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CNA Publication Archive: 2014

December 17, 2014

This report describes feedback CNA obtained during the 2013/14 school year about the strengths and weaknesses of the Florida College and Career Readiness Initiative and ways to increase its effectiveness, particularly as it relates to improving those 12th grade college readiness and success courses.

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December 17, 2014

The Florida College and Career Readiness Initiative is a statewide policy that mandates college placement testing of 11th-graders who meet high school graduation criteria but are unlikely to meet college readiness criteria. Students who score below college-ready on the Postsecondary Education Readiness Test (PERT) are required to take math and English/language arts college readiness and success courses in 12th grade. This report discusses qualitative feedback from students, teachers, district administrators, and college faculty and staff from the 2013/14 school year. It examines how educators perceive the effectiveness of the initiative and barriers to implementation, what the grade 12 courses look like in practice, how K–12 and postsecondary institutions collaborate around the initiative, what types of promising practices Florida's state colleges use to prepare students for college and careers, and what high school students think could be done to better prepare them for post–high school plans.

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December 1, 2014

This study follows CNA's 2013 analysis of changes in a class of cadets at the Washington Youth Academy (WYA) National Guard Youth ChalleNGe Program (ChalleNGe). It analyzes data from a second class of cadets and draws conclusions regarding how participation in ChalleNGe affects youths' cognitive and noncognitive growth. It also looks at the relationship between cognitive and noncognitive measures and the predictive power of noncognitive skills. Our findings suggest that the WYA ChalleNGe program has a substantial impact on cadets' noncognitive skills; however, we found no noncognitive measures that strongly predict program completion. We found statistically significant improvements in four cognitive measures. Regarding the relationship between noncognitive and cognitive growth, we found that initial math efficacy is much more important in predicting final math scores for those with low scores at the end of ChalleNGe than for those with higher scores. We also found several gender differences.

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December 1, 2014

Over the past several years, the Department of Defense has asked the services to pursue expanded opportunities for women in the military. To support this effort, the Marine Corps started a deliberate and measured effort to examine the possible integration of women into ground combat units and military occupational specialties (MOSs) with the development of the Marine Corps Force Integration Plan (MCFIP). In turn, the Marine Corps asked CNA to examine female recruit training attrition. We examined the relationship between female recruit training attrition and four general groups of factors: (1) recruit characteristics, (2) recruiter and recruiter/recruit interaction characteristics, (3) recruiting substation leadership and management metrics, and (4) shipping timing factors. Although recruit characteristics and shipping timing factors continue to be the best predictors of female recruit training success, we found some interesting relationships between attrition and (1) recruiter and recruiter/recruit interaction characteristics and (2) recruiting substation leadership/management metrics. These may merit additional examination in future analyses.

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December 1, 2014

CNA Resource Analysis produces the Population Representation in the Military Services (also known as "Pop Rep") report for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. This report, mandated by the Senate Committee on Armed Services in May 1974 and produced every year since, describes the characteristics of U.S. military personnel in order to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with comprehensive, reliable, and consistent data tabulations on military personnel. The report highlights current year and historical personnel trends in the Department of Defense services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force) and the U.S. Coast Guard. It describes demographic characteristics of applicants, accessions, enlisted personnel, and officers and includes information on the socioeconomic characteristics of those accessed into the military. Except where otherwise noted, data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center.

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November 30, 2014

The literature shows that the best outcomes occur when patients get their health care in high-volume settings. High-volume surgeons are more proficient. High volume hospitals are safer. These findings have changed how civilian health care is delivered. Civilian hospitals, insurance companies, governments, and institutions all focus on volume as an indicator of quality. The Military Health System (MHS) lags by comparison. Fewer MHS patients have their procedures in high-volume settings. MHS also misses opportunities to consolidate low-volume hospitals into higher-volume regional facilities. For many product lines, most operations are done by surgeons who perform the procedure infrequently. There are nearly 10 million TRICARE beneficiaries, and thus ample opportunities for MHS to set up high-volume "center of excellence" programs to meet existing beneficiary demand for services. Such initiatives could improve average patient outcomes while supporting clinical currency for MHS physicians.

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November 28, 2014

The aim of this report is to propose additional policy options that the United States might pursue in the South China Sea.

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November 28, 2014

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a new rule under the Clean Air Act—the Clean Power Plan (CPP)—to control carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing stationary electric power plants. In order to better understand the potential impacts of the rule for water consumption and withdrawals in Texas, a state that is experiencing on-going drought, we apply a power generation policy model to evaluate water use along with other economic and environmental indicators. We explore two scenarios: a Baseline scenario and the implementation of the CPP. We find that the state will save water under the CPP be able to meet the final and interim targets with modest incremental effort.

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November 28, 2014

As Texas grapples with severe drought, decision-makers in the state must consider how water use in the state will be affected by a new federal policy - the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which aims to reduce CO2 emissions produced by the power sector.

