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CNA Publication Archive: 2012

December 31, 2012

This report addresses the major security issues associated with the Arabian Sea.

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December 1, 2012

On October 16, 2012, CNA hosted a workshop to explore the repercussions of the Libyan Revolu-tion—for Libya itself and for states in the broader Sahel region, particularly Mali. The workshop brought together noted academics and experts from the United States and abroad. This report summarizes the key findings and considerations for policymakers produced during the workshop.

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December 1, 2012

During this study, we conducted extensive literature reviews; interviewed subject matter experts from other countries' militaries, other organizations, and the Marine Corps; and conducted data analysis of existing survey and Marine Corps training data relevant to prospective policy decisions. We also developed a force survey (the Women in Combat Units survey—fielded through Marine Corps systems) intended to solicit the thoughts and attitudes of active component and Selected Reserve Marines about current ground combat exclusion policies and prospective policy changes.

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November 1, 2012

This paper traces the history of the Pakistani government's support to various militant groups since 1947 and its efforts against some of these organizations, with a focus on the 2001-2012 period. The report is largely descriptive and empirical. It identifies major currents in Pakistan's strategic thinking in regard to various militant organizations over time, the evolving nature of these groups, and major operations against them in the last 10 years. It concludes with implications for the draw-down of Western forces in Afghanistan.

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November 1, 2012

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This CNA Interactive Software product represents the 25th quarterly update of the ISDB since its inception in December 2005.

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November 1, 2012

On September 12, 2012, CNA China Studies held a conference to examine the implications of the leadership transition that was about to take place at the 18th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This report discusses five key themes that emerged in the conference.

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November 1, 2012

Since the start of the All-Volunteer Force (AVF), descriptions of the United States' "economic conscription" and "poverty draft" have been based on the belief that the AVF is primarily made up of accessions from poor families and neighborhoods. This "stylized fact" has been used to support changes in existing personnel policies, including reinstatement of the military draft. As discussed in this paper, however, this so-called fact does not reflect analyses of the backgrounds of military accessions. Accessions come from a diverse range of income levels. Furthermore, literature on enlisted accessions entering the military in the past 10 years and our findings for FY10 and FY11 non-prior-service (NPS) accessions show that accessions are predominately less likely to come from lower income brackets. For FY10 and FY11 accessions, we do find differences across services, gender, and race. For example, a higher share of FY10 and FY11 female NPS accessions, compared with their male counterparts, are from census tracts in the lowest and next-to-lowest income quintile. In our paper, we recommend that the services take this into consideration--and potentially conduct further research on gender-based differences in recruiting--if they intend to increase the number of female recruits in the future.

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November 1, 2012

Current Department of Defense (DOD) policies exclude women from ground combat service. In compliance with these policies, the Marine Corps restricts women from classification into combat arms (infantry, artillery, and armor) Primary Military Occupational Specialties (PMOSs) and assignments below the division level in the Ground Combat Element (GCE).1 The Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps (ACMC) asked CNA to examine these policies in order to (1) help inform a decision about whether to change them and (2) better understand how policy changes could affect the Corps' recruiting, manpower management, and training processes. As part of our study, we developed a force survey to solicit Marines' views about current policies and their perceptions about some of the benefits and concerns that may be associated with changing them. The Marine Corps fielded the survey from May 30, 2012 to August 31, 2012. Once the survey closed, the Marine Corps provided us with the deidentified data collected from survey respondents matched with Operational Data Store Enterprise (ODSE) data. This document, which was provided to Marine Corps leaders about three weeks after we received the data, presents our "quick-look" analysis of the survey's results.

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October 1, 2012

The Center for Language, Regional Expertise, and Culture (CLREC) plays a central role in training Navy personnel in the language skills and cultural knowledge required to carry out their missions. CLREC wants to improve its processes to determine how well its products are accepted, to characterize the effects of its work, and to identify unmet training needs. CLREC asked CNA to provide feasible options for obtaining feedback from customers. To develop options for CLREC, CNA drafted survey and interview questions for course participants, their commanding officers, and flag officers; investigated how other organizations have assessed LREC training; and recommended methods for deploying CLREC's assessments. We found that (1) Assessing whether training was effective in supporting mission objectives needs to be done at a later time, not immediately after training has occurred; (2) Data and analyses should focus on determining needs for training, rather than return-on-investment models; (3) Various organizations could field a survey for CLREC data (e.g., Defense Manpower Data Center; Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology). Compared with the other services, the Navy has provided training to a lower percentage of personnel, but the Navy compares favorably in terms of sailors' satisfaction and ratings of training results.

