Research for United States Navy

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July 1, 1999
This briefing examines bootcamp attrition in the Navy and the Marine Corps, comparing recent attrition rates, historical rates, and FY99 predictions. Recent bootcamp attrition in the Navy has been considerably higher than in the past; however, Marine Corps bootcamp attrition is well within the historical averages for both males and females. The briefing also examines Marine Corps bootcamp attrition for regulars and reserves, looking at the two Marine Corps Recruit Depots (MCRDs) in San Diego and Paris Island.
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June 1, 1999
This paper summarizes phase 1 development of an agent-based interactive game called SimNavy. The purpose of the game is to teach users through simulated experience how best to manage the Navy's resources in order to reach operational objectives. This paper provides a description of the SimNavy concept and the role CNA could play in its future development.
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May 1, 1999
This report serves as the Navy's formal evaluation for the 1999 Puget Sound Area Oil Spill Exercise. The report includes exercise results, lessons learned, and recommendations. The basic aim of the exercise was to improve the Navy's ability to interface with the local response community in the effort to organize and respond to a worst-case oil spill and to test the response strategies set forth in the regions Area Contingency Plan and Geographic Response Plans. The report examines both the success of the exercise in meeting its fundamental goals and the success of the spill response. Recommendations include conducting additional Incident Command System (ICS) training, ensuring greater familiarity with exercise goals and roles in future exercises, and predetermining the where the command center should be established in the event of a real oil spill.
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May 1, 1999
This briefing examines bootcamp attrition, including predictions for FY99 rates, subsequent fleet attrition, and the role of recruit quality. We project an FY99 Navy bootcamp attrition rate of 20 percent, up 4 percent from FY98. We found holding down bootcamp attrition did not result in increased fleet attrition for these accession cohorts, as measured by 33-month attrition rates for accessions from FY90-FY95. Finally, we observed changes in recruit quality explain only a small part of attrition increase, as measured by high school diploma graduates, AFQT, and Delayed Entry Program (DEP).
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March 1, 1999
The Deputy of Chief of Naval Operations for Manpower and Personnel asked CNA to study various issues related to maintaining fleet readiness while expanding the role of women in the operating forces. First, we studied the pattern of losses of personnel from ships by gender and explored policies aimed at reducing them. Second, we updated a CNA planning model that links women's accession plans, bunk plans, and a variety of personnel policy parameters. Recommendations include maintaining a presence of female Chief Petty Officers of a least 5 percent of the female crew in order to reduce the level of unplanned losses of junior women, and increasing A-School proportion of female accessions in order to improve retention of female personnel.
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January 1, 1999
The Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, Manpower, and Personnel asked CNA to analyze ways to transform the size and shape of the enlisted force to better meet the Navy's future requirements at an affordable cost. In this research, we analyze how the Sea Tour Extension Program (STEP) could improve sea/shore balance in the Navy. We discuss who would be eligible and how many sailors would likely extend their sea tours in response to STEP. We also examine how much STEP would improve sea manning, the cost of the program, and how large of a bonus would be effective. We found that a STEP bonus of about $250 per month would eliminate manning differential in the undermanned ratings and improve sea/shore rotation in ratings targeted solely for sea/shore ratio reasons. Such a STEP would have a program cost of about $23 million.
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January 1, 1999
The DON is seeking to maximize the availability of child-care spaces within the available funding by adjusting the subsidies paid for different types of childcare. Military childcare is provided either in Child Development Centers (CDCs) or through the Family Child Care (FCC) program in private homes or bases. PDASN(M&RA) asked CNA to take a quick look at the subsidy program. The purpose of the study is to establish a baseline for FCC use and cost in the DON, with particular attention to initiatives to subsidize FCC. Recommendations include improving routine data collection and reporting, instituting regular parent and provider surveys, giving subsidies only to 0-3 year olds, and setting subsidies in line with local markets. In addition, we considered what an evaluation plan to monitor the effectiveness of FCC subsidies should include. Part of the report includes a suggestion for a follow-on study that would implement the evaluation plan. DTIC AD-B242825
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December 1, 1998

This paper looks at the history of the U.S. Navy forces and their involvement in smaller-scale contingency (SSC) operations, drawing from both earlier naval history, called its 'Deep Legacy', and the Cold War experience. The goal being to organize the history of naval involvement in SSC and, to a lesser extent, in operations other than war, to help identify the spectrum of policy options available to today's naval planners when they are thinking about SSC. It identifies patterns in how the Navy has reacted and adapted to its environments, including changing its procurement, organization, deployment and employment policies and structures. In addition to adapting to the environment, the paper examines the development of new technologies and the Navy's culture and attitudes driving decisions. DTIC AD-A360116

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August 1, 1998
The Personnel Readiness Division of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (J1) asked CNA to look into why people are leaving the services, particularly if there has been any change in the reasons personnel cite for leaving the services, and the quality of people who are leaving. The analyses presented here are based on the results form surveys for the Navy, Army, and Air Force. Across the services, we found evidence of increased dissatisfaction with different aspects of military compensation, including pay, advancement opportunities, and retirement benefits. But trends in retention through the first quarter of 1997 show no immediate alarms. Army trends seem to show long-term improvement, Navy data indicates that declines may be leveling off, and Air Force retention rates are erratic and reveal no real trends.
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August 1, 1998
This report is the product of a CNA self-initiated project to explore the evolution of the notions of military deterrence and influence in the new era after the Cold War. Deterrence during the Cold War was global, focused on the Soviet Union and on nuclear balances and threats; however, a new perspective on deterrence is needed in this new era. The report concludes that the task of military deterrence and influence in the post-Cold War period is to contribute to a stable world system so that the economic world can function and prosper. The role of military forces is to foster the stability in which economies can thrive. U.S. military forces do this by organizing and extending both bilateral relations with key countries and sustaining and extending broad collective security arrangements, and by walling off the few rogues that aspire to mount aggressions against their neighbors.
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