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November 1, 2014

Nuclear weapons may create greater space for smaller powers to engage in coercive attacks and even limited military operations at lower levels of escalation. This study explores this phenomenon through examination of two case studies: North Korea and Pakistan. The paper addresses key trends and current thinking on nuclear deterrence, reviews recent research on nuclear weapons and coercion, develops testable hypotheses based on this literature, and explores these questions through analysis of North Korean and Pakistani nuclear capabilities, strategy, and doctrine, as well as instances of coercive escalation by both countries. The paper concludes by identifying common themes across the two cases and drawing implications for U.S. policy and military strategy.

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November 1, 2014

CNA Resource Analysis produces Population Representation in the Military Services (also known as "Pop Rep") for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. This report, mandated by the Senate Committee on Armed Services in May 1974 and produced every year since, describes the characteristics of U.S. military personnel in order to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public, with comprehensive, reliable, and consistent data tabulations on military personnel. The report highlights current year and historical personnel trends in the Department of Defense services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force) and the U.S. Coast Guard. It describes demographic characteristics of applicants, accessions, enlisted personnel, and officers and includes information on the socioeconomic characteristics of those accessed into the military. (Except where otherwise noted, data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center).

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November 1, 2014

CNA Resource Analysis produces Population Representation in the Military Services (also known as "Pop Rep") for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. This report, mandated by the Senate Committee on Armed Services in May 1974 and produced every year since, describes the characteristics of U.S. military personnel in order to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public, with comprehensive, reliable, and consistent data tabulations on military personnel. The report highlights current year and historical personnel trends in the Department of Defense services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force) and the U.S. Coast Guard. It describes demographic characteristics of applicants, accessions, enlisted personnel, and officers and includes information on the socioeconomic characteristics of those accessed into the military. (Except where otherwise noted, data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center).

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November 1, 2014

CNA Resource Analysis produces Population Representation in the Military Services (also known as "Pop Rep") for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. This report, mandated by the Senate Committee on Armed Services in May 1974 and produced every year since, describes the characteristics of U.S. military personnel in order to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public, with comprehensive, reliable, and consistent data tabulations on military personnel. The report highlights current year and historical personnel trends in the Department of Defense services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force) and the U.S. Coast Guard. It describes demographic characteristics of applicants, accessions, enlisted personnel, and officers and includes information on the socioeconomic characteristics of those accessed into the military. (Except where otherwise noted, data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center).

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November 1, 2014

CNA Resource Analysis produces the Population Representation in the Military Services (also known as "Pop Rep") report for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. This report, mandated by the Senate Committee on Armed Services in May 1974 and produced every year since, describes the characteristics of U.S. military personnel in order to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with comprehensive, reliable, and consistent data tabulations on military personnel. The report highlights current year and historical personnel trends in the Department of Defense services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force) and the U.S. Coast Guard. It describes demographic characteristics of applicants, accessions, enlisted personnel, and officers and includes information on the socioeconomic characteristics of those accessed into the military. Except where otherwise noted, data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center.

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November 1, 2014

CNA Resource Analysis produces the Population Representation in the Military Services (also known as "Pop Rep") report for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. This report, mandated by the Senate Committee on Armed Services in May 1974 and produced every year since, describes the characteristics of U.S. military personnel in order to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with comprehensive, reliable, and consistent data tabulations on military personnel. The report highlights current year and historical personnel trends in the Department of Defense services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force) and the U.S. Coast Guard. It describes demographic characteristics of applicants, accessions, enlisted personnel, and officers and includes information on the socioeconomic characteristics of those accessed into the military. Except where otherwise noted, data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center.

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November 1, 2014

CNA Resource Analysis produces the Population Representation in the Military Services (also known as "Pop Rep") report for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness. This report, mandated by the Senate Committee on Armed Services in May 1974 and produced every year since, describes the characteristics of U.S. military personnel in order to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with comprehensive, reliable, and consistent data tabulations on military personnel. The report highlights current year and historical personnel trends in the Department of Defense services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force) and the U.S. Coast Guard. It describes demographic characteristics of applicants, accessions, enlisted personnel, and officers and includes information on the socioeconomic characteristics of those accessed into the military. Except where otherwise noted, data are provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center.

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October 31, 2014

This paper examines the forgotten history of counterterrorism in the United States during the 1970s and early 1980s. That period was part of a long wave of terrorism that occurred across the developed world. Within the United States during that period, terrorist groups—including ethno-nationalists, separatists, and Marxist-Leninists—conducted a remarkable number of attacks, some of which resulted in significant injuries and deaths. Many of the policies, strategies, and structures designed to combat domestic terrorism during the 1970-1985 period remain part of the U.S. counterterrorism repertoire. By providing historical perspective, this paper will help today's policymakers understand issues of change and continuity in the terrorist threat; weigh alternative approaches to countering terrorist challenges; and evaluate tradeoffs between public safety and civil liberties.