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October 1, 2012

In this paper we examine energy markets in Thailand. We forecast the likely level of demand for several types of renewable energy and energy efficiency products in Thailand over the next several years. We also discuss the potential for U.S.-based small- and medium- sized businesses to export renewable energy and energy efficiency products to Thailand, and discuss actions U.S. firms could take to successfully enter this market.

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September 28, 2012

This report addresses the major security issues associated with the East China and Yellow seas. It is one in a series of five reports that examines the five great maritime basins of the Indo-Pacific Oceans.

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September 28, 2012

This report addresses the major security issues associated with the Bay of Bengal.

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September 1, 2012

CNA's Integrated Ship Database (ISDB) brings together data on naval ships from disparate online government sources such as the Naval Vessel Register, the Military Sealift Command's Ship Inventory, USN Chief of Information's Navy Fact File, the Naval History and Heritage Command's Dictionary of American Naval Fighting Ships, and the Maritime Administration's Naval Defense Reserve Fleet Inventory. This document and its associated database file represent the 24th quarterly update of the ISDB since its inception in December 2005. New to the ISDB with this update is information on the operational ages of ships, both current and historical.

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September 1, 2012

The right of the federal government to reuse, modify, reproduce, perform, display, release, and disclose data¾particularly computer software¾has become an important topic in contract negotiations. We describe the valuation methods used by DOD and industry to estimate software development costs and to assign value to data rights licenses that are broader than the default license described in DFARS. We find that the benefit to DOD arises from the impact of such licenses on future competition and costs. Two things must occur for expanded licenses to be worth the additional cost to DOD: the additional information covered by the license must be transferrable to alternative suppliers, either competing commercial companies or organic DOD facilities. Second, the information covered by the license must be useful to alternative suppliers, to the extent that it actually lowers their production costs.

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September 1, 2012

U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) Air and Maritime Branch asked CNA to examine a public-private partnership (PPP) as a potential framework for maritime security capacity-building in the Gulf of Guinea. Although there are few existing examples of oil and/or maritime-related PPPs, a maritime security PPP could allow a diverse range of domestic, international, public, and private stakeholders to share the cost and the burden of maritime security. The sponsor re-quested that CNA focus on Ghana, a relatively new oil producer, as a case study for this project. With a reputation for good governance and strong economic growth, Ghana presents a unique opportunity to examine the applicability of a PPP model that could help the country avoid the "resource curse" that has afflicted other oil-producing nations such as Nigeria.

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September 1, 2012

The mission of the Defense Language and National Security Education Office (DLNSEO) is to provide strategic guidance on present and future requirements related to language, regional expertise, and culture (LREC). DLNSEO's duties include tracking and reporting on the accession, promotion, retention, and attrition of personnel with language skills, of language professionals, and of Foreign Area Officers. They asked for our help in developing these and other metrics in support of its mission, and in support of achieving the goal of having the required LREC capabilities to meet current and projected needs. t form the foundation for determining the status of language readiness: a measure of the current number of servicemembers with any level of proficiency that could fill current and contingency requirements (fill) and a measure of the extent to which these servicemembers satisfy the full range of these requirements in terms of proficiency in all language modalities, paygrade, and so on (FIT). We proposed additional metrics that provide the ability to (1) drill down to more detailed information and pinpoint causes of problems, and (2) provide early warning that deficiencies in LREC capabilities might arise in the near term to the longer term.

