, and Marine Corps. CNA developed two courses of action that the Navy Strategic Enterprise and its member staffs and organizations can follow to improve Navy strategy, development, engagement, and assessment.

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September 16, 2015

This report is the product of a systematic review of published data and research about education in middle Appalachia from 1995 to 2015. Special attention is paid to issues that reflect national and regional priorities: college and career readiness, educator effectiveness, access to and quality of curriculum and instruction, systemic capacity, and health and wellness factors. Overall, the review suggests that education opportunities and outcomes in middle Appalachia are improving.

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August 31, 2015

This paper, which builds from an earlier paper written on covert versus overt provocations for the 6th CNA-KIMS workshop, examines North Korea's provocation and escalation calculus, as well as the timing inherent in its brinksmanship decision-making. It contains information up through the end of May 2015.

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August 31, 2015

Because the Navy has a closed personnel system, it must access enough surface warfare officers (SWOs) each year to fill future mid-level requirements. Given historical SWO retention, however, the number of SWO accessions needed to fill future mid-level requirements exceeds the junior SWO workload, resulting in officer overexecution (OOE). To evaluate the risk associated with courses of action to address OOE, leadership must understand the SWO accession model and its underlying assumptions. We reviewed the model and recommend which underlying assumptions to use, particularly for SWO retention. We found that SWO retention is significantly affected by the number and experience level of prior-enlisted SWO accessions. We also found that female SWOs with a nuclear subspecialty are the only SWOs whose retention appears to be affected by the level of OOE in their first sea assignment. In addition, we developed an index of economic activity that could be used to help forecast conventional SWO retention.

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August 31, 2015

Understanding surface warfare officer (SWO) retention is critical for accession planning and community management. In this information memorandum, we estimate the relationship between SWO retention and the strength of the civilian economy. We estimate that a one-unit increase in an index of macroeconomic activity (indicating a worsening of the economy) increases conventional SWO retention by 2.6 percentage points. By design, the index is forecastable and could be used to project conventional SWO retention rates. Retention rates of SWOs with the nuclear subspecialty (SWO(N)s) show no consistent relationship with economic conditions. We also estimate the relationship between SWO retention and exposure to early-career officer overexecution (OOE). We find no consistent relationship between the amount of OOE on the platform of first assignment and the retention rates of conventional SWOs or male SWO(N)s. We find that female SWO(N) retention rates are affected by OOE, particularly OOE in paygrade O2.

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August 31, 2015

This study examines how teachers' qualifications and pedagogical approaches differ across the 35 National Guard Youth Challenge Program (ChalleNGe) sites. ChalleNGe serves high school dropouts with both academic and noncognitive components, including a postresidential mentoring phase. We developed and fielded an online teacher survey. Using the survey data and information from the programs' annual reports, we investigate whether different teacher qualifications or pedagogical approaches are correlated with programs' average cadet outcomes (e.g., graduation rates, postresidential placement). We also attempt to identify classroom methods that may be effective with disadvantaged youth, who typically perform below grade-level (the ChalleNGe student body). Of the numerous factors we considered, only a few were found to be significantly correlated with cadet outcomes—namely, the prevalence of postgraduate degrees among teaching staff, consistency in the gender makeup of classes, a greater emphasis on small-group instruction, emphasis on advanced math and "math life skills," and a focus on critiquing and evaluating texts and writing to summarize.

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August 14, 2015

CNA convened an executive session on July 9, 2015, the third such session held at CNA since September 2014. This session brought together police leaders, police trainers, government agency leaders, police researchers, and community advocates (several of whom served on the President's Task Force) to engage in a guided discussion on the future of policing in America, with the President's Task Force report as the backdrop.

