Research for Security

On 20 December 1995, the Implementation Force (IFOR) began its operations in support of the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina. In this paper we consider three case studies: IFOR's enforcement of the cantonment provisions of Military Annex, IFOR's role in supporting the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in the supervision and conduct of the national elections in September 1996, and IFOR's management of security issues arising from the attempted resettlement of Bosnians into parts of the Republika Sprska bordering on the Federation. For each case study, we lay out the requirements laid on IFOR's actions by the Dayton Peace Agreement and any applicable NATO guidance, a narrative of significant events, and a discussion of findings and important issues.

Assessing the effectiveness of an ongoing military Humanitarian Assistance Operation (HAO) is difficult. These operations tend to be less familiar to the military; the operation's objectives are often vague; and the initial available information on a humanitarian crisis is often incomplete or inconsistent. But such an assessment is important to provide insight into what strategies are working; where assets need to be shifted; whether more (or fewer) forces are required for specific tasks or the mission as a whole; and when the end of the operation (end state) has been reached. This paper uses lessons from past operations, exercises, and studies to contribute to the military s understanding of how to assess progress in an HAO. We discuss not only measures of effectiveness, but other measures that are useful. This analysis is provided in connection with a Center for Naval Analyses CNA study intended to help the Marine Corps improve its ability to conduct HAOs. The Marine Corps Combat Development Command and I Marine Expeditionary Force sponsored this study.

This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. It focuses on the most probable evolutionary trends for China during this period. China's emergence as a major regional power will be one of the principal factors affecting the security, politics, and economies of Asia and the Pacific between now and 2010. The forces shaping China's emergence are primarily internal, but include such important external factors as Beijing s perceptions of the intentions of its neighbors and of the United States. Much of the uncertainty about China's future course and impact on the region center on whether, and how, China accepts the norms of the international systems that have grown since World War II - norms that have not yet been tested by the rapid rise in national power of a large non-Western country. Alternative scenarios emerging from the rapid changes underway in China could have widely varying implications for this and other issues.

The Commander, Seventh Fleet asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum assesses the dominant economic trends within the region and how those trends will affect prospects both for Asia as a whole and for the main economies within the region by 2010. The study analyzes the region mainly in terms of groups of economies with shared or similar characteristics and behavior.