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October 31, 2014

CNA, sponsored by the Skoll Global Threats Fund, executed two instances of a political decision-making game designed to explore information-sharing and cooperation over water on the Indian subcontinent. The game explored how Bangladesh, China, India, and Pakistan manage water resources between the Brahmaputra, Indus, and Ganges rivers. The first instance of the game took place in January 2014 in the Washington, DC area, and was played primarily by American subject matter experts. The second instance of the game was held in June 2014 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and was played by retired senior officials with policy and military backgrounds, and water experts from all four South Asian countries. This document summarizes the second (regional) instance of the game, identifies strategic insights from the regional instance, and compares the two instances deriving further insights based on that comparison.

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October 31, 2014

This document explores how games compare across cultures and how games can permit senior leaders to address controversial issues. An executive summary can be found at the beginning of the report summarizing the findings.

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October 1, 2014

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October 1, 2014

As part of a broader research project, CNA studied the integration of female Marine aviators during the 1990-2000 period. Using archival and other primary sources, CNA identified key themes that are likely to be relevant as the service considers opening formerly closed occupations and units to women. The history of integration highlights the important role of male peers. If combat arms occupations are eventually opened to women, the Marine Corps should look closely at its assignment policies. For example, a female Marine, upon completion of a combat arms primary military occupational specialty, could be assigned with one or more male peers with whom she graduated.

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October 1, 2014

The Defense Language and National Security Education Office (DLNSEO) funds Boren Scholarships and Fellowships for undergraduate and graduate students abroad to improve their cultural and language skills in areas critical to national security. In exchange for financial assistance, students must to work for the Federal Government for one year after completing the program. DLNSEO asked CNA to evaluate the Boren program by developing and administering a survey to former awardees to identify where they work now and how the Boren Award may have influenced their career paths. Our results indicate that Boren Scholars and Fellows feel that the skills and perspectives gained through the Boren program have been highly influential in their careers. We also found that those who start their employment in the Federal Government tend to stay there and that 40 percent of respondents are currently employed (or had a last known position) in the Federal Government.

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October 1, 2014

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This CNA Interactive Software product is our update with data as of March 31, 2013. It represents the 29th quarterly update of the ISDB since its inception in December 2005.

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October 1, 2014

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This CNA Interactive Software product is our update with data as of June 30, 2013. It represents the 30th quarterly update of the ISDB since its inception in December 2005.

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October 1, 2014

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This CNA Interactive Software product is our update with data as of September 30, 2013. It represents the 31st quarterly update of the ISDB since its inception in December 2005.

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September 29, 2014

This report examines whether the outcomes for career and technical education (CTE) students—high school graduation, achievement levels, postsecondary enrollment, and employment and earnings—reflect a positive impact from CTE participation. The purpose of this study is to examine rural-urban differences in the outcomes associated with CTE in educational attainment and earnings. This study also examines differences between CTE concentrators and nonconcentrators more broadly.

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September 1, 2014

At their 15th year of service, military personnel who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose either: (1) High-3 retirement plan or (2) A reduced retirement (REDUX) and a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service. This paper is designed to help servicemembers make that decision. We describe the REDUX/bonus option as an early, partial cash-out of the servicemember's retirement pension that the member pays back in the form of reduced retirement checks over his or her entire lifetime. We calculate how much the servicemember will "pay back" (the reduction in pension benefits) and we calculate the implied APR or interest rate for this loan. For example, an E-7 who retires at age 38 with 20 years of service is paying an implicit interest rate of 15 percent and would see his or her retired pay reduced by $391,600 if he or she lived to 79 years. Even if the servicemember received the bonus tax free, the repayment amount is over 13 times the amount of the loan ($30,000). If this servicemember lives to 85, the repayment amount would be $517,833. For virtually all servicemembers, choosing REDUX/bonus is a bad (and costly) decision

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September 1, 2014

Over the past several years, the Department of Defense has asked the services to investigate their ability to expand opportunities for women in the military. In support of this initiative, the Marine Corps started a deliberate and measured effort to examine the possible integration of female Marines into ground combat units and Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs) with the development of the Marine Corps Force Integration Plan (MCFIP). In support of this effort, CNA was asked to examine the relationship between the Initial Strength Test (IST) given to recruits at the time of enlistment and early attrition, recruit training injury rates, scores on the Physical Fitness Test (PFT), and scores on the Combat Fitness Test (CFT); and how these relationships vary by gender. This paper presents the results of this examination. We found that the IST score is a good predictor of attrition, injury rates, and PFT and CFT scores, with a higher IST score leading both to lower attrition and injury rates and to higher PFT and CFT scores. We also found, however, that a significant share of men and women who score well on the IST end up scoring poorly on the PFT and CFT; conversely, a significant share who score poorly on the IST, score well on the PFT and CFT. This latter finding suggests that any classification policies for physically-demanding MOSs that are based on IST scores should include provisions to reconsider the MOS classification if recruit training PFT and CFT scores differ significantly from the IST score.

