Research for Strategy

This report is the product of a CNA self-initiated project to explore the evolution of the notions of military deterrence and influence in the new era after the Cold War. Deterrence during the Cold War was global, focused on the Soviet Union and on nuclear balances and threats; however, a new perspective on deterrence is needed in this new era. The report concludes that the task of military deterrence and influence in the post-Cold War period is to contribute to a stable world system so that the economic world can function and prosper. The role of military forces is to foster the stability in which economies can thrive. U.S. military forces do this by organizing and extending both bilateral relations with key countries and sustaining and extending broad collective security arrangements, and by walling off the few rogues that aspire to mount aggressions against their neighbors.

Gaming is a tool that the military has used with great success to gain insights into the feasibility of alternative strategies or tactics before actually putting one into practice. Although gaming does not provide real answers, it can provide insights into strategic 'what if' questions. The validity of the insights gained is largely a function of the reality designed into the game and the willingness of the players to immerse themselves in the play. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) asked CNA to design a game based on a business sector undergoing change in response to the defense drawdown. The shipbuilding industry was chosen because (1) it is a critical business sector for U.S. economic and military security, (2) it is facing major near-term strategic and tactical decisions that will define its future, and (3) it could be gamed with a high degree of realism. The purpose of the game was to bring together important leaders from government and industry to exchange information and gain insights. Specifically, we wanted to help industry and government leaders answer the following questions: (a) How can the U.S. shipbuilding industry compete in the global market? and (b) What technologies enhance or promote U.S. competitiveness in this market? The game was designed with these objectives in mind. This research memorandum describes the game design and the game play, and provides a summary of the panel discussions, the shipyard play, and the lessons learned.

As our nation's military continues to draw down and reshape itself, two important resources can be strategically reinvested to strengthen youth: 1) military personnel either serving or transitioning out, and 2) military facilities. The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) has examined these ideas within its Veterans Transition and Defense Conversion Project. This briefing summarizes Phase II of the project. It builds on Phase I and presents CNA's analysis of the concept 'Strategic Reinvestment to Strengthen Youth.' The goal of the study is to fine strategic opportunities to strengthen youth by selectively reinvesting military resources. CNA was eager to investigate this issue for several reasons. It saw a genuine opportunity to help shape some of the definitions of national security emerging from the ongoing debate on defense policy for the post-Cold War era. This shifting of the discourse to now include domestic aspects of national security coincides with a substantial and long-term military reduction. Therefore, a major policy objective entails tailoring that draw down's social impact to address some of the newly emerging domestic security.

This paper examines the curriculum of the Naval War College, focusing on adapting the current three-course program to provide a more appropriate education for the officers looking to meet the nation's needs through the tumultuous decade ahead.