Research for Sea/Shore Rotation

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Active Duty Individual Manpower Augmentation: Selection and Career Impact
December 1, 2007
As the U.S. and coalition forces prosecute the Global War on Terrorism and support other contingency operations around the world, the demand for Navy manpower to augment deployed forces from all Services has increased dramatically. These manpower augmentation requirements represent unfunded, unplanned, but necessary allotments of Navy personnel to augment existing units and organizations so that Navy and Combatant Commanders can effectively perform their assigned missions. Active duty Servicemembers who are pulled from their current commands and sent on TAD orders to fill these requirements are known as Individual Augmentees (IAs). With this increased demand has come concern about the Navy’s ability to continue to effectively provide manpower to support these requests. To help the Navy address these concerns, CNA examined two issues. The first was whether Servicemembers with particular characteristics were more likely to be selected for IA assignments. Some characteristics, such as paygrade and occupation, may be explicit requirements of the IA request, while others, such as race/ethnicity and marital status, are not. The second issue was whether IA assignments have affected the career progression of active duty Servicemembers. Of particular interest are the effects on retention, promotion, and sea/shore rotation for active duty enlisted Sailors and officers.
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How Does Sea Duty Affect First-Term Reenlistment?: An Analysis Using Post-9/11 Data
May 1, 2006

We examine the relationship between sea duty and first-term reenlistment decisions from FY95 through FY04. Once we control for other factors, we find that Sailors with 4 and 5-year initial obligations are more likely to reenlist if they are rotating to shore rather than rotating to sea over the entire time period examined. Recently, however, there has been a convergence between these reenlistment rate trends that is not explained by any factors in our model. From FY99 to FY03, Sailors with 6-year initial obligations going to sea duty had higher first-term reenlistment than those going to shore duty even controlling for other factors. For Sailors with 4, 5, or 6-year initial obligations we find that a marginal increase in the amount of time expected to be spent on sea duty in the second term does not have a large negative effect on reenlistment. Finally, we find that increasing deployment spells reduces retention, especially since FY00. While we find that marginal changes in sea duty or deployments will not have large negative retention effects, significant changes may. Thus, we discuss how different compensation tools could be used to address any negative retention effects related to sea duty.

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Changes in Sea Intensity Under Alternative Sea Manning Concepts
February 1, 2006
Alternative sea manning concepts (ASMCs), such as flexible deployment concepts, optimal manning, and rotational crewing, will modify not only the ratio of operational to nonoperational billets but also the amount and nature of actual sea time associated with being in an operational billet. In this document, we first define some of the relevant ASMCs and discuss what is known about how they will affect Sailors. In particular, we focus on the effect of ASMCs on how sea-intensive Sailors’ careers will be. We then look at past, current, and forecast sea/shore ratios to provide a baseline and see how this baseline compares with what we might expect under the ASMCs. Finally, we examine the extent to which the changes in Sailors’ careers might affect retention and the implications for compensation.
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