Research for Studies

Recruiting, training, and reenlistment bonus costs are calculated for recruits with 4-year enlistments in 28 rating groups. A computer simulation model is developed to minimize these costs while meeting manpower requirements.

This study evaluates petroleum issues facing the Navy over the next 20 years. It analyzes the threat of reduced availability of petroleum and the probable effects on Naval warfare, on the selection of weapons, and on mobility. There are four areas of investigation: the current oil market, production forecasts, the prospect of import interruptions, and Navy options. The study addresses the changes in the oil market since the embargo of 1973. It explains how those changes in the market have affected Navy budgets and eroded steaming and flying hours. Published forecasts of lowered production of petroleum and the threat of interruptions of imports are evaluated for their potential to disrupt world markets out to the year 2000. Several aspects of future petroleum supplies are quantified. The study concludes by recommending measures the Navy can take to deal with the problems of reduced fuel availability and quality.

The productivity of enlisted personnel aboard ships is estimated as a function of their personal characteristics. Ship readiness is measured by the material condition of shipboard equipment. Up to now, little has been known about the relative value of different kinds of personnel. The goal of this study is to improve on the assumptions underlying Navy personnel policies. Casualty reports from 91 cruisers, frigates, and destroyers are used to study how the productivity of enlisted personnel varies systematically with high school graduation, entry test scores, paygrade, experience, Navy training, race and marital status. Six occupations and three subsystems are examined separately. Equipment complexity, ship age, and overhaul frequency are accounted for. Implications are drawn for Navy policies regarding recruitment, retention, manning, rotation, and pay.

Success Chances of REcruits Entering the Navy (SCREEN) are validated and extended from the first through the second year of service. Selection rates and predicted one- and two-year loss rates at different SCREEN cutting scores are calculated for recruitment planning. Inconsistencies in AFQT mental group measurement and irregularities in AFQT test administration since 1973 are pointed out. A conversion of AFQT scores derived from the current Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to the mental groups used in SCREEN is provided, along with revised SCREEN chances for ASVAB mental groups.