April 1, 1989
This research memorandum describes an analysis of methods that will enable OP-01 to monitor more closely the execution of the Military Personnel Navy (MPN) appropriation. In particular, the analysis is concerned with the identification of leading indicators of MPN obligations that provide accurate forecasts of fiscal year obligations within a few months of the fiscal year's start. The study demonstrates that succinct and accurate estimation techniques may be applied to basic pay, retired pay accrual, basic allowance for quarters, FICA, and officer basic allowance for subsistence. Other pay categories exhibit too much irregularity to be amenable to such forecasting methods. The analysis exhibits the margins of error that apply to the forecasts and are inherent in the Navy's information systems.
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