Research for Selected Reserves

The goal of this study is to provide the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs (Manpower and Personnel) with empirical information on loss patterns in the Selected Reserves (SelRes) since September 11, 2001. Of particular interest is how activation affected the loss behavior of SelRes members. We created a longitudinal database that follows SelRes members from September 2001 to January 2005. The database consists of records from the Defense Manpower Data Center’s (DMDC) Reserve Component Common Personnel Data System (RCCPDS) merged with extracts from DMDC’s Contingency Tracking System. We use the database to compare the loss behavior of recently deactivated SelRes members with that of other SelRes members. For the enlisted force, we found that post-9/11 SelRes loss rates were higher than SelRes loss rates in FY 2000, a year with a low number of activations. Loss rates are higher for those who were activated but not deployed (remained in CONUS) compared with those who deployed (outside CONUS). For some components, loss rates increase with the length of activation. We also found that those with multiple activations had loss rates similar to those with one.

The Navy's pool of pretrained and obligated individuals (Individual Ready Reserve, Retirees, and Fleet Reserve) is an important component of the total manpower that would be available in wartime. This research memorandum reports the results of the Center for Naval Analyses' study of Pretrained Individual Manpower (PIM) personnel resources and the match between resources and official requirements. End-of-fiscal-year personnel inventories from 1982 to 1987 were tabulated by rating, paygrade, length of time since leaving active duty, and Navy Enlisted Classifications (NECs). Data on the geographical location of PIM personnel were used to assess Personnel Mobilization Team plans. How well the supply of PIM personnel matches currently defined demands was examined at overall and individual paygrade levels.

This analysis develops and estimates a model of retention during the first year of affiliation in the Selected Reserve. Estimates of the effects of pay and personal characteristics are provided for 11 Navy rating groups. The results should be useful for forecasting Selected Reserve manpower levels and for evaluating the effects of affiliation and retention bonuses.

Using a sample of Naval Reserve recruiters for its analysis, this research memorandum estimates the effects of recruiting-duty experience and other personal characteristics on recruiter productivity. A Poisson probability model and multinomial model are estimated. The results are intended for use in calculating the number of recruiters required to meet Selected Reserve recruiting goals.