Research for Synthetic Cohorts

In past years, the Navy produced a periodic report containing officer continuation rates for officers with 6 to 11 years of commissioned service (YCS). That report has not been well maintained. In particular, the continuation rate calculations for aviators have been neglected. As reliance on the report diminished, each officer community manager (OCM) developed different continuation rates that were not comparable across communities. At present, when the Deputy Chief of Naval Personnel for Manpower, Personnel, Training, and Education (N1) asks for officer continuation rates, there are no standard definitions or calculation methods across officer communities. N104 and BUPERS-3 asked CNA to develop a semiannual officer retention report that would standardize continuation rate reporting across the communities. This is the first report; it covers the unrestricted line only. Using officer personnel database extracts, we standardized the definitions for the beginning and ending fiscal year officer inventories. We also standardized the calculation method for the continuation rates. We asked each OCM to review our work. Ultimately, our sponsors would like to adopt our definitions and computing methods and have a data analysis group in the Navy, most likely the Navy Manpower and Budget System (NMPBS), take over the preparation of the report.