Research for Surface Combatants

The rapid decline of the defense budget since the fall of the Soviet Union has led to severely reduced procurement accounts for all the Military Services, and these declining budgets are likely to continue well into the next decade. For the Department of the Navy, with its many competing procurement demands, the declining budgets mean that (a) future shipbuilding must be scaled back, and (b) the question of quantity versus capability will become the paramount question as the Navy develops requirements for all new ships. In this paper, which was prepared prior to the start of the Cost and Operational Analysis of the next-generation surface combatant (SC21), I propose that one alternative that should be considered for the SC21 requirement is a set of two ships: a fully capable ship and a moderately capable ship, with the moderately capable design potentially having Coast Guard and foreign military sales application. For maximum standardization and affordability, the two ship types should be designed concurrently by one design team and introduced into the fleet at the same time in a mix consistent with fleet sizing requirements. To meet expected budgetary constraints, both ship types should be developed with firm design-to-cost constraints.

This research memorandum reviews and extends research from recent studies on the relationship between enlisted crew turnover and surface ship readiness. The effect of turnover on readiness is compared to that of other resources. Recent trends in the turnover rate are analyzed and potential policies to reduce the impact on readiness are assessed.

This research memorandum analyzes the probability that surface combatants, specifically frigates and destroyers, begin deployment fully combat ready in training. Full combat readiness in training is defined as C1 status in the Status of Reference and Training System (SORTS). The analysis examines the relationships between deploying C1 in training and various measures of the ship's operating tempo before deployment, enlisted crew turnover, and the material condition of the ship in the months before deployment.

The productivity of enlisted personnel aboard ships is estimated as a function of their personal characteristics. Ship readiness is measured by the material condition of shipboard equipment. Up to now, little has been known about the relative value of different kinds of personnel. The goal of this study is to improve on the assumptions underlying Navy personnel policies. Casualty reports from 91 cruisers, frigates, and destroyers are used to study how the productivity of enlisted personnel varies systematically with high school graduation, entry test scores, paygrade, experience, Navy training, race and marital status. Six occupations and three subsystems are examined separately. Equipment complexity, ship age, and overhaul frequency are accounted for. Implications are drawn for Navy policies regarding recruitment, retention, manning, rotation, and pay.