Executive Summary

Why Experience Matters

This study examines the national security implications of a transition away from conventional petroleum-based fuels in the U.S. transportation sector.

Our national security focus is based primarily on our experiences as senior military leaders and offers perspectives that differ from traditional energy analysis. We consider geopolitical, economic and environmental aspects of energy as a matter of course, but view the full suite of issues through a security prism honed in military operations.

Collectively, we bring to this work over 400 years of military experience. As a result, the findings, recommendations, and opinions we proffer are grounded in that collective experience. It is what makes this report different from more traditional research reports. However, we have not arrived at our conclusions without substantial analysis, dialogue, and deliberation.

Over the course of our research, we balanced and broadened our perspectives through robust meetings with renowned experts from academia, think tanks, policy makers, senior members of the current and former administrations, and industry. Throughout our research, we have worked closely with the CNA analysts to understand fully the geopolitical implications of oil and alternative fuels, and drew heavily on their synthesis of the existing work on alternative fuels and their futures.

It is through this iterative, vigorous, and participatory process that we reached the consensus of views and collective opinions presented in this report. Executive Summary

The specific questions we address in this report are:

1. How does America’s transportation sector dependence on oil affect our geopolitical, economic, environmental, and security landscape?  1a. What are the strategic implications of the United States moving away from oil as a transportation fuel?

2. What are the potential positive and negative impacts that will emerge under large scale adoption of various alternative fuels or combinations of fuels?

3. What policies should the United States consider to ensure that our national transportation fuel transition enhances America’s energy, economic, climate and national security?

This work builds upon reports previously issued by the Military Advisory Board:

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change noted that climate change will be a threat multiplier in many global regions. It noted that climate change, national security and energy dependence are a related set of global issues. Based in part on this report, Congress requested a National Intelligence Assessment on climate and security, which ultimately echoed many of the original CNA findings, and directed DOD to include national security implications of energy and climate change in the Quadrennial Defense Review.

Powering America’s Defense highlighted the ways in which fuel inefficiencies imperil US troops. It also described how America’s fragile electricity grid represents a clear and present danger to U.S. security.

Powering America’s Economy explored the connections between the economy, energy, and military strength and outlined steps the DOD could take to help lead a transition to a clean energy economy.