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September 1, 2014

This study, sponsored by Commander Naval Surface Forces, assesses the viability of Executive Officer (XO) to Command Officer (CO) Fleet Up as a long-term command and distribution model for the Surface Warfare (SW) community. Specifically, the research team compared key command- and distribution-related outcomes under Fleet Up to historical and concurrent outcomes associated with the traditional SW model. The team found that Fleet Up may have had positive effects on operational readiness as indicated by Command Excellence Awards for destroyers and on command climate as indicated by enlisted ship and Navy attrition from destroyers, frigates, and dock landing ships. In addition, Fleet Up appears to have increased O5 command and promotion opportunities, but tour-length rigidity may negate this in the future as tour start dates are shifting to the right and command-screened officers are waiting to start command assignments. In the absence of evidence that Fleet Up is not a viable command model for the Surface Warfare community, we recommend continuing with its implementation. However, we also recommend close monitoring of tour start dates for O5 afloat commands and associated O5 command opportunity, as well as conducting another review of Fleet Up effects in about five years' time.

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September 1, 2014

At their 15th year of service, military personnel who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose either: (1) High-3 retirement plan or (2) A reduced retirement (REDUX) and a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service. This paper is designed to help servicemembers make that decision. We describe the REDUX/bonus option as an early, partial cash-out of the servicemember's retirement pension that the member pays back in the form of reduced retirement checks over his or her entire lifetime. We calculate how much the servicemember will "pay back" (the reduction in pension benefits) and we calculate the implied APR or interest rate for this loan. For example, an E-7 who retires at age 38 with 20 years of service is paying an implicit interest rate of 15 percent and would see his or her retired pay reduced by $391,600 if he or she lived to 79 years. Even if the servicemember received the bonus tax free, the repayment amount is over 13 times the amount of the loan ($30,000). If this servicemember lives to 85, the repayment amount would be $517,833. For virtually all servicemembers, choosing REDUX/bonus is a bad (and costly) decision

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September 1, 2014

Drone strikes against individuals have become a heavily used tool in U.S. counterterrorism operations since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. These targeted killing operations have been effective in many respects but they have simultaneously been highly controversial, and hence have sparked growing discussion about possible policy changes.This report presents an analytic framework for evaluating potential policy changes, and focuses on tactical military effectiveness and perceived legitimacy.

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September 1, 2014

This occasional paper presents an analytic framework and lessons-learned process that the U.S. government could use to improve the effectiveness of its lethal action operations. After describing the framework, the paper uses open source data on U.S. counterterrorism operations in Yemen and Pakistan, as well as data on operations in Afghanistan, to illustrate the approach. The paper also provides recommendations for improving the conduct and oversight of future counterterrorism operations.

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September 1, 2014

In 2012, the Okinawa Peace Assistance Center, a security-oriented think tank in Naha, Okinawa, asked CNA to partner on a multi-year study of natural disaster response cooperation and preparation in Okinawa. The Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership funded the study to focus on improving disaster response coordination and cooperation between United States military forces, Japan Self Defense Forces, and local government authorities. This document summarizes the study and its recommendations.

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September 1, 2014

CNA has compiled a brief study of the history of operations assessment in the United States military from the Vietnam War to present day. We address major periods in this history (Vietnam War, late Cold War, Information Age, and Post-9/11 Era) and identify the impact of historical events and trends on the operations assessment process. We have found that the level of emphasis on operations assessment tends to increase as progress is less apparent or harder to measure. There has also been significant oscillation between quantitative and qualitative approaches to assessments as assessors have sought a balance between precision and insight in the assessments process. Certain undercurrents have helped initiate these shifts, including technological advancements and business management practices. We have also found that the existence of two distinct – and often competing – assessment audiences has created pressure on the process. Internally, assessments feed the planning process and therefore require objective inputs. Externally, assessments inform higher leadership, including policymakers, and can be used as a messaging tool to encourage support for a commander's recommendations. The difficulties associated with building effective assessments over the past 13 years has produced consensus that the process is broken; as a result, there is now significant momentum behind an effort to overhaul the operations assessment process in military doctrine and practice.

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August 29, 2014

This is the second of three legal analyses commissioned as part of a project entitled, "U.S. Policy Options in the South China Sea." The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain J. Ashley Roach, Judge Advocate General's Corps, USN (ret.), the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S. policy makers access to work that tests the legal arguments that Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines make in support of their claims, weigh them against the body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort, and if possible, reach a judgment on which country's claim is superior.

