Research for Security
January 1, 1996
This memorandum is the final report of a study sponsored by Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The primary issues were how the fleet's purposes and objectives will change between now and 2010, and what the now-identifiable trends imply for fleet operations, problems, and opportunities. In response, we identified the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010 and derived implications for U.S. forces, and in particular the Navy. For purposes of this study, the APR corresponds to the Seventh Fleet's area of operations - that is, roughly from Kamchatka to the Indian frontier with Pakistan. We analyzed the effects that these trends would have on the APR, projected effects of such trends on U.S. national interests and objectives, and attempted to derive the implications of identifiable national and transnational trends for defense policies and programs, including but not confined to the policies and programs of the naval services.
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December 1, 1995
The Commander, Seventh Fleet asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum assesses trends in those demographic, health, social, agricultural, and sustenance issues with the potential effects for security throughout the region. Data presented are for the most recent years or decades, and projections are for the 15-year period 1995-2010 unless otherwise specified.
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January 1, 1995
A workshop, The Japan-U.S. Alliance and Security Regimes in East Asia, was held in Tokyo, Japan, from 26 to 29 July 1994, under the cosponsorship of the Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS) in Tokyo and the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) in Alexandria, Virginia. Security specialists and academicians from Japan and the United States participated in the workshop, along with government observers from both nations. The objective was candid discussion regarding the continued viability of the Japan -- U.S. alliance in the post-Cold War era and the future role and impact of emerging East Asian multilateral security mechanisms and proposals. Participants examined issues affecting the future of the Japan -- U.S. bilateral security relationship in conjunction with the current trend toward multilateralism, its motivating and driving forces, and its implications for Japan, the United States, and East Asia in general.
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September 1, 1994
In response to a request from the Commander in Chief, U.S. Atlantic Fleet (CINCLANTFLT), the Center for Naval Analyses conducted a study of the mid- and long-range importance of Latin America in U.S. Navy strategic planning, especially that of and in relation to CINCLANTFLT. The study considered the full range of hemisphere navy-to-navy relations and examined the modalities and value of activities to both the U.S. Navy and to Latin American navies. It also examined future developments for Latin American navies in light of the changing international security environment and the roles that Latin American can play. This research memorandum is one of a series of documents prepared in response to CINCLANTFLT's request. It contains the detailed analytical data supporting the study's final report. It is an extensive catalog of U.S. Navy program and dealings with Latin America and Latin Americans. In-depth analyses and extensive interview data permitted us to evaluate the scope and impact of programs and to assess their contribution to national security goals. The Navy program are divided into the following categories: (1) Political-military interaction; (2) Facility access in Latin America; (3) Exercises and other operations; (4) Operational exchanges; (5) Professional military-education programs; (6) U.S. Marine Corps activities; (7) Interoperability; (8) Security assistance; (9) Research and development; and (10) Miscellaneous.
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May 1, 1992
The Unite States is entering a momentous period in its history. The Cold War is over. The threat of world war III has dissipated along with the USSR and its communist part. The post-Cold War world is taking shape, with profound changes affecting both international and domestic politics. First, there appears to be a profound shift from geopolitics and military threat to geoeconomics as the basis for this new order. Second, the rebuilding of economic and social structures at home has assumed greater importance as a legitimate national security imperative. Given the strength, resilience, and leadership of the United States, it would appear that the end of the Cold War should redound to America s distinct advantage. The Center for Naval Analyses is using this year's annual conference as a forum to debate how these changes will affect America's national security policy and its maritime component in the post-Cold War world.
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March 1, 1991
This paper examines the curriculum of the Naval War College, focusing on adapting the current three-course program to provide a more appropriate education for the officers looking to meet the nation's needs through the tumultuous decade ahead.
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May 1, 1984
Before government agencies can release confidential microdata with identification removed, they must be certain that the data cannot be linked to specific individuals or businesses. This paper looks at five ways of masking microdata: adding random error, multiplying by random error, grouping, random rounding, and data swapping. The five strategies were used to mask tax data on individual businesses. Each strategy was then evaluated on the basis of how well it protected confidentiality and maintained the value of the data for economic analysis.
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March 1, 1977
This paper traces out patterns in public and elite attitudes on security issues in three allied nations and shows what implications these patterns have for American defense policy.
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July 1, 1974
What should the United States do if some oil imports are cheaper but less secure than domestic energy production? In answer to this recurring question, the Oil Security System provides for more oil security and more imports too. It permits imports from insecure sources, either upon payment of a fee or if backed by commitments of emergency oil supplies issued by suppliers of secure oil. Such commitments, called guarantees, are obligations to sell on the market oil in an emergency from such sources as inventories, existing wells operated below capacity, capped wells, new wells drilled during the emergency, and diversions of U.S. exports of crude oil and refined products. In turn, possession of a guarantee is the qualification for receiving a fee-exempt import allowance. Both guarantees and fee-exempt import allowances would be bought and sold. Importers of oil would choose the cheaper way of importing between paying the fee and acquiring a fee-exempt import allowance. Under the Oil Security System the information on guarantees would at all times permit the government to maintain a detailed plan specifying where oil would come from and when it would be supplied in an emergency. In most situations, substituting an Oil Security System for an alternative import policy would both reduce the cost of importing oil and increase oil security in the form of emergency oil supplies.
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