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Soviet Military Strategy Towards 2010
November 1, 1989
This paper tries to identify significant current trends that may continue into the 21st century and shape Soviet military strategy. An arms control trend, stemming from the Soviet concept of 'reasonable sufficiency,' seems slated to handicap the USSR severely in options for fighting and winning large-scale conventional and theater-nuclear wars. Moscow evidently feels the strategic nuclear sphere will be the key arena of military competition in the future. The USSR now shows a greater commitment to offensive counterforce than was true of the period before 'reasonable sufficiency.' Moscow's interest in the strategic nuclear sphere will be reinforced in the future by a long-term trend toward space warfare. However, it may be possible to soften the competition in this sphere through arms control. Prominent Soviets have already begun to suggest that, if the U.S. will limit its Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) ambitions to a 'thin' defense, Moscow might actually prefer mutual comprehensive Antiballistic Missile (ABM) deployments to continued adherence to the 1972 ABM Treaty.
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The USSR and the Pacific Century
July 1, 1989
Recent Soviet press statements reflect a growing conviction that the emerging 'Pacific Century' has important implications for the USSR. While seemingly downgrading the military component of Soviet Far East presence, Soviet leaders are contemplating various unprecedented measures. Among them are the creation of 'free economic zones' and the opening of several ports, including Vladivostok. This research memorandum assesses the status of these developments, discusses some of their implications, and examines the possible nature of economic activity in the zones and potential sites for them. Also briefly noted are new trends in Soviet economic thinking.
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Soviet Discussion of a Cadre-Militia System
July 1, 1989
Soviet military and political leaders are currently engaged in a debate about instituting a cadre-militia system. Such a system would consist of a significantly smaller regular army, manned either by conscripts or volunteers, and a territorial militia based on universal service. Influential military men appear to be divided on how to respond to the prospect of reorganization. Depending upon its ultimate form, the change to a cadre-militia system could severely restrict the Soviet Union's ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations. The discussion will probably continue for some time to come, and its resolution promises to have far-reaching consequences for the security policy of the United States and its allies.
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Trends in Force Levels and Disposition of Major Navies Since World War II
June 1, 1989
This report describes the force structures and dispositions of major navies since World War II. Included are computer-generated 40-year order-of-battle tables for NATO and ANZUS countries, Japan, and the Soviet Union. Geographic charts are also provided that show fleet dispositions in five-year snapshots and during specified crises. Line graphs illustrate trends in both force structures and dispositions over time. These products draw on a 700,000-entry data base created by a joint Naval Intelligence-CNA research effort. The data base will be updated as of July 1 of every year with current information and whenever pertinent crises warrant inclusion.
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Downgrading the Military in Soviet Foreign Policy
April 1, 1989
A series of recent events indicates that the correlation of domestic forces has been turning against the Soviet military. This has been reflected in an unprecedented, wide-scale press assault on the Soviet military. Linked with the criticism are signs that the economic aspects of national security are being pushed to the forefront.
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Analyzing Soviet Intentions: A Short Guide to Soviet Military Literature
March 1, 1989
This research contribution lays out a methodology for interpreting the Soviet literature dealing with military affairs. The following aspects are covered: the subject matter that normally yields the best evidence of Soviet intentions; the theoretical disciplines involved with this subject matter and their relationship to official channels; the problem of determining the truthfulness and authoritativeness of Soviet statements; and the rules of analysis in coping with their literature.
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Military Herald Indices (1975-1979), Volume I
November 1, 1988
This group of indices lists all articles published in the Soviet military journal Voyenny vestnik (or Military Herald) from 1975 through 1979. The indices have been compiled from available FSTC translations of the article titles. If they were not available, the titles were translated by the staff at the Center for Naval Analyses. Volume I contains two sections. Section 1 lists the articles in chronological order. In Section 2, the articles have been arranged alphabetically by author. Volume II is a title index that lists the titles alphabetically by each key word in the title. These indices will be useful, for example, to researchers desiring to obtain all articles written on a specific subject regardless of author, articles by a particular author, or articles appearing in certain issues of Voyenny vestnik.
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Military Herald Indices (1975-1979), Volume II
November 1, 1988
This group of indices lists all articles published in the Soviet military journal Voyenny vestnik (or Military Herald) from 1975 through 1979. The indices have been compiled from available FSTC translations of the article titles. If they were not available, the titles were translated by the staff at the Center for Naval Analyses. Volume I contains two sections. Section 1 lists the articles in chronological order. In Section 2, the articles have been arranged alphabetically by author. Volume II is a title index that lists the titles alphabetically by each key word in the title. These indices will be useful, for example, to researchers desiring to obtain all articles written on a specific subject regardless of author, articles by a particular author, or articles appearing in certain issues of Voyenny vestnik.
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Analysts in War and Peace: MccGwire, McConnell, and Admiral Gorshkov
September 1, 1987
This essay attempts to clarify conflicting interpretations of Soviet naval policy in the works of two leading Western analysts. The material in question is Soviet military literature, and the focus is on Admiral Sergei G. Gorshkov.
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