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August 29, 2014

This is the third of three legal analyses commissioned as part of a project entitled "U.S. Policy Options in the South China Sea." Experienced U.S. international lawyers, such as Captain Mark Rosen, Judge Advocate General's Corps, USN (ret.), the author of this analysis, were asked to test the various legal arguments that Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines make in support of their claims, weigh them against the body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort, and, if possible, reach a judgment on which country's claim is superior.

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August 29, 2014

This legal analysis was commissioned as part of a project entitled, "U.S. policy options in the South China Sea." The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain Raul "Pete" Pedrozo, USN, Judge Advocate Corps (ret.), the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S. policy makers access to work that tests the various legal arguments that the respective claimants make in support of their claims, and weigh them against the relatively limited body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort.

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August 1, 2014

Every year, more than 1,000 sailors are injured aboard ship in non-catastrophic mishaps. The Naval Safety Center asked CNA to look at ways of updating the acquisition process to make the system more responsive to safety issues identified by the Safety Center and operational commands. CNA undertook a two-pronged approach: (1) examine safety data to identify the number of injuries by type to determine the cause of injuries and (2) interview safety and acquisition personnel to identify the mechanisms that have made the process successful in high-risk safety areas for application to non-catastrophic mishaps. We found that a large number of reported injuries occur because of individual error, such as running into objects that may not be economically solved by design or technical solutions. We recommend a focused approach that seeks to identify mishaps that may be best solved by acquisition solutions will be more likely to yield cost-effective results—such as "distribution" within "electrical" mishaps, warrant greater attention and further study. We further suggest reemphasizing the mishap data collection effort to focus on including more complete information in addition to tracking all mishaps. We also suggest conducting a physical or virtual walk-through of new designs to ensure that adequate human systems integration (HSI), ergonomic, and other safety factors are considered. In addition, we recommend creating a centrally funded safety study account that could be used to identify and investigate safety concerns and increasing the authority of safety personnel outside the high-risk areas. Lastly, we recommend altering incentives by placing greater emphasis on ensuring accurate estimates of total ownership cost (TOC)—including projected mishap costs.

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July 31, 2014

This report describes the application of a new mixed-integer linear programming model of the power sector that accounts for water used for thermal cooling. The model is used to explore a series of scenarios for each of four case studies—the North Grid of China, India, France, and the state of Texas in the United States. For each case study we developed a baseline projection, then modeled a number of scenarios, including limits on water availability, reduced power demand from end-use energy efficiency, expansion of renewable energy, and carbon caps. We provide model output, including water withdrawals and consumption; power generation fuel mix; carbon dioxide emissions; and total system, fixed, and variable costs. Documentation of the model is provided in an appendix. We developed a set of recommended strategies from this analysis, which are presented in detail in a companion report, Capturing Synergies Between Water Conservation and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Power Sector.

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July 31, 2014

In order to gain a more thorough understanding of potential conflicts and synergies between power generation and water use, we developed a mixed-integer linear programming model of the power sector that captures the key relationships with water. We used the model to develop a series of scenarios for each of four case studies—the North Grid of China, India, France, and the state of Texas in the United States. We found that cost-effective options exist that can cut water use, reduce risks to the power sector, and also reduce emissions of conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases from electricity generation. This report focuses on strategies we recommend to capture those synergies.

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July 22, 2014

This study explores how three high schools define and implement mastery learning to promote deeper understanding of academic content and improve college and career readiness for all students.

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July 1, 2014

The Enlisted Steady State Simulation (ESS-Sim) tool was developed to provide insights into attainable levels of enlisted Fleet manning and to estimate the impact of policy changes on manning levels. It simulates the effects of policies and procedures to attain and sustain personnel inventories and to properly distribute them between sea and shore duty. Because Fleet manning is addressed and managed one community at a time, ESS-Sim operates one enlisted community at a time. The tool works in two phases. First, it simulates long-term, steady-state behavior that shows how inventories will evolve over time in response to a set of policies and procedures and obtain a stable steady-state inventory (i.e., it shows what's attainable and sustainable). Second, it simulates the transition from a current inventory towards the steady state to address situations that may arise today or in the near future due to the idiosyncrasies of current inventories.

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July 1, 2014

This paper examines the concept of restoring the caliphate in modern times, a notion that some extremist groups have supported in recent years. It focuses on the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant's declaration of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria in June 2014 and discusses the potential ramifications of this action on the region, the global jihadi movement, and US interests in the broader Muslim world.

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July 1, 2014

The primary objective of the Navy's Manpower, Personnel, Training & Education (MPT&E) system is to "man the fleet" with sailors whose skills and experience levels match those of the job (i.e., billet) requirements. Achieving fleet manning levels that are deemed sufficient by Navy leadership, however, has proved to be a perennial challenge. Providing the right number and mix of sailors to the fleet is a complicated process. Many underlying issues combine and interact in complex ways to produce persistent inventory shortfalls and skill/experience misalignments, which impede the MPT&E system's ability to meet fleet manning goals. This study comprises a broad analysis of fleet manning. It examines the current set of metrics that are used to assess fleet manning, analyzes trends in manning levels, and identifies issues, imbalances, and misalignments that affect manning levels. It also offers recommendations for changes to MPT&E policies, processes, procedures, and funding, that will lead to improvements in fleet manning.

