Research for Type A

This research memorandum reviews methods for quantifying the trade-offs between using proxy (i.e., surrogate) measures of job performance versus the established benchmark criterion of hands-on performance tests. Such analytical methods must be sensitive to the intended application of the proxy. Two applications that require precise performance information are examined for equivalence of outcomes when proxies are used as opposed to hands-on tests.

This paper, undertaken as part of CNA's Quo Vadis II project, examines alternative statistical models for the cumulative distribution of cost and time of Navy Research and Development (R&D) projects.

This paper investigates the dynamic nature of the Navy's Research and Development (R&D) budget by examining the Navy's budget in the aggregate and by functional activity (i.e., manpower, operation and maintenance, procurement, and research and development). Qualitative conclusions about trends in each functional area are made using constant-dollar plots for the period 1955-88. The percentage of the aggregate Department of the Navy (DON) budget that is allotted to R&D has been remarkably consistent at 10 percent over the last 30 years. A forecast for the R&D budget percentage is made for the next 5 years using statistical techniques. Thus, independent forecasts of the aggregate DON budget can be used to generate alternative R&D budget forecasts.

Composites of test scores are used in the selection and classification of enlisted personnel. If a selection composite is replaced by a new composite with higher predictive validity, mean performance of the recruits increases. Formulas for calculating the performance gain require simplifying assumptions. Using an example, this research memorandum shows that the formulas are very sensitive to violations of these assumptions and hence are not dependable enough for use in operational decisions.