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September 1, 2012

On August 9, 2012 CNA hosted a workshop examining trends in Naval developments in Asia. As the PLA Navy demonstrates genuine competence and professionalism on distant sea operations, despite being oriented to peacetime missions, this is, ironically, raising concerns among littoral states of the Indo-Pacific over the security implications of a PLA navy that is becoming more expeditionary. Clearly the introduction of modern amphibious ships, and, shortly, an aircraft carrier force, provides the PLAN with a credible power-projection capability. This emerging capability is, in turn, creating a demand by littoral states for area-denial capabilities such as submarines and land-based aircraft with anti-ship cruise missiles. This workshop explored this interaction.

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September 1, 2012

Four years of civilian rule uninterrupted by military intervention has not better enabled the Government of Pakistan to tackle the country's chronic problems. The government has been further beleaguered by a string of crises in recent years, and it can expect greater regional instability as the United States prepares to draw down its forces in Afghanistan. In August 2012, CNA hosted a workshop to discuss challenges in Pakistan's future. Several panelists presented perspectives on the state of Pakistan's democratic experiment, its ability to cope with developing crises, and the future of the US-Pakistan relationship.

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September 1, 2012

During FY12, Navy Medicine continued the implementation of its patient-centered medical home model of care known as Medical Home Port. Prior CNA evaluations of Navy Medicine's first medical home in the internal medicine clinic at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center showed that its medical home was improving access, quality, and cost. Now that Navy Medicine has implemented its Medical Home Port model more broadly, it asked CNA to evaluate the impact of Medical Home Port in clinics that are substantially different than the Walter Reed medical home. Specifically, we evaluated medical homes in family practice and pediatrics at NH Pensacola, NH Oak Harbor, NHC Charleston, and NHC Quantico, which have substantially younger and healthier enrollee populations that the Walter Reed medical home. The results show substantial reductions in per member per month cost for patients with and without chronic conditions. However, because those with chronic conditions costs 2 to 3 times more than those without chronic conditions, the medical home model has a greater dollar cost reduction for those with a chronic condition. These results are similar to what we found with our evaluation of the Walter Reed medical home.

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September 1, 2012

No plan survives contact with the enemy. The aphorism is well known and accepted, at least at the operational level of war. Senior military leaders, as well as academics, attribute that outcome to the fact that modern military operations are complex adaptive systems. That is, they involve diverse, multifaceted elements that interact with and adjust to changes in the environment. This paper explores the ramifications of that perspective for operational assessment processes and proposes a new concept. The analysis proposes that an evolutionary paradigm can better accommodate and facilitate an assessment process that is more useful and more accepted by senior military decision-makers: It leans to the tactical side, where near-term progress is more obvious and fruitful policy courses of action can be internalized for subsequent action. More important, it responds more directly to the key question of what to do next. At this stage, the analysis is still somewhat conceptual, but there are promising tools that might bring more rigor to the process.

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September 1, 2012

For the past several years, the United States government has been using social media platforms as a tool of foreign policy. While the use of social media for this purpose has expanded rapidly, it remains a new and developing field. This occasional paper is an initial look at the ways in which social media can be used, and is being used, by the US government as a tool of foreign policy. It includes considerations for policymakers and practitioners who are exloring the utility of these platforms.

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August 1, 2012

The co-terminus of the Yellow and East China Seas has all the ingredients necessary to become the cockpit of competition in East Asia for the foreseeable future. Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul all have important sovereignty and EEZ disputes in these waters. Disputes over seabed resources and fishing occur frequently. This basin is essentially home waters for the navies of China, Japan, and both Koreas where they routinely operate, and in the case of the two Koreas, engage in combat. Over the last 13 years, six combat clashes around the Northern Limit Line have taken place. These waters have enormous economic import for China and Korea. Commercial traffic must traverse these waters to reach all of Korea's major ports and six of China's ten largest ports. Taiwan and the Senkaku/Diayou Islands are at the southern end of the East China Sea and, because of security obligations are the two most likely flashpoints between China and the United States. The workshop, held at CNA on May 2, 2012 explored these issues in depth

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August 1, 2012

This CNA study examines how to better support a top-down programming process through a more complete understanding of shore support execution costs in addition to knowing the location of Navy units and their shore requirements. The main research product is a Shore Cost Allocation Evaluator (SCALE) tool which categorizes and segments Navy units into warfighting and support areas, determines which units have similar shore support characteristics, connects units to the installations supporting them, and captures the authorized personnel loading for each unit. It also links the various fiscal year financial obligations for shore support to the host installations. Using the tool we determined for FY 2011 that the average shore cost per person was $5,926, the average shore cost per square foot equivalent of real property inventory was $9.39, and the average administrative office space allocation was 87.9 square feet per full-time person.

