Research for Tier

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Final Analysis of Evaluation of Homeschool and ChalleNGe Program Recruits
July 1, 2004
The Conference Report of the National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 1999 directed the establishment of a 5-year pilot program requiring the military Services to treat graduates of homeschools, and graduates of the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe program who possess a GED, as Tier 1 for enlistment eligibility purposes. This study evaluates how these recruits compare with other recruits. Because of the substantial cost of replacing recruits who do not fulfill their enlistment obligation, attrition rates serve as our primary outcome measure; however, we also examine other measures including initial aptitude, initial paygrade, type of discharge, presence of waivers, and reason for separation. We find that both homeschooled and ChalleNGe GED recruits have much higher attrition rates than traditional high school graduates. Our findings on other measures match up with our attrition findings; homeschooled and ChalleNGe GED recruits are not strong recruits by these measures either.
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Predictors of Attrition: Attitudes, Behaviors, and Educational Characteristics
July 1, 2004
This paper explores the influence of education credentials, attitudes, and behaviors on first-term attrition. As in the past, education credentials remain strong predictors of attrition. However, we also find that measures of attitudes and past behaviors not included in recruits’ official records are strongly related to the likelihood of attrition. Examples include smoking behavior and attitude towards completing high school. We also find that enlistees with certificates of completion or attendance have substantially lower attrition than others holding alternate credentials. Finally, some characteristics (such as age) have differential effects on traditional high school diploma graduates versus those with alternate credentials. Our results suggest that, although education credential remains a consistent predictor of attrition, other factors are also extremely important. This provides the Services with the opportunity to lower overall attrition rates by screening for recruits with strong noncognitive factors.
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Pre-Service Smoking and First-Year Attrition
March 1, 2003
This briefing examines the relationship between pre-Service smoking behavior and first-year attrition. We report four main findings: 1) Recruits who reported that they smoked before enlisting had significantly higher RTC- and 12-month attrition rates than those who did not. 2) Attrition differences between pre-Service smokers and nonsmokers did not disappear after boot camp, which indicates that the RTC ban on smoking was not the primary factor contributing to higher attrition rates for recruits who smoked before enlisting. 3) Attrition differences by pre-Service smoking behavior were comparable to or greater than differences in attrition by tier category and by waiver status. 4) There was no interaction effect between educational tier group and pre-Service smoking. However, higher pre-Service smoking rates for Tier II/III recruits increased their average attrition relative to Tier I recruits. Based on these findings we recommended that the following questions might be addressed in future research: What is the true link between attrition and pre- and post-enlistment smoking behavior? Do attrition differences by pre-Service smoking behavior vary by season? Why is the smoking rate for the Navy sample twice that of the national average?
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