Research for Statistics

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May 1, 2006
Statistical methods can be used to assess the risk posed by naval minefields to ships that are transiting or loitering in mined waterspace. However, there are psychological impediments to the effective use of this information, which can result in sub-optimal decision-making regarding whether or how to navigate in mined waters. This paper characterizes how specific heuristics (mental shortcuts used in addressing a situation) can affect decision-making, and offers palliatives that can improve the robustness of decision-making in a potentially mined environment.
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February 1, 2005

In order to investigate which duty stations and ratings are at a high risk for hearing loss, this study looked at the Defense Occupational and Environmental Health Readiness System (DOEHRS) medical hearing test records of nearly 251,000 enlisted sailors and officers over the twenty-five year period 1979 to 2004. The study found that enlisted sailors who spend most of a 24 year Navy career assigned to a Naval Surface Warship1 as opposed to being assigned to ashore duty stations or a Naval Support ship, had a much higher probability of leaving the Service with a reduction in their ability to hear. Since many individuals lose some hearing as they age, the study controlled for aging along with other factors such as gender and race to properly test if there are differences associated with ship assignments. To accomplish this task, we merged Navy medical records of hearing tests with information on each individual sailor's duty stations.

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December 1, 1993
Some activities performed by government employees are similar to those performed in the private sector. Government policy -- outlined in Office of Management Budget circular A-76 -- is to allow private sector companies to compete with government organizations for this work. The goal is to use competition to encourage efficiency -- whether the function is contracted out or not. The Navy's Commercial Activities (CA) program is responsible for implementing this competition program within the Navy. Over the last decade, the Navy has studied about 1,000 activities -- covering about 29,000 billets (both civilian and military). Due to changes in legislation, the Navy is not doing any CA studies at this time. In this research memorandum, we examine: (a) the savings achieved as a result of CA studies; (b) whether the initial savings diminished over time; and (c) the prospect for future studies. Full documentation of this work appears in CRM 92-226.10, 'Analysis of the Navy's Commercial Activities Program.'
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July 1, 1993
Some activities performed by government employees are similar to those performed in the private sector. Government policy -- outlined in Office of Management Budget circular A-76 -- is to allow private sector companies to compete with government organizations for this work. The goal is to use competition to encourage efficiency -- whether the function is contracted out or not. The Navy's Commercial Activities (CA) program is responsible for implementing this competition program within the Navy. Over the last decade, the Navy has studied about 1,000 activities -- covering about 29,000 billets (both civilian and military). Due to changes in legislation, the Navy is not doing any CA studies at this time. In this research memorandum, we examine: (a) the savings achieved as a result of CA studies; (b) whether the initial savings diminished over time; and (c) the prospect for future studies.
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June 1, 1990
This research memorandum examines first-term attrition for female recruits accessed in the FY 1983 through FY 1985 period. Female first-term attrition probabilities are modeled as a function of background characteristics at entry into the Navy.
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October 1, 1988
Reported tail probabilities of test statistics are based on the assumption that the method is applied to all samples from the population. This assumption is incorrect when data analysts test the underlying assumption, e.g., symmetry, and refrain from using the method if the assumption is rejected. Hence the standard tables are invalid. This is illustrated by generating samples from a Cauchy distribution.
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August 1, 1987
The Marine Corps provides Professional Military Education (PME) for its noncommissioned officers. Each level of training is designed to provide the leadership skills necessary for advancement in rank. This research memorandum shows that prior performance, time in grade, length to end of active service, and operational commitments affect the selection of eligible Marines into some of the resident courses.
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April 1, 1986
Data is presented showing that results on high school ASVAB speeded subtests are inconsistent with results on nonspeeded subtests. Causes for the inconsistencies are explored, and corrective actions based on these findings are recommended.
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January 1, 1986
This research memorandum reports on the construction of an individual-level data set for Navy enlistment contracts for FY83 and FY84. It discusses the problems associated with these data and formalizes a contract attrition model, which is then estimated in a logistic framework.
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