Research for Southeastern Asia

The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum focuses on the most probable trends relating to Southeast Asia and Australia during this period. It discusses a few countries and issues at somewhat disproportionate length where circumstances appeared to warrant it - Vietnam because of its long isolation, Australia because of its long alliance relationship with the United States, and South China Sea territorial claims because of the complexity of the issues.

This document consists of a collection of papers generated by the work in progress of our study, 'Value of Maritime Trade in Southeast Asia.' This project for N51 examines the economic value of maritime trade through the Southeast Asian straits, given the USN mission to ensure passage through these crucial waterways. The purpose of this document is to acquaint our colleagues with our efforts so they can participate in and contribute to our discussion and help improve the final result. This overview simply introduces the reader to the collection of working papers. First, we offer a few paragraphs on the motivation for our investigations, after which we give a brief summary of our approach. Second, we list the working documents of the appendixes, describing how they originated as the study progressed. Finally, we attach the collection of presentations, memos, and planning documents that currently make up the study's paper trail.

As the Cold War draws to an end, U.S. military presence in Asia is being called into question. Opponents of continued presence consider it a vestige of earlier times since there is presently no compelling threat to deter. Proponents of U.S. military presence argue that potential conflicts still exist, and that the U.S. must be forward-deployed to react to crisis in a timely manner. This paper analyzes U.S. presence in Southeast Asia.