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August 11, 2015

This study aims to model the landscape of the Marcellus Shale region to predict how it may change in the future in response to the expansion of natural gas extraction, and, in particular, what impact this may have on the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Our approach combined geospatial analysis and statistical modeling to create a probability surface that predicts the most favorable locations for the placement of future wells based on the location of existing wells. Using the probability surface and an estimate of the number of wells that would be needed to fully exploit the shale resource, we estimated the future landscape of development in the Interior Marcellus Shale and DRB. Using affected subwatersheds and counties as study areas, we then investigated potential impacts associated with land cover, water and wastewater management, water quality due to changes in land cover, air emissions, and health risk factors. The results are intended to help decision-makers and the public understand the scale of the potential impacts.

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August 10, 2015

On June 11, 2015, a group of current and former senior government officials, military officers, and analysts gathered in London to exchange views on topics relating to security in the Middle East. The meeting was jointly convened by CNA's Center for Naval Analyses and the Institute for Statecraft, a British non-profit analytic organization founded in 2003 to study new security threats and to devise and implement responses. The discussion, held under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution, focused on evaluating and countering the threat from the Islamic State (IS).

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August 1, 2015

The Commandant of the Marine Corps tasked the Ground Combat Element Integrated Task Force (GCE ITF) to train and operate as an integrated combat arms unit to support the development and validation of gender-neutral occupational standards and to assess the effects of gender integration on various measures of readiness and mission success within closed GCE units. In this report, we analyze the GCE ITF Climate Surveys fielded in November 2014, February 2015, and May/June 2015. The surveys inform a variety of issues, with a particular focus on such intangibles as motivations to join the Marine Corps and to volunteer for the GCE ITF, and Marines' attitudes and opinions about integrated units—especially with regard to morale, readiness, and unit cohesion. We supplement our survey data analysis with focus group and structured interview information also collected in May/June 2015.

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August 1, 2015

The Commandant of the Marine Corps tasked the Ground Combat Element Integrated Task Force (GCE ITF) to train and operate as an integrated combat arms unit to support the development and validation of gender-neutral occupational standards and to assess the effects of gender integration on various measures of readiness and mission success within closed GCE units. This annex provides the baseline, the posttraining, and the postassessment survey instruments, the male and female Marine volunteer focus group facilitator's guides, and the leadership focus group and interview facilitator's guide. The surveys inform a variety of issues, with a particular focus on such intangibles as motivations to join the Marine Corps and to volunteer for the GCE ITF, and Marines' attitudes and opinions about integrated units— especially with regard to morale, readiness, and unit cohesion. We supplement our survey data analysis with focus group and structured interview information also collected in May/June 2015.

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July 31, 2015

If nuclear proliferation in the Gulf is to be prevented, the United States will need to have a clear view of its Gulf allies' security concerns. To that end, CNA organized a Track 1.5 forum to encourage dialogue between the United States and its Gulf allies on these issues and to explore the broader questions of deterrence and assurance. The closed-door event brought together officials, scholars, and experts from the United States, the five GCC states (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain), Jordan, and Turkey to engage in an unofficial and not-for-attribution discussion on strategic issues. The event was divided into three panels, each followed by group discussion. Panel topics included nuclear weapons and strategic deterrence in the Gulf; regional perceptions of U.S. policies; and the potential for future nuclear proliferation in the region. Three speakers (one from the United States and two from the region) offered presentations for each panel.

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July 31, 2015

Two of the strategies the Northeast Tennessee College and Career Ready Consortium has implemented to expand high school students' access to academically rigorous courses are (1) improving the quality of instruction in math and science and (2) expanding the availability of online learning, distance learning, and college-level Advanced Placement and dual enrollment courses. This quarterly report examines progress made by the Consortium in these two areas during the grant period.

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July 31, 2015

The Northeast Tennessee College and Career Ready Consortium, funded by a 2010 Investing in Innovation Fund (i3) grant to the Niswonger Foundation, aims to ensure that all its high school students graduate college and career ready. In the spring of 2015, the CNA evaluation team conducted in-person, semi-structured interviews with administrators and guidance counselors at all 30 Consortium high schools. The purpose of the interviews was to understand how schools have overcome impediments to achieving stated goals of the grant, identify promising practices in making progress toward Consortium goals, and learn how schools may be planning for sustainability after the i3 grant ends in September 2015.

