Research for Shipbuilding

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July 1, 1995
The rapid decline of the defense budget since the fall of the Soviet Union has led to severely reduced procurement accounts for all the Military Services, and these declining budgets are likely to continue well into the next decade. For the Department of the Navy, with its many competing procurement demands, the declining budgets mean that (a) future shipbuilding must be scaled back, and (b) the question of quantity versus capability will become the paramount question as the Navy develops requirements for all new ships. In this paper, which was prepared prior to the start of the Cost and Operational Analysis of the next-generation surface combatant (SC21), I propose that one alternative that should be considered for the SC21 requirement is a set of two ships: a fully capable ship and a moderately capable ship, with the moderately capable design potentially having Coast Guard and foreign military sales application. For maximum standardization and affordability, the two ship types should be designed concurrently by one design team and introduced into the fleet at the same time in a mix consistent with fleet sizing requirements. To meet expected budgetary constraints, both ship types should be developed with firm design-to-cost constraints.
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June 1, 1994
Gaming is a tool that the military has used with great success to gain insights into the feasibility of alternative strategies or tactics before actually putting one into practice. Although gaming does not provide real answers, it can provide insights into strategic 'what if' questions. The validity of the insights gained is largely a function of the reality designed into the game and the willingness of the players to immerse themselves in the play. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) asked CNA to design a game based on a business sector undergoing change in response to the defense drawdown. The shipbuilding industry was chosen because (1) it is a critical business sector for U.S. economic and military security, (2) it is facing major near-term strategic and tactical decisions that will define its future, and (3) it could be gamed with a high degree of realism. The purpose of the game was to bring together important leaders from government and industry to exchange information and gain insights. Specifically, we wanted to help industry and government leaders answer the following questions: (a) How can the U.S. shipbuilding industry compete in the global market? and (b) What technologies enhance or promote U.S. competitiveness in this market? The game was designed with these objectives in mind. This research memorandum describes the game design and the game play, and provides a summary of the panel discussions, the shipyard play, and the lessons learned.
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April 1, 1994
In this report, we examine the question of where the Navy's depot maintenance should be done. In FY 1992, the Department of the Navy spent $7.5 billion on depot maintenance, and most of that work was done at naval depots. Now that the workload is declining, however, the Department of the Navy and the Department of Defense are looking at the possibility of doing more of that work at private facilities.
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May 1, 1983
This paper discusses CNA's need for conceptual cost and design models and where the models fit relative to the typical acquisition process.
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August 1, 1982
This paper examines the current force procurement plans of each of the Western European and NATO navies as of the end of 1981 and estimates their impact on future force structure.
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March 1, 1982
This paper tests the feasibility of a statistical method for fully pricing shipbuilding change manhours.
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October 1, 1981
This paper describes and analyzes the politico-military cooperation between Belgrade and Moscow after 1961, and the changing attitudes and policies of Yugoslavia toward the Soviet and U.S./NATO military presence.
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February 1, 1981
This paper proposes that commercial tankers be used for afloat replenishment of naval ships. It gives a brief history of merchant ships in a support role and technical characteristics for various container ships.
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May 1, 1980
This paper analyzes the effects on a ship's equipment of delaying an overhaul. Equipment condition is measured with data on CASREPTs for destroyer-type ships in 1970-1975; and regression analysis is used to measure the effects of delaying an overhaul.
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June 1, 1974
This paper measures changes in productivity and real labor costs in the shipbuilding industry. Several alternate measures are presented, all of which indicate that productivity rose during 1958-1966. It is argued that the increase in productivity was due to increased demand, particularly military demand, for ships and not due to the introduction of new technology. An appendix discusses the available price indexes for the shipbuilding industry.
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