Research for WEAPON SYSTEMS

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Strategic Management System for Navy Acquisition
March 1, 2006
This study is the fourth in a series of reports that collectively support a revitalized process to assess and track the portfolio of programs overseen by the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and Acquisition) (ASN(RDA)). The previous studies were: 1. Improving Metrics for Acquisition Management, Gary E. Christle, November 2001. (CNA Annotated Briefing D0004960.A2/Final). 2. Improving Acquisition Metrics, by Gary E. Christle, Dr. W. Brent Boning and Viki Johnson, October 2002 (CNA Annotated Briefing D0006466.A2/Final). 3. Implementing Acquisition Metrics: Portraying Program Risk for Acquisition Executives, Gary E. Christle, June 2004 (CNA Annotated Briefing D0010289.A2/Final). This report describes an improved process for assessing and overseeing the Navy portfolio of acquisition programs. The study proposes a Strategic Management System for the ASN (RDA). Proposal follows an industry model using an annual operating plan to support a balanced scorecard approach to accountability.
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People's War at Sea: Chinese Naval Power in the Twenty-First Century
March 1, 1996
The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) to the year 2010. In addition to an examination of the major countries of the region, of security trends in Asia (e.g., demographics and weapon development), and of future economic trends in the APR, this assessment warranted an evaluation of Chinese naval capabilities over the period of interest. This research memorandum presents the results of that evaluation. Much of the debate over China's future naval capabilities focuses on whether China will soon have a 'bluewater' navy. In this analysis, we argue that one of China's strategic objectives is to develop a regional navy. We define 'regional' or 'greenwater' navy as a navy capable of effectively achieving China's current regional aspirations (e.g., blockade of Taiwan, seizure of one or more islands in the Spratlys, sustainment of a naval force in the South China Sea, and the ability to inflict damage upon an intervening foreign navy).
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An Analysis of 4855 Data: Combat System Availability Estimates and the Effect of Usage on Failure
October 1, 1986
Using the Navy's 4855 data, estimates of selected combat systems' availability rates are computed and the effect on reliability of turning the systems on and off is determined by analyzing the system's history of being on, off, and broken. Two models are used that describe the time until failure when a system is in either a 'secure' or an 'up' state.
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Evaluation of Models and Techniques for Estimating the Effects of Competition
January 1, 1986
An evaluation of past efforts to estimate the savings due to the use of competition in weapon system production programs is presented. The evaluation was based on the research literature available from the historical efforts. The evaluation of the literature discusses in detail the analytical models and techniques used in the analyses of price formation in sole-source and competitive production programs, the data bases used and reported for the programs studied, and the results and conclusions reported in the literature. The memorandum concludes that the models and techniques used to assess the price effects of competition are immature and inadequate to sort out the effects of comptetition sought by the analyses; that the data bases used in the literature are incomplete, of uneven quality, and may be seriously biased; and that the resulting estimates of savings due to the use of competition are of uneven validity.
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The Economics of Multiyear Contracting
April 1, 1982
This paper analyzes the effects of legislative changes sought by DoD on the price of weapons systems. Budgeting and funding practices are also discussed because these practices play an important role in choosing the best type of contract.
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CNA COMPUTER PROGRAM 19-69, WEAPON PATTERN EFFECTIVENESS III
June 1, 1974
A Monte Carlo simulation program has been written in FORTRAN to compute hit probabilities of a pattern of weapons against a maneuvering target. The aimpoint is specified, and a bivariate normal aiming error is assumed for the weapon pattern; individual weapons in the pattern are assumed to have bivariate normal (ballistic) dispersion errors. Target initial velocity, time spent in a straight leg, turning radius, and time spent in the turn are specified, and a normal distribution are included. Flow charts, program listing, and sample inputs and outputs are provided.
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EVALUATING FUTURE TACTICAL AIR WEAPON SYSTEMS
June 1, 1974
Methods of evaluating future offensive air weapon systems for non-nuclear war are discussed. New criteria which avoid many of the weaknesses inherent in previous approaches are proposed. Some of the implications of improved air defenses and various types of basing are surveyed. Supersedes 10 000665.00.
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THE RELIABILITY OF A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH SPARES, REPAIR, AND CANNIBALIZATION
June 1, 1974
In this paper, the reliability of a complex system is investigated. Special cases of the system include the 'spare parts' or 'standby redundancy' problem and the 'repair' problem. Also included in the system is the opportunity for 'cannibalization'. A theorem is given indicating the proper use of this activity. The spare parts problem and the repair problem are analyzed separately. Methods of combining the two analyses are then given in order to obtain bounds and approximations to total system reliability.
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