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July 9, 2015

Civil affairs (CA) forces will operate increasingly in the "New Normal" environment, a period of instability and low-level conflict where maintaining persistent engagement with partners and allies will be critical to deterring and managing conflict and unrest. In this new environment, CA forces play a critical role in conflict prevention and in addressing the root causes of conflict. When crises do arise, CA forces can leverage the influence they have built in an area via a minimal footprint approach and blend with crisis response forces where necessary. Highlighting earlier work on civil affairs that CNA has conducted for the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps, this occasional paper explores challenges and opportunities for the joint CA force to conduct civil-military operations in the "New Normal" and charts a way ahead for the CA community to operate in this new environment.

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July 1, 2015

Over the past several years, the Department of Defense has asked the services to pursue expanded opportunities for women in the military. To support this effort, the Marine Corps started a deliberate and measured effort to examine the possible integration of women into ground combat units and military occupational specialties (MOSs): the Marine Corps Force Integration Plan (MCFIP). As the Corps considers expanding opportunities for women, it asked CNA to assist in identifying concentrations of women who are likely to qualify for service in the Marine Corps' officer corps. In this report, we provide school-level and county-level estimates of the Qualified Candidate Population (QCP) separately for all racial/ethnic and gender subpopulations. We find that QCP continues to be highly concentrated and that the female QCP tends to be in the same locations as the male QCP.

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June 26, 2015

Indonesia lies at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region. Its new president, Joko Widodo, wants to transform Indonesia into a "global maritime fulcrum" between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. He will struggle to overcome entrenched elites, a sluggish bureaucracy, endemic corruption, limited resources, and the army's traditional dominance within the armed forces. Nonetheless, President Widodo has articulated a new maritime vision that steers Indonesia towards regional maritime power. A maritime-oriented, democratic strategic partner at the intersection of the Pacific and Indian Oceans would be a critical counterweight to China. The U.S. Navy has played its part in the incremental restoration of U.S.-Indonesian defense ties. Indonesia's new maritime ambitions provide an opening to forge a closer naval partnership. After CNA hosted a workshop for subject-matter experts, we concluded that: (1) An in-depth review of U.S. options should be undertaken, if possible before Joko Widodo travels to Washington this fall. (2) Washington should explore the feasibility of a more forward leaning posture in supporting naval and maritime cooperation.

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May 1, 2015

In annexing the Crimean peninsula and supporting instability in Ukraine's eastern provinces, the Russian Federation and its armed forces have used so-called "ambiguous warfare" to great tactical and operational effect. This brand of warfare involves rapidly generating highly trained and disciplined forces who enter the battle space out of uniform and, in coordination with local supporters, utilize psychological operations, intimidation, and bribery to undermine resistance. While it is unlikely that U.S. Marines will directly confront Russian Federation forces in the near future, other nations and non-state actors who are potential U.S. adversaries are closely observing Russia's use of ambiguous warfare and will likely modify their own strategy and tactics as a result. Therefore, it behooves the U.S. Marine Corps to understand the lessons from Crimea and Ukraine and how other adversaries might militarily adapt as a result of Russia's success. To deliberately raise a host of questions that the Marine Corps should think about going forward, CNA convened a one-day meeting of U.S. and international experts on February 25, 2015, to discuss the implications for the U.S. Marine Corps of Russia's ambiguous warfare. This paper presents a summary of that discussion, which was held under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution to encourage a candid exchange of views.

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May 1, 2015

In January 2012, the Obama administration announced a rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region. Changes in land power objectives and requirements mean that the U.S. Army will face different demand signals in the coming years, which in turn will affect how it needs to posture itself for success. U.S. national security objectives, a changing security environment, and evolving regional interests and expectations will influence the Army's role and impact. This study is meant to help the Army think about its future role in the Asia-Pacific region.

