Research for Seasonality

Historically, the level of fleet manning has varied over the course of the year. Arrivals to and departures from the sea fleet have not coincided well, resulting in significant understaffing at certain times of the year. The objective of this report is to recommend policy options to bring about better matching of enlisted sea gains and losses to reduce the seasonal variation in sea manning. We first document the pattern of seasonal variation. We then decompose the transitions to and from the sea fleet to determine the sources of the variation. Finally, we offer an initial look at certain policies that aim to reduce the seasonal variation. We find substantial variation in sea manning over the course of the year for both E1-E4 and E5-E9 sailors. The main contributor to the seasonal variation in E1-E4 net gains is strength losses at End of Active Obligated Service dates (EAOSs). We construct several policy options that aim to reduce seasonal variation by shifting these EAOSs dates so that they match sea gains more closely.