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July 1, 2014

The Navy is implementing a career path for a set of enlisted ratings (Engineman, Machinist Mate, Gas Turbine System Technician, and Fire Controlman-Aegis). This new career path is desired to give sailors more technical experience, especially on shore tours. The purpose of career path is to prepare sailors for senior enlisted positions at sea. Our study shows that implementing these career paths is feasible with the current billet structure and retention behavior. We also show that the majority of current sailors have had all their tours aligned with the new career path. The main area for improvement in sailor proficiency is having all sailors' tours on the same platform.

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July 1, 2014

CNA Corporation conducted this study to determine how the United States can best deepen coordination with India on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) in the Indian Ocean. This study builds on the findings of a 2012 CNA Corporation study, U.S.-India Security Burden-Sharing?, which identified HA/DR as a functional area in which the United States could advance naval relations with India. This is due to the frequency with which natural disasters strike the region, especially the Bay of Bengal, and, for India, the relative domestic political palatability of working with the United States in the aftermath of natural disasters.The United States is increasingly looking to India to contribute to security in the Indian Ocean. Deepening U.S.-Indian economic connections, shared democratic identities, declining U.S. defense budgets, and the rise of China have drawn the United States closer to India as a security partner in the region.To advance bilateral naval ties through coordination on HA/DR, this study determines how the United States can best draw on:India's new disaster response architecture and growing naval capabilities and experiences;lessons learned from case studies of U.S. and Indian relief provision after previous natural disasters in the Indian Ocean; andresearch into likely outcomes of future natural disaster scenarios.

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June 1, 2014

This document consists of a set of appendices to the report "The Economy and Enlisted Retention in the Navy". In the main volume of this report, we estimate the relationship between the state of the civilian economy and Navy retention. Much of the technical detail of that analysis was excluded for brevity and is instead shown and discussed here.

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June 1, 2014

The manning of Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) units is challenging because of geographical recruiting restrictions and the Marine Corps' billet identification code (BIC) assignment policy. In 2008, in an effort to help the services man critical reserve billets, Congress authorized the inactive duty training (IDT) travel reimbursement program. This program allows the Marine Corps to reimburse SMCR Marines who live 150 miles or more from their SMCR units up to $300 per round-trip for travel expenses incurred while traveling to and from IDT. Today, SMCR Marines filling E7-E9, company-grade, and major billets are eligible for IDT travel reimbursement. In FY 2013, 609 Marines were reimbursed for almost $714,000—below the program's $1.6 million budget. Our analysis of SMCR Marines and IDT travel reimbursement participation reveals that 49 percent of program-eligible Marines participated in the program and that, for some Marines, the $300 maximum reimbursement may not cover all travel expenses. We also show that the program is associated with higher manning levels and that program participation increases IDT drill attendance by 24 percentage points and decreases the amount of out-of-pocket expenses incurred by SMCR Marines; therefore, it would be in the Marine Corps interest encourage participation in the IDT travel reimbursement program. Because the program is under executing and has positive effects on unit manning and drill participation, the Marine Corps may want to consider expanding the program to target more hard-to-fill billets. We propose and estimate the costs of the following expansion scenarios that address billet vacancy trends: (1) expand eligibility to Marines who fill specified hard-to-fill billets, (2) expand eligibility to E6 and/or E5 Marines, (3) expand eligibility to Marines in hard-to-fill occupations, and (4) increase the maximum reimbursement to $500. We find that, compared to other manpower tools and incentive programs, the IDT travel reimbursement program is the most flexible at addressing regional, paygrade, occupational manning issues and is the only manpower tool that reduces the out-of-pocket travel expenses for drilling SMCR Marines.

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June 1, 2014

As a result of recent successes of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the U.S. is considering options for assisting the Iraqi government in its efforts to counter ISIS' momentum in the north and west of the country. One option available to the U.S. is to again engage with the Sunni tribes of Iraq, much as it did to counter al Qaeda in Iraq in 2006-2008. This occasional paper provides an overview of Sunni tribes and tribalism in Iraq, and should serve as a pre-deployment primer and field handbook for any personnel who might be sent to engage these tribes.

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May 8, 2014

CNA's Military Advisory Board (MAB) first addressed the national security implications of climate change in our 2007 report—National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. We gather again as a group of 16 retired Generals and Admirals from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps to re-examine climate change in the context of a more informed, but more complex and integrated world, and to provide an update to our 2007 findings.

