Research for Scenarios

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Puget Sound 1999 Area Oil Spill Exercise: Evaluation Report
May 1, 1999
This report serves as the Navy's formal evaluation for the 1999 Puget Sound Area Oil Spill Exercise. The report includes exercise results, lessons learned, and recommendations. The basic aim of the exercise was to improve the Navy's ability to interface with the local response community in the effort to organize and respond to a worst-case oil spill and to test the response strategies set forth in the regions Area Contingency Plan and Geographic Response Plans. The report examines both the success of the exercise in meeting its fundamental goals and the success of the spill response. Recommendations include conducting additional Incident Command System (ICS) training, ensuring greater familiarity with exercise goals and roles in future exercises, and predetermining the where the command center should be established in the event of a real oil spill.
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Japan 2010: Prospective Profiles
March 1, 1996
This research memorandum is part of a study sponsored by the Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The study attempts to identify the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010, and to derive implications for U.S. forces, particularly the Navy. This memorandum identifies these trends for Japan. The implications for the forces and for the Navy are contained in the final report for this project. The analysis strongly suggests the importance of a stable, credible U.S. presence in Japan in reinforcing Japan s current, yet potentially problematic, pro-U.S. orientation. The U.S. presence will significantly influence Japan' s defense policies because it will determine the credibility of broad U.S. nuclear and other security guarantees to Japan. Such a presence cannot be taken for granted 15 years hence.
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Implementing Readiness-Based Sparing in the Marine Aviation Logistics Support Program: Readiness Implications
December 1, 1995
The Marine Aviation Logistics Support Program (MALSP) was developed to ensure that all logistics support required for major regional contingency can be deployed quickly and efficiently when needed. The foundation for the MALSP is a set of standardized logistics support packages containing all the elements (spare parts, people, support equipment, and mobile facilities) required to support any contingency plan the Marine Corps may be tasked to execute. This study focuses on how the Marine should determine spare parts requirements for the MALSP. Specifically, we were asked by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Aviation, Headquarters Marine Corps to help them answer two questions: What are the potentia
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Hedging Against the Unthinkable: U.S. Military Responses to Third World Nuclear Crises
July 1, 1990
Presents briefing slides and accompanying text on the changing nuclear threat and the assumptions and methodology used for a scenario analysis. Conditions under which U.S. leaders would seriously consider use of military force to deal with Third World nuclear crises and military options of the U.S. are considered. Annexes include threat methodology and a description of scenarios.
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Design, Development, and Play of Navy Wargames
March 1, 1987
This paper describes some of the important elements of wargame design, development, and play. Wargame design is the art of creating a warfare model or simulation to be used in wargaming; wargame development is the process of testing and refining that model to make it more effective in achieving its objectives; and wargame play is the exercising of the model by becoming an integral part of it.
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Why the Short-War Scenario is Wrong for Naval Planning
July 1, 1982
This paper examines the question of whether or not it is sensible to plan U.S. naval forces for a short war with the USSR.
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Northern Waters: Their Strategic Significance
March 1, 1982
This paper provides a discussion of the potential role which the North Atlantic-Norwegian-Barents Sea area could play in a NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict. The author employs a hypothetical scenario which is derived from THE THIRD WORLD WAR by General Sir John Harhett et al.
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