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July 1, 2012

This CNA study examines the Navy's shore infrastructure requirements setting process, recent historical inventory trends, and current inventory capacity in light of Navy force structure changes. We identify five risk areas in the current basic facility requirements process which allow inventory data inaccuracies, inconsistencies, and variations to occur. Our 10 year trend analysis shows that the number of facilities has remained constant and the total area in square foot equivalents has declined by an average 1.4 percent each year. However the plant replacement value has grown by 2.3 percent each year in constant FY 2011 dollars. We determined that the cost growth was due primarily to general construction industry unit cost increases. We found that the available capacity retention remains high at 23 percent although the documented deficit shortfalls are also large at 22.7 percent of the total inventory. We recommended that maintenance, ammunition storage, administrative offices, and unaccompanied personnel housing facilities should be key areas for future consolidation/reduction efforts.

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July 1, 2012

The Marine Corps Fitness Report (FitRep) system is the main determinant of an officer's career designation, promotion, and opportunities for command and resident schooling. The Director, Manpower Management Division, asked CNA to review whether the system is accomplishing what the Corps intended. She requested that we focus on officers and consider whether the new system is keeping inflation in check, ensuring fairness for all officers, and helping the various boards select the "best and most qualified" officers. We analyze FitRep marks, their relationship to characteristics of the Marine reported on and the reporting chain, and the way these marks are present to boards. We also review the FitRep training curriculum and insights from various stakeholders. Based on these observations, we conclude that the system is well designed but there is room for improvement in training and in presentation to boards, and issues of possible concern that require further monitoring.

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July 1, 2012

In this paper, we examine the Selected Reserve (SelRes) affiliation behavior of prior-service (PS) Marines. Using data on enlisted Marines and Marine officers who left active duty and transitioned to the Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) between October 2001 and September 2011, we estimate the effect of Marine characteristics and service history (active duty and reserve) on the SelRes affiliation decision. We find that SelRes affiliation behavior depends on the amount of time a Marine spends in the IRR after transition. Most SelRes affiliation occurs within one year of a Marine leaving active duty and the more time spent in the IRR diminishes the likelihood of a PS Marine affiliating with the SelRes. We also find that PS recruiting may be more difficult during or right after periods of high operational tempo and that there are marked differences in SelRes affiliation between Marines who entered the Marine Corps before and after September 11, 2001.

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July 1, 2012

As part of its review of restrictions to women's service in certain military occupations and assignments, the Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps asked CNA to examine the practices of foreign militaries and other physically demanding professions. In this report, we review the policies and practices of four foreign militaries—Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel—and two physically demanding professions—fire fighting (including smokejumpers) and Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) policing—to determine what can be learned about women's physical abilities and the effects of gender integration on unit (or organizational) dynamics.

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June 1, 2012

At their 15th year of service, military personnel who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose either: (1) High-3 retirement plan or (2) A reduced retirement (REDUX) and a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service. This paper is designed to help servicemembers make that decision. We describe the REDUX/bonus option as an early, partial cash-out of the servicemember's retirement pension that the member pays back in the form of reduced retirement checks over his or her entire lifetime. We calculate how much the servicemember will "pay back" (the reduction in pension benefits) and we calculate the implied APR or interest rate for this loan. For example, an E-7 who retires at age 38 with 20 years of service is paying an implicit interest rate of 14.8% and would see his or her retired pay reduced by $381,203 if he or she lived to 79 years. Even if the servicemember received the bonus tax free, the repayment amount is over 12 times the amount of the loan ($30,000). If this servicemember lives to 85, the repayment amount would be $504,085. For virtually all servicemembers, choosing REDUX/bonus is a bad (and costly) decision.