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April 30, 2014

This report focuses on two of the Northeast Tennessee College and Career Ready Consortium's (NETCO's) course-related strategies: increasing the number of Advanced Placement courses offered and increasing the number of rigorous online learning courses offered at each of NETCO's 30 high schools.

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April 15, 2014

This study responds to a request from the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards to analyze National Board certification among high school teachers in understudied subject areas and locales to help fill gaps in the research literature.

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April 1, 2014

In this paper, we analyze potential "leader versus led" and occupationally based implementation challenges associated with the expansion of gender integration in the Marine Corps. To conduct our analysis, we use data from the Marine Corps Women in Combat Units Survey fielded during the summer of 2012, feedback from unit commanders, sergeants major, and female Marines assigned to ground combat units under the Exception to Policy (ETP) program, and Marine Corps Total Force System personnel data.

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April 1, 2014

This occasional paper addresses the issue of civilian casualties resulting from the U.S. counterterrorism campaign in Pakistan. Besides their importance to U.S. ethical principles regarding the conduct of war, civilian casualties from U.S. operations also affect national security, fueling threats to the U.S. while simultaneously limiting freedom of action and complicating relations with other nations. The paper uses open source data on Pakistan drone strikes, as well as data on air operations in Afghanistan, including drone operations—both data sources point to higher casualty numbers than suggested in official statements. The paper also provides recommendations for reducing civilian casualties in future counterterrorism operations.

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April 1, 2014

Last year, Navy leadership proposed changes to how carrier strike groups (CSGs) may be deployed and manned. A fleet response plan (FRP) was proposed in which CSGs would have two 7-month deployments in a 36-month cycle. The effect on officer retention was a concern. Using recent data from CSGs that had deployed twice in an FRP cycle (i.e., "double-pumped" CSGs), we compared the retention of conventional surface warfare officers (SWOs) and aviators to that of comparable officers in CSGs that were not double-pumped. We found that exposure to a double-pump deployment did not appear to affect retention. Recently, Navy leadership proposed another FRP schedule that includes one 8-month deployment in a 36-month cycle. To increase readiness, officers would be prohibited from rotating during the training and deployment phases of the FRP cycle. We found that when officers were "locked down", average officer crew experience in the CSG was about 33 percent higher by the end of the deployment phase compared to that achieved using a traditional, unconstrained rotation plan. Average crew experience in the lock down model was 25 percent lower during the maintenance phase of the cycle. We found little empirical evidence linking average officer crew experience and readiness.

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April 1, 2014

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This CNA Interactive Software product is our update with data as of December 31, 2013.

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March 21, 2014

At the end of their service obligations, sailors decide whether to reenlist or enter the civilian workforce. This report focuses on the relationship between the economy and reenlistment decisions. Our goal is to identify changing external conditions that will inform Navy leaders about when to adjust retention budgets and policies. Our analysis concludes that the Navy leadership can use Blue Chip Economic Indicators, in a distilled fashion, as well as other gauges, as summaries of external conditions to monitor when changes in the state of the civilian economy may necessitate adjustments of Navy retention levers.

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March 1, 2014

Mark Rosen professional paper

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March 1, 2014

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This CNA Interactive Software product is our update with data as of December 31, 2012. It represents the 28th quarterly update of the ISDB since its inception in December 2005.

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March 1, 2014

Kim Jong-il's death in December 2011 brought about the hereditary transition of power to a third generation. Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il's youngest son, assumed the mantle of Supreme Leader. In a little over a year, he had acquired all of the titles of power, including Supreme Commander, First Secretary of the Korean Workers' Party, and First Chairman of the National Defense Commission. In December 2013, Kim Jong-un violently purged his uncle, Jang Song-taek, in a move that seemingly has accelerated his power consolidation process. He is 30 (or 31) years old. This paper is a snapshot of the leadership and decision-making dynamics during Kim Jong-un's first two years in power.

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March 1, 2014

This study is an analysis of the Trans-Sahara Counter Terrorism Partnership (TSCTP), which seeks to develop a more thorough understanding of the planning and implementation challenges inherent in a multifaceted, interagency, "by, with, and through" approach to regional security. This type of programmatic analysis of TSCTP, from the strategic to the tactical level, relied on extensive fieldwork throughout the Sahel and the Maghreb, and is the only such study of its kind. Despite the uniqueness of a program like TSCTP, it provides a useful base that can be learned from, improved upon, and potentially used as a model for U.S. engagement in other parts of the globe.

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March 1, 2014

This paper describes how readiness and performance metrics can inform budget programming. The paper draws on economic theory, using the production function, which connects military resources to military output (capability). It is assumed that the full production function is not known but some information is known, particularly the impact of small changes in each resource. A key to improved budgeting is the ratio of a resource's marginal product to its price. An example suggests that this ratio helps a budget move sharply to-ward the (unknown to programmers) optimum. A simple simulation suggests that knowing the entire production function would create substantial further improvement, but would require investment in better data. The paper considers whether directing funds toward readiness deficiencies is a good policy. In some cases it is not (where readiness is hard to produce or where a resource does not contribute greatly to output). The paper also considers how an important re-source can have a near-0 marginal product. One case is when there is a lot of the resource relative to other resources.

