Research for Vulnerability

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DEPENDENCE, RISK, AND VULNERABILITY
July 1, 1981
This paper provides a framework that conceives vulnerability as a function of both dependence and the risk that hurt will be imposed. Included is an approach for reducing vulnerability.
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A REPRINT OF A METHOD OF ESTIMATING PLANE VULNERABILITY BASED ON DAMAGE OF SURVIVORS
October 1, 1980
This research contribution consists of a series of eight memoranda originally published by the Statistical Research Group at Columbia University for the National Defense Research Committee in 1943 on methods of estimating the vulnerability of various parts of an aircraft based on damage to surviving planes. The methodology presented continues to be valuable in defense analysis and, therefore, has been reprinted by the Center for Naval Analyses in order to achieve wider dissemination.
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A MODEL OF CARRIER-SUBMARINE INTERACTIONS
June 1, 1974
Analytic expressions for the probability that a single aircraft carrier, opposed by submarines, can remain on station for a specified length of time are discussed in this research contribution. The threat from both torpedo and cruise-missile submarines is considered, but the threat from aircraft is not. Expressions for expected submarine losses are derived. Expressions are also developed to show how the probability of remaining on station improves as the carrier's resistance to damage increases. A wide variety of ASW force compositions and tactics can be represented in the parameters of the model. Appendix C presents an alternative way to formulate the problem and derive the quantities mentioned above. The two methods produce results that are in excellent agreement. The intention of the authors is to provide a tool that can be used to improve carrier effectiveness through the study of tactics and force interactions.
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EFFECT ON U-BOAT PERFORMANCE OF INTELLIGENCE OBTAINED FROM DECRYPTION OF ALLIED COMMUNICATIONS
April 1, 1954
Examination of the War Diary of the German Communication Submarines (ComSubs) has made it possible to estimate the character and extent of intelligence obtained by the decryption of Allied radio messages pertaining to convoy operations in the North Atlantic during World War II, and to determine the effect of such intelligence on the capability of the U-Boats to contact convoys and sink ships. It is estimated that the availability of timely usable decryption intelligence increased the contact rate twofold over that which they would have obtained without it; probably over 60 sinkings in excess of the expected number if they had been deprived of decryption intelligence. These calculations help in estimating a valid measure of effectiveness of current and future submarines in anti-convoy operations when decryption intelligence is not available.
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