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June 1, 2012

At their 15th year of service, military personnel who are eligible and intend to serve for 20 years must choose either: (1) High-3 retirement plan or (2) A reduced retirement (REDUX) and a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service. This paper is designed to help servicemembers make that decision. We describe the REDUX/bonus option as an early, partial cash-out of the servicemember's retirement pension that the member pays back in the form of reduced retirement checks over his or her entire lifetime. We calculate how much the servicemember will "pay back" (the reduction in pension benefits) and we calculate the implied APR or interest rate for this loan. For example, an E-7 who retires at age 38 with 20 years of service is paying an implicit interest rate of 14.8% and would see his or her retired pay reduced by $381,203 if he or she lived to 79 years. Even if the servicemember received the bonus tax free, the repayment amount is over 12 times the amount of the loan ($30,000). If this servicemember lives to 85, the repayment amount would be $504,085. For virtually all servicemembers, choosing REDUX/bonus is a bad (and costly) decision.

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June 1, 2012

In this paper, we examine the Selected Reserve (SelRes) affiliation behavior of prior-service (PS) Marines. Using data on enlisted Marines and Marine officers who left active duty and transitioned to the Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) between October 2001 and September 2011, we estimate the effect of Marine characteristics and service history (active duty and reserve) on the SelRes affiliation decision. We find that SelRes affiliation behavior depends on the amount of time a Marine spends in the IRR after transition. Most SelRes affiliation occurs within one year of a Marine leaving active duty and the more time spent in the IRR diminishes the likelihood of a PS Marine affiliating with the SelRes. We also find that PS recruiting may be more difficult during or right after periods of high operational tempo and that there are marked differences in SelRes affiliation between Marines who entered the Marine Corps before and after September 11, 2001.

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May 1, 2012

The growing role of irregular security units such as the Afghan Local Police (ALP) has sparked fresh interest in the subject of community-based defense forces and counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. Seeking lessons that seem applicable in the Afghan context, analysts are exploring cases ranging from the Civilian Irregular Defense Group in Vietnam, to the Sons of Iraq. However, a particularly relevant case has received relatively little analytical scrutiny. Across the border in Pakistan, government authorities have, since the late 19th century, organized, trained, equipped and paid Pashtun tribesmen to provide local security. The Frontier Corps (FC) is the most prominent of these groups. Under the British, the Frontier Corps was an instrument in a wider system of indirect imperial control. Since independence in 1947, Pakistan has employed the Frontier Corps to police the Afghan border and tribal areas and in so doing, has helped free up the army to prepare for conventional military operations. This primary purpose of this paper is to provide historical and contemporary context for analysts, practitioners, and decision-makers who focus on local security structures in conflict and post-conflict environments.

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May 1, 2012

In its 2009 report, the U.S. Global Change Research Program stated that climate change impacts are already being observed across the United States, and ecosystems and society are going to have to adapt to the ongoing changes in climate. As a result, Executive Order 13514 of October 5, 2009, directed the formation of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force, jointly chaired by the Council on Environmental Quality, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and staffed with representatives from more than 20 federal agencies, including the Department of Defense (DOD). The task force recently recommended that the federal government expand and strengthen the nation's capacity to prepare for climate change. The task force further recommended that federal agencies make adaptation a standard part of agency planning.

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April 1, 2012

The Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan based on the President's Budget for FY 2012 calls for building more but less expensive ships in the near term. In combination with planned ship service-life extensions, this plan will increase the size of the surface force. In the past decade, manpower costs have increased by nearly 11 percent, while active endstrength has decreased by over 12 percent. Though current forecasts call for a stabilized active-duty endstrength, further increases in manpower cost rates could force the Navy to reduce endstrength. The fact that the current shipbuilding plan appears to expand the size of the surface force at a time when the Navy faces pressures to stabilize manpower costs raises concerns about whether the Navy will have sufficient endstrength to man the future surface force. This study investigates these concerns by answering such questions as (a) how will surface fleet manpower requirements change in the next 30 years, (b) which surface communities will experience significant changes in their afloat manpower requirements, (c) if such changes occur, what problems could they pose, and (d) how will force structure cuts proposed in the FY 2013 budget impact future requirements?