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May 1, 2015

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This CNA Interactive Software product is our update with data as of September 30, 2014.

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April 1, 2015

In this study, we considered three related issues. The first was an update to previous estimates of the amount of sea duty that can be gained from a rise in Career Sea Pay and Career Sea Pay Premium. The second was how to separate multiple effects of sea-duty pay that have been intermingled in previous estimates: the effect of sea pay on reenlistment, the effect on attrition, and the effect on time spent on sea duty, conditional on remaining in the Navy. We also suggest an alternative method for combining sea pay with reenlistment bonuses—a non-linear pricing scheme that would induce personnel to reveal important information about their willingness to reenlist and their willingness to undertake sea duty. Under this pricing mechanism, the Navy could fashion combinations of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses and sea pays that would achieve its reenlistment and sea-duty goals at less cost than the current compensation scheme.

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February 1, 2015

On February 18, 2015, CNA convened a small group event on the topic of Aiding Cameroon's Effort to Counter Boko Haram. In this event, which CNA held as part of our growing line of research on security issues in West Africa and the Sahel, a small panel of high-level participants from key United States government (USG) agencies, think tanks, and international agencies offered considerable insights and expertise on this topic. Specifically, participants discussed the nature of Boko Haram as an organization, the threat that Boko Haram presents to Cameroon and the government of Cameroon's response to date, and recommendations for the USG going forward.

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February 1, 2015

U.S. Naval Forces Africa asked CNA to recommend an approach for the United States government (USG) to counter Boko Haram. The USG has been working with the government of Nigeria (GoN) to defeat the group, but the two governments are taking divergent approaches and efforts to date have not been effective. The GoN is taking a narrow counterterrorism approach that relies heavily on the military, whereas a broader whole-of-government approach is required. Due to the political dynamics in Nigeria, the USG has few ways to change the GoN's approach to the conflict. We propose that the USG and other supporting partners focus on assisting Chad, Niger, and Cameroon to become increasingly able to prevent Boko Haram from taking root within their borders. While this would not dismantle Boko Haram in the near term, it could buy time for conditions in Nigeria to become more favorable to direct U.S. assistance.

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February 1, 2015

As part of the Marine Corps Force Integration Plan considering female integration into previously closed Military Occupational Specialties and units, CNA was asked to support the Marine Corps Recruiting Command's research needs. This research memorandum, which reviews the literature on predictors of male and female Marine performance over the last 25 years, will inform CNA's work examining the impact of previous female integration as well as future trend analysis. Performance measures include attrition and promotion at different milestones. We reviewed studies of Marine Corps performance for enlisted personnel and officers. Some enlisted equations were separately estimated for men and women, but officer equations were not. We observe that some factors are solid predictors of lower Marine Corps enlisted attrition for both men and women, such as time in the Delayed Entry Program, Armed Forces Qualification Test score, education, race/ethnicity, enlistment waivers, and being recruited as a high school senior. Other predictors of enlisted attrition, such as age, vary by gender.

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January 30, 2015

In Fall 2010, the Niswonger Foundation received a five-year validation grant from the Investing in Innovation Fund (i3) to create the Northeast Tennessee College and Career Ready Consortium of 29 high schools and five colleges. This report evaluates the Consortium's impact on student outcomes three years in.

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January 1, 2015

The intent of this report is to provide the appropriate type of information—at the appropriate level of granularity—in order to inform U.S. government efforts to develop more effective approaches to countering Boko Haram. The goal is to help U.S. planners and decision-makers understand the conflict as an interconnected system and, eventually, to develop targeted, conflict-sensitive strategies for assisting the Nigerian government. Specifically, this report seeks to diagnose and dissect the conflict by identifying relevant political, economic, social, and security factors at work in northeast Nigeria, by analyzing how key actors mobilize grievances and institutional resiliencies to drive or mitigate conflict, and by forecasting how conflict dynamics might evolve in the future.

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