This paper, which builds from an earlier paper written on covert versus overt provocations for the 6th CNA-KIMS workshop, examines North Korea's provocation and escalation calculus, as well as the timing inherent in its brinksmanship decision-making. It contains information up through the end of May 2015.
CNA convened an executive session on July 9, 2015, the third such session held at CNA since September 2014. This session brought together police leaders, police trainers, government agency leaders, police researchers, and community advocates (several of whom served on the President’s Task Force) to engage in a guided discussion on the future of policing in America, with the President’s Task Force report as the backdrop.
This study aims to model the landscape of the Marcellus Shale region to predict how it may change in the future in response to the expansion of natural gas extraction, and, in particular, what impact this may have on the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Our approach combined geospatial analysis and statistical modeling to create a probability surface that predicts the most favorable locations for the placement of future wells based on the location of existing wells. Using the probability surface and an estimate of the number of wells that would be needed to fully exploit the shale resource, we estimated the future landscape of development in the Interior Marcellus Shale and DRB. Using affected subwatersheds and counties as study areas, we then investigated potential impacts associated with land cover, water and wastewater management, water quality due to changes in land cover, air emissions, and health risk factors. The results are intended to help decision-makers and the public understand the scale of the potential impacts.
Civil affairs (CA) forces will operate increasingly in the "New Normal" environment, a period of instability and low-level conflict where maintaining persistent engagement with partners and allies will be critical to deterring and managing conflict and unrest. In this new environment, CA forces play a critical role in conflict prevention and in addressing the root causes of conflict. When crises do arise, CA forces can leverage the influence they have built in an area via a minimal footprint approach and blend with crisis response forces where necessary. Highlighting earlier work on civil affairs that CNA has conducted for the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps, this occasional paper explores challenges and opportunities for the joint CA force to conduct civil-military operations in the "New Normal" and charts a way ahead for the CA community to operate in this new environment.
This occasional paper describes the outcome of a one-day event at CNA involving world-class experts on Russia, its military, and its actions in Crimea and Ukraine, as well as numerous Marines from a variety of U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) commands. While we see it as unlikely that U.S. Marines will directly confront Russian Federation forces in the near future, other nations and non-state actors who are potential U.S. adversaries (and who Marines may face on the battlefield) are closely observing Russia’s use of ambiguous warfare and will likely modify their own strategy and tactics as a result. Therefore, in this report we discuss the lessons from Crimea and Ukraine, how other adversaries might militarily adapt as a result of Russia’s success, and how the USMC should be thinking about its future acquisitions, tactics, training, and operations as a result.