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April 1, 2012

Current Department of Defense (DOD) policy excludes women from assignment to units below the brigade level whose primary mission is direct combat on the ground. In the Marine Corps, this policy restricts women from classification into combat arms military occupational specialties (MOSs), including those in the infantry, artillery, or tank and assault amphibious vehicle occupational fields (occfields). It also restricts the assignment of female Marines below the division level in the ground combat element (GCE)—except for the headquarters battery in artillery regiments.

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March 1, 2012

The Department of Defense's Rapid Reaction Technology Office (RRTO) issued a "Strategic Communication Science and Technology Plan" in 2009 that surveyed the government's programs in this area and their gaps. To keep abreast of the latest technological developments, this report is being updated for FY 2012. The updated report discusses domains for future investment in research and development (R&D); identifies gaps and proposes new science and technology (S&T) initiatives; and surveys current S&T programs. The updated report finds that there has not been adequate investment in the technological gaps identified by RRTO in 2009. Furthermore, the U.S. government has made limited R&D investments in using social interaction technology, persuasive technology, and immersive virtual environments and simulation games for communication and persuasion—areas of R&D not discussed at length in RRTO's 2009 report. CNA reached this conclusion after surveying current U.S. government programs, reviewing recent academic literature on technology for communication and persuasion, and consulting with experts inside and outside the U.S. government. Based on its analysis of these gaps, CNA has identified several areas for investment, particularly in the digital realm.

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March 1, 2012

Military Pay and Compensation Branch (N130) asked CNA to expand upon a 2010 study of whether Sea Duty Incentive Pay (SDIP) increases manning at sea. In that study, CNA found that SDIP was a cost-effective tool for inducing voluntary sea duty extensions among sailors in eligible ratings and paygrades. In this study, we return to that analysis and use a more appropriate model and set of variable definitions. We continue to find that SDIP is effective at increasing sea duty among eligible ratings and paygrades. In addition, we find that SDIP is even more cost-effective than previously thought. We also examine two SDIP "best practices." The first pertains to when to add/remove ratings and paygrades to/from SDIP eligibility. We suggest that sea fill rate thresholds should be applied as a rough guideline, where these thresholds reflect the level of risk the Navy is willing to accept as a result of undermanning at sea. The second SDIP best practice we explore is the setting of SDIP payment rates and what factors influence this decision. We argue that payment rates should be increasing in the extent of undermanning at sea, degree of mission criticality, paygrade, prescribed sea tours, and degree of skill.

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March 1, 2012

This report presents a capstone summary of the results of the Options and Opportunities for Whole-of-Government Contributions in the Campaign against International Piracy Project. It addresses the issues of the incidence of piracy in Africa, the pirate enterprises in Somalia and the Gulf of Guinea viewed as businesses, the international and national legal authorities for counterpiracy, and our framework for a whole-of-government approach to counterpiracy.

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March 1, 2012

This paper will examine the China factor in the relationship between the United States and Vietnam and assess the extent to which shared concerns over China drive and limit cooperation between the two countries. It begins with an overview of the current state of U.S.-Vietnam relations and looks at the numerous factors drawing the two nations closer together. It then examines China's importance to Vietnam as well as some of the sources of tension in their bilateral relationship that have led Hanoi to seek assistance and support from abroad. This paper concludes with an analysis of the likelihood of further U.S.-Vietnam cooperation in light of Vietnam's tensions with China, the possible forms such cooperation may take, as well as the factors that may limit bilateral cooperation from reaching its full potential.

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March 1, 2012

This CNA study documents the development of a facilities consolidation/demolition project evaluation tool. This new tool will be used to compare submitted projects against each other in order to select the best projects for programming. The tool evaluates project contributions to shore footprint reduction, facility mission criticality, facility category code utilization improvement, facility condition rating, and facility age in addition to financial return on investment (FROI). The cROI tool produces a FROI threshold check—measured in years to payback—and a single consolidated project benefit ranking score. We also provided five recommendations relating to the future use of the cROI evaluation tool.

