Research for Reserve

Syndicate content
SELRES Manning In Limited-Supply/High-Demand Skills
February 1, 2008
Increased requirements for the Navy Reserve in support of the Global War on Terror have not been distributed evenly across communities; some Limited-Supply/High-Demand (LS/HD) skills are experiencing difficulties in meeting mission requirements. We develop metrics to measure and monitor the Reserve Component’s capacity to meet LS/HD missions and suggest strategies to mitigate manning shortfalls. We construct a model that estimates the ratio of the number of mobilizable reservists that will be available for each mobilization requirement in each quarter for the next 3 years. Working with our sponsor, we established a threshold of 6 mobilizable reservists for each requirement to indicate when a skill is LS/HD. We predict the ratio for 42 enlisted ratings and 14 officer designators. According to our estimates, 31 enlisted ratings and 4 officer designators either already are, or will be, LS/HD within the next 3 years in one or more paygrades. We then illustrate with the Builder (BU) rating how to conduct sensitivity analyses to see the effect on capacity and help identify strategies for improvement. Specifically, we show what would happen to the ratio if continuation rates were increased, if recruiting were increased, or if the mission were decreased.
Read More
USMC Reserve Endstrength Model: User's Guide
April 1, 2007
As the Long War continues, the USMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA) Reserve Manpower Planner must accurately forecast reserve endstrength to ensure that it meets numerical and budgetary thresholds. The planner makes these forecasts using a model contained in a Microsoft (MS) Excel spreadsheet. However, before our efforts, the structure and organization of the spreadsheet made it cumbersome and time consuming to use. The planner also had to manually enter data and several formulas—creating the potential for human error. In addition, the spreadsheet’s size was increasing and was rapidly approaching MS Excel’s worksheet limitations. The planner asked CNA to restructure the spreadsheet to extend its life until the Total Force Manpower Models Reengineering (TFMMR) program is operational and to reduce the potential for human error. The new spreadsheet has a number of benefits over the original spreadsheet, including an extended life span, greater simplicity in use, and less potential for error through the use of automated inputs and formula adjustment. This user’s guide provides a broad overview of how to use the spreadsheet.
Read More
USMC Reserve Endstrength Model
April 1, 2007
As the Long War continues, the USMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA) Reserve Manpower Planner must accurately forecast reserve endstrength to ensure that it meets numerical and budgetary thresholds. The planner makes these forecasts using a model contained in a Microsoft (MS) Excel spreadsheet. However, before our efforts, the structure and organization of the spreadsheet made it cumbersome and time consuming to use. The planner also had to manually enter data and several formulas—creating the potential for human error. In addition, the spreadsheet’s size was increasing and was rapidly approaching MS Excel’s worksheet limitations. The planner asked CNA to restructure the spreadsheet to extend its life until the Total Force Manpower Models Reengineering (TFMMR) program is operational and to reduce the potential for human error. The new spreadsheet has a number of benefits over the original spreadsheet, including an extended life span, greater simplicity in use, and less potential for error through the use of automated inputs and formula adjustment. This briefing provides an overview of our efforts, as well as appendices on the model’s inputs and outputs.
Read More