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Effect of the GT Composite Requirement on Qualification Rates
March 1, 1990
This paper analyzes whether recent changes in the definition of the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) have reduced the supply of eligible Marine Corps applicants, and whether composites other than General Technical (GT) can increase eligibility rates appreciably.
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The Role of Aptitude Factors in Predicting Hands-on Job Performance
March 1, 1990
It has been claimed that, except in clerical jobs, all the predictive power of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery arises from its measurement of general cognitive ability. This conclusion is based on analyses of training grades. The present paper shows that, when the criterion is hands-on performance, aptitude factors make statistically and practically significant additions to the variance explained by general cognitive ability.
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Predicting 21-Month Completion in the Marine Corps Using the Adaptability Screening Profile
March 1, 1990
An Adaptability Screening Profile has been developed for possible use in selecting applicants who are likely to complete their service obligations. Marine Corps data on completing 21 months are available on one part of the Profile. These data are analyzed to predict probability of 21-month completion from Profile score and educational tier.
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Concurrent Versus Enlistment ASVAB in Evaluation of New Tests
March 1, 1990
New kinds of tests are being evaluated as potential additions to the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB). They are compared on the basis of the criterion variance they explain when added to the ASVAB. The evaluation may use scores on the ASVAB given during enlistment processing, or a new ASVAB may be administered concurrently with the new tests. This paper compares these two research designs in terms of their effect on evaluation of new tests. The analysis uses Infantry data from the Marine Corps' Job Performance Measurement project, in which concurrent as well as enlistment ASVAB scores are available. While lower increments in explained variances are obtained when the ASVAB is concurrent, the difference between the administrations is small compared to variations across criterion variables and occupational areas.
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Some Issues in the ECAT and CAT-ASVAB Projects
February 1, 1990
The Department of Defense is developing a computerized adaptive-testing version of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB). This or some other version of the ASVAB may be enhanced by the addition of new, computerized subtests. A cost/benefit analysis has estimated a benefit of $450 million per year as the result of such enhancement. This paper questions the operational relevance of any such estimate. The paper describes ways in which the validation study of new tests needs to be expanded. It also discusses pros and cons of adaptive testing.
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Initial Effectiveness of the FY 1989 Medical Officer Retention Bonus
January 1, 1990
In response to the declining retention of military physicians, Congress enacted a Medical Officer Retention Bonus (MORB) for FY 1989. This research memorandum examines the effect the MORB is having on the retention of Navy physicians.
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Managing a Decline in Enlisted Endstrength
January 1, 1990
This research memorandum investigates whether enlisted endstrength cuts can be implemented to meet the following objectives: The personnel structure of the Navy after the strength cuts should be stable, advancement opportunity should change as little as possible, and endstrength cuts should be taken without having to extend involuntary separations beyond current policy. The analysis shows that these goals can be met by phasing cuts over a number of years if the percentage of petty officers in the inventory is simultaneously increased by a small amount.
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Analysis of the Size of the Joint Duty Assignment List
January 1, 1990
Title IV of the Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 (also known as the Goldwater-Nichols Act) requires officers to serve in a billet on the Joint Duty Assignment List (JDAL) before being promoted to flag rank. This research memorandum examines whether this requirement can be executed for all naval officers promoted to flag. The size of the JDAL and average tour length are used to calculate the average number of officers per cohort who can be expected to achieve this requirement in each officer community. Various modifications in the requirement are also explored to determine their effect on the percentage of officers likely to achieve the requirement.
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Computing Mean Responses in Nonlinear Models
December 1, 1989
It is common in empirical studies using nonlinear models to estimate the mean response by evaluating the nonlinear response function at the mean value of its argument(s). However, this procedure conceptually is flawed if the response function has significant curvature in the neighborhood of the mean. Ideally, one should evaluate the estimated response function for each of the estimated responses. In general, there will be some nonzero approximation error if one instead simply evaluates the response function at the mean of the independent variable(s). Furthermore, if the variability is significant in the independent variable(s) of interest, the approximation error of using the 'evaluate at the mean' procedure increases. This paper examines the magnitude of the approximation error, and attempts to identify situations in which somewhat more computationally intensive procedures should be used.
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Soviet Military Strategy Towards 2010
November 1, 1989
This paper tries to identify significant current trends that may continue into the 21st century and shape Soviet military strategy. An arms control trend, stemming from the Soviet concept of 'reasonable sufficiency,' seems slated to handicap the USSR severely in options for fighting and winning large-scale conventional and theater-nuclear wars. Moscow evidently feels the strategic nuclear sphere will be the key arena of military competition in the future. The USSR now shows a greater commitment to offensive counterforce than was true of the period before 'reasonable sufficiency.' Moscow's interest in the strategic nuclear sphere will be reinforced in the future by a long-term trend toward space warfare. However, it may be possible to soften the competition in this sphere through arms control. Prominent Soviets have already begun to suggest that, if the U.S. will limit its Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) ambitions to a 'thin' defense, Moscow might actually prefer mutual comprehensive Antiballistic Missile (ABM) deployments to continued adherence to the 1972 ABM Treaty.
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