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March 1, 2012

This publication describes and analyzes the major U.S. Navy capstone documents of the 1990s: The Way Ahead, The Navy Policy Book, . . . From the Sea, Naval Doctrine Publication 1, Forward . . . From the Sea, The Navy Operational Concept, Anytime Anywhere, and the Navy Strategic Planning Guidance. It complements and supplements "U.S. Naval Strategy in the 1990s," published by the Naval War College Press in 2006.

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March 1, 2012

This publication provides background and context essential to understand the U.S. Navy of the 1990s, and especially its capstone documents. As such, it is a companion piece to the CNA publication "U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies and Concepts (1991-2000)," but it also can be used as a stand-alone document describing and analyzing the U.S. Navy of the 1990s and its larger milieu, including world and national trends and events, and relationships with the other U.S. military services as well as allied naval forces.

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February 1, 2012

This paper examines the past, present, and future of the relationship between the U.S. Navy (U.S.N) and the Israeli Navy (IN). The first part of the paper traces the development of the IN in the twenty-first century. Key topics in U.S.N-IN relations from 1967 through the early 1980s are examined. The second section of the paper assesses the current state of the U.S.N-IN relationship and identifies developments in the present security environment that could complicate relations between the two services. These include American and Israeli tensions with Iran; Israeli friction with Turkey; uncertainty about the future of Egyptian-Israeli relations; Israel's increasing isolation in the region; the changes brought about by the Arab Spring; and Israel's growing cooperation with India. Finally, the paper looks at future opportunities for U.S.N-IN relations, emphasizing that a key role for the U.S.N will be to encourage the IN to pursue a course of caution and moderation in dealing with its regional security challenges.

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February 1, 2012

We assess the costs and benefits that would result if the Navy were it to substitute lump-sum Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (LSSRBs) for its current program of anniversary payment SRBs (APSRBs). The principal argument in favor of this policy change is to capitalize on sailors' preferences for receiving payment in the here and now: in front-loading payments, the Navy could offer smaller SRBs without reducing the value that Service member's place on these bonuses. The principal argument against paying out lump-sum SRBs is that the prospect of receiving anniversary payments acts as an incentive for sailors to remain in the Navy during their term of reenlistment, and eliminating these would increase losses from the Service. Our analysis suggests that adopting LSSRBs would likely result in significant savings over the long term, even accounting for the possibility of increased losses (these savings would be especially great for smaller SRBs that are offered for shorter reenlistments). We also find that the policy change could have substantial non-monetary costs and benefits: adopting LSSRBs would result in the SRB program being easier to manage when the economy is contracting, but more difficult to manage when the economy is expanding.

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February 1, 2012

This study reviews and assesses strategies, concepts, doctrines, policies, and trends in strategic thinking, as reflected in documents published by five U.S. national security entities: National and joint authorities (including the President, the Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS), the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), and the Joint Staff); and the U.S. Army, Air Force, Coast Guard and Marine Corps. From these reviews and assessments, the study then derives implications and recommendations for a potential U.S. Navy refreshment of the basic maritime strategy document A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (CS 21) signed in October 2007 by the heads of the three maritime armed services. Key questions answered are: What are the most salient current strategic concepts/policies/trends in the joint arena and in the other four armed services? What are the potential implications for Navy strategy from each of the five assessed areas (national/joint and other four services)? How should the national/joint and other four services' strategies/ concepts/ trends in strategic thinking be reflected in future maritime strategy updates?

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January 1, 2012

The Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) Development division at Regional Command (Southwest) requested this study to examine what government officials, community leaders, and ordinary residents in Helmund want from the police. The command was concerned that unless Afghans want the type of police force the international community is training, the police force will not be maintained after international forces withdraw. This paper examines not only what residents of Helmund say they want from police, but also the Afghan government's perspective, how police operate in Helmund province today, and how the police view their role. The paper also reviews why the police have difficulty engaging with the public in Helmund and recommends that police advisors take a multi-pronged approach to demonstrate the value of community engagement.

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January 1, 2012

The CNA 2011 Year in Review highlights some of the research, in unclassified form, from the 2011 calendar year.

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