Research for Threat

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Soviet Military Strategy Towards 2010
November 1, 1989
This paper tries to identify significant current trends that may continue into the 21st century and shape Soviet military strategy. An arms control trend, stemming from the Soviet concept of 'reasonable sufficiency,' seems slated to handicap the USSR severely in options for fighting and winning large-scale conventional and theater-nuclear wars. Moscow evidently feels the strategic nuclear sphere will be the key arena of military competition in the future. The USSR now shows a greater commitment to offensive counterforce than was true of the period before 'reasonable sufficiency.' Moscow's interest in the strategic nuclear sphere will be reinforced in the future by a long-term trend toward space warfare. However, it may be possible to soften the competition in this sphere through arms control. Prominent Soviets have already begun to suggest that, if the U.S. will limit its Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) ambitions to a 'thin' defense, Moscow might actually prefer mutual comprehensive Antiballistic Missile (ABM) deployments to continued adherence to the 1972 ABM Treaty.
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Strategic ASW and the Conventional Defense of Europe
April 1, 1987
The leadership of the U.S. Navy has recommended that the United States seriously consider the option of attacking Soviet ballistic missile submarines during the conventional phase of a major war. While the vocal debate rages on in the United States, the allies of the U.S. in Europe and elsewhere have been publically silent. This paper addresses some of the questions which might be at the center of the debate. Its purpose is not to seek conclusive answers, but to clarify--for example to point out that the U.S. has no interest in attacking Soviet missile-carrying submarines except on behalf of the security and integrity of the Alliance.
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Dragon at Sea: China's Navy in Strategy and Diplomacy
December 1, 1985
The prospects for Sino-U.S. naval relations from a strategic perspective are examined. The status of China's navy as a fighting force and efforts to modernize that force are reviewed. The paper also looks at China's navy in regional security issues affecting Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the Indian Ocean. Finally, in discussing Sino-U.S. naval relations specifically, the paper concludes that some cooperation between the U.S. and Chinese navies seems to be in the interest of 'peace and stability' in the Pacific. Whether the U.S. and China can surmount their differences to achieve some limited military (including naval) relationship remains an open question.
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