Research for Threat

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Recent Trends and Thinking about Warfare
September 1, 2006
In late 2005 the Wargaming Department of the Naval War College asked CNA to help it develop a new approach to wargaming, one that provides structured and disciplined techniques for accommodating “Fourth-Generation Warfare” (4GW) and related new operational concepts.Even before the end of the Cold War there were claims that the established ways of making war were becoming obsolete. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, these claims have become more widespread,influenced by the rush of events, the rise of new threats, and technological developments. The proponents of the 4GW concept have raised important issues that are complicating the debate as to what is the best way to prepare to defend ourselves. The purpose of this paper is to explore some of these ideas.
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The U.S. Navy Role in Continental Defense: Overview
June 1, 1998

As part of CNA's self-initiated project to examine potential issues associated with the upcoming defense review, the Director, Plans, Policy and Operations suggested we examine direct threats to the continental United States and what the contribution of naval forces would be in the defense. The report concentrates on three possible missions or threats: sea control, national missile defense, and non-traditional missions such as cross-border flows. The effects, likelihood, source, difficulty and Navy response are discussed for each mission.

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Naval Cooperation after Korean Unification
May 1, 1996
The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) held a workshop in Washington, DC, from December 4 to 6, 1995, to examine the prospects for U.S. - Korean naval relations in the year 2010. For purposes of analysis, the participants assumed the possibility of Korean unification over the next ten to 15 years. The purpose of the workshop was to investigate potential threats in the region in 2010, identify the naval missions these threats imply, identify non-threat-related missions, and project the capabilities required to perform those missions.
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National Security Strategy and Forward Presence: Implications for Acquisition and Use of Forces
March 1, 1994
The post-Cold War national security strategy engages U.S. power in all its form to shape a more secure world. Overseas presence--operating forces forward to influence what foreign governments think and do--is the most important and challenging of the tasks this strategy assigns the Armed Forces. This paper looks at the political and strategic case for presence and discusses some of its costs and risks. It draws conclusions about: (1) what presence means in our use of the forces we have now; and (2) what forces to buy for the future. It also suggests ways to make presence operations more efficient and issues deserving study in that regard.
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Peacetime Influence Through Forward Naval Presence
October 1, 1993
The Navy, like any military organization, exists to employ force in the service of national policy--in short, to wage war. Peacetime operations have influence precisely because they carry with them a constant reminder of the ability of the Navy and the nation to use force to compel or protect. The Navy must not neglect its warfighting heritage. But the demands of the post-Cold War world require greater attention to the use of the Navy to influence other nations in conditions short of war or crisis. As we enter the twenty-first century, the Navy must accept new responsibilities to keep our friends friendly, to keep our adversaries deterred and quiescent, to draw uncommitted states closer to the United States, and to either restore stability to unstable regimes or mitigate the consequences of instability. Despite its reputation as a conservative organization, one of the great strengths of the Navy is its ability to adapt. It adapted to the dominance of the carrier in 1942. It adapted to the needs of inshore warfare in Vietnam. It adapted to the challenge of a seagoing Soviet superpower in the final decades of the Cold War. Now it must adapt to the need to use the tools of war to gain peacetime influence in an uncertain age.
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The Post-Cold War World: Charting a Safe Course
May 1, 1992
The Unite States is entering a momentous period in its history. The Cold War is over. The threat of world war III has dissipated along with the USSR and its communist part. The post-Cold War world is taking shape, with profound changes affecting both international and domestic politics. First, there appears to be a profound shift from geopolitics and military threat to geoeconomics as the basis for this new order. Second, the rebuilding of economic and social structures at home has assumed greater importance as a legitimate national security imperative. Given the strength, resilience, and leadership of the United States, it would appear that the end of the Cold War should redound to America s distinct advantage. The Center for Naval Analyses is using this year's annual conference as a forum to debate how these changes will affect America's national security policy and its maritime component in the post-Cold War world.
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A Brave New Curriculum for a Brave New World?
March 1, 1991
This paper examines the curriculum of the Naval War College, focusing on adapting the current three-course program to provide a more appropriate education for the officers looking to meet the nation's needs through the tumultuous decade ahead.
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Hedging Against the Unthinkable: U.S. Military Responses to Third World Nuclear Crises
July 1, 1990
Presents briefing slides and accompanying text on the changing nuclear threat and the assumptions and methodology used for a scenario analysis. Conditions under which U.S. leaders would seriously consider use of military force to deal with Third World nuclear crises and military options of the U.S. are considered. Annexes include threat methodology and a description of scenarios.
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Weapons Proliferation and U.S. National Security
July 1, 1990
Most examinations of proliferation issues concern controlling the spread of weaponry; this report goes further to delve into the potential military responses to proliferation. The objectives of this report are to raise awareness of this evolving problem, examine trends in proliferation to give a broad overview of this issue, frame the issues in a manner conducive to thoughtful analysis, consider scenarios for involvement by the U.S., and suggest several possible U.S. responses.
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