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February 1, 2014

The 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) required that the Secretary of Defense provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the strength, force structure, force posture, and capabilities required to make the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capable of providing security for their own country so as to prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a safe haven for terrorists. CNA was selected to make this independent assessment. We conclude that the security environment in Afghanistan will become more challenging after the drawdown of most international forces in 2014, that the Taliban insurgency will become a greater threat to Afghanistan's stability in the 2015–2018 timeframe than it is now, and that a small group of al Qaeda members will remain active in the remote valleys of northeastern Afghanistan. We find that, in the likely 2015–2018 security environment, the ANSF will require a total security force of about 373,400 personnel in order to provide basic security for the country and cope with the Taliban insurgency and low-level al Qaeda threat. Having observed them first-hand, we conclude that the ANSF will continue to have significant gaps in capability that will limit their effectiveness after 2014. To be successful, the ANSF will require reallocations of their internal capabilities. They will also require international enabler support—to include advisors—through at least 2018. Our calculated force of 373,400 personnel is slightly smaller than the current ANSF but is significantly larger, and likely to be more expensive, than the force of 228,500 personnel envisioned by the United States and NATO at the Chicago Summit of 2012. We therefore conclude that proceeding with the drawdown of the ANSF as announced at the Chicago Summit will put the U.S. policy goal for Afghanistan at risk. Instead, we recommend that the international community establish a new plan to fund and sustain the ANSF at an end-strength of about 373,400 personnel, with a proportionally sized assistance mission, through at least 2018. If the international community does this, and if the ANSF are successful through 2018, we assess that a negotiated political settlement to end the war will become more likely in the 2019–2023 timeframe. In addition to the independent assessment of the ANSF, CNA was asked to conduct assessments on several related issues: the capabilities of Afghanistan's security ministries; the legal authorities required for a future assistance mission to Afghanistan; the relationship between the ANSF and the Pakistani military; and ANSF reactions to possible future scenarios. The results from these assessments are included in the report.

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February 1, 2014

The 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) required that the Secretary of Defense provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the strength, force structure, force posture, and capabilities required to make the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) capable of providing security for their own country so as to prevent Afghanistan from ever again becoming a safe haven for terrorists. CNA was selected to make this independent assessment. This is a summary report of the independent assessment and its conclusions. We conclude that the security environment in Afghanistan will become more challenging after the drawdown of most international forces in 2014, that the Taliban insurgency will become a greater threat to Afghanistan's stability in the 2015–2018 timeframe than it is now, and that a small group of al Qaeda members will remain active in the remote valleys of northeastern Afghanistan. We find that, in the likely 2015–2018 security environment, the ANSF will require a total security force of about 373,400 personnel in order to provide basic security for the country and cope with the Taliban insurgency and low-level al Qaeda threat. Having observed them first-hand, we conclude that the ANSF will continue to have significant gaps in capability that will limit their effectiveness after 2014. To be successful, the ANSF will require reallocations of their internal capabilities. They will also require international enabler support—to include advisors—through at least 2018. Our calculated force of 373,400 personnel is slightly smaller than the current ANSF but is significantly larger, and likely to be more expensive, than the force of 228,500 personnel envisioned by the United States and NATO at the Chicago Summit of 2012. We therefore conclude that proceeding with the drawdown of the ANSF as announced at the Chicago Summit will put the U.S. policy goal for Afghanistan at risk. Instead, we recommend that the international community establish a new plan to fund and sustain the ANSF at an end-strength of about 373,400 personnel, with a proportionally sized assistance mission, through at least 2018. If the international community does this, and if the ANSF are successful through 2018, we assess that a negotiated political settlement to end the war will become more likely in the 2019–2023 timeframe. In addition to the independent assessment of the ANSF, CNA was asked to conduct assessments on several related issues: the capabilities of Afghanistan's security ministries; the legal authorities required for a future assistance mission to Afghanistan; the relationship between the ANSF and the Pakistani military; and ANSF reactions to possible future scenarios. The summary of the results from these assessments are included in this report.

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January 1, 2014

CNA's Center for Stability and Development recently sent a team toAfghanistan to assess the ANSF, in support of a congressionally mandatedstudy to determine the future requirements for the ANSF's size,structure, capabilities, and posture. We observed the ANSF first-handand conducted hundreds of interviews of Afghan, ISAF, and U.S. officialsat all levels, from national to tactical, in all of Afghanistan's regions.We came to eight major conclusions regarding theperformance and capabilities of the ANSF in 2013. These empirical,independent observations, when taken together, show that the ANSFwere generally successful in 2013 and performed better than mostpeople realize.

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