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Performing Industrial Base Analyses Volume I: Methodology
August 1, 1995
In November 1994, the Secretary of the Navy asked the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and Acquisition) [ASN(RD&A)] to assess the minimum essential industrial base that the Department must sustain. The assessment was to become part of the FY97 Program Review (PR-97). In turn, ASN(RD&A) asked CNA to help support the assessment process. In addition to PR-97 support, the sponsor asked CNA to develop a framework for addressing industrial base questions because the Navy Department is required to perform many of these industrial base assessments. This paper proposes a CNA methodology for conducting industrial base studies. It is designed as an instructional document to guide analysts in capturing economic sources of industrial base risks. This framework helps to identify likely problems and then to tailor feasible solutions. The framework is general enough to be applied to a wide variety of industrial base items. The goal of this paper is to separate the important factors regarding the industrial base from the extraneous ones. By highlighting the key elements and economic dynamics, the methodology can support Navy and Marine Corps decisions on critical industrial base issues.
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U.S. Price Controls on Energy and the International Petrochemical Market
October 1, 1983
Analyzes the effects of price control programs to determine if they subsidized U.S. petrochemical exports, and if so, what were the effects on world petrochemical prices and U.S. and foreign production levels.
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THE ADJUSTMENT OF EMPLOYMENT TO TECHNICAL CHANGE IN THE STEEL AND AUTO INDUSTRIES
May 1, 1983
This paper presents estimates of what effect technical changes had on labor demands from 1958-1977 in the steel and auto industries.
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THE PRICE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN DOMESTIC AND IMPORTED STEEL
May 1, 1983
This report examines two specific reasons why domestic steel retains most of the market, even though imports usually cost less.
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Long-Range Military Implications of Petroleum Availability for Navy Planning Study
November 1, 1981
This study evaluates petroleum issues facing the Navy over the next 20 years. It analyzes the threat of reduced availability of petroleum and the probable effects on Naval warfare, on the selection of weapons, and on mobility. There are four areas of investigation: the current oil market, production forecasts, the prospect of import interruptions, and Navy options. The study addresses the changes in the oil market since the embargo of 1973. It explains how those changes in the market have affected Navy budgets and eroded steaming and flying hours. Published forecasts of lowered production of petroleum and the threat of interruptions of imports are evaluated for their potential to disrupt world markets out to the year 2000. Several aspects of future petroleum supplies are quantified. The study concludes by recommending measures the Navy can take to deal with the problems of reduced fuel availability and quality.
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Discounting and Fiscal Constraints: Why Discounting is Always Right
October 1, 1979
This paper argues against Rolf Clark and his conclusion that under the institutional arrangements of the times, defense managers should not discount.
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THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AN INTERRUPTION IN UNITED STATES PETROLEUM IMPORTS, 1975 THRU 2000
December 1, 1978
This paper estimates U.S. dependence on foreign oil for the period 1975 through 2000 and examines the economic effect on the U.S. of an interruption of this oil.
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A FORECAST OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND AND AIRPORT AND AIRWAY USE IN 1980
June 1, 1974
The demand for air travel between 581 pairs of domestic cities, which comprise 60 percent of total U.S. domestic air travel, is analyzed and forecast to the year 1980. An asessment of operating economies of new wide-body-aircraft and alternative trip times likely to be experienced by future air travelers is made to generate assumptions regarding the structure of future fares and trip times by distance. These assumptions are combined with income and population projections for each city and an estimated demand function to forecast levels of passenger travel between each pair of cities. Airline flights between these pairs of cities are projected under two patterns of service that may evolve with the further introduction of wide-body jets into commercial service. This research contribution is one of several documents produced in support of Project Blue Air: An Analysis of Navy Airspace Usage.
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