Research for Research Memoranda

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June 1, 1995
With extensive literature on the treatment of uncertainty in cost estimates, and because several uncertainty software packages are now available, the Naval Center for Cost Analysis asked the Center for Naval Analyses to conduct a study with the objective of evaluating the procedures and software that it now employs. This report begins with a discussion of introductory analytical issues and then focuses on the software packages that were evaluated. Additional analytical questions are addressed in connection with those evaluations.
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June 1, 1995
In this paper, we compare the in-house cost of conducting Department of the Navy program management and oversight in accordance with Department of Defense regulations and requirements, to the cost of conducting those same functions in accordance with commercial practice.
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May 1, 1995
This report poses the question of how many women's bunks are needed in the larger context of enlisted personnel management policies. The relevant aspects of personnel policy are the number of female accession, their occupational distribution, and women's continuation behavior. In addition, the decision on the number of women's bunks is connected to possible policy goals in the areas of gender-neutral recruiting, female leadership afloat, equal access to assignments, and the related issue of gender differences in shipboard duty.
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May 1, 1995

One issue the Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed Services (CORM) is examining is the appropriate mix of Army and Marine corps capabilities for forcible entry. This research memorandum briefly examines the United States' use of military forces for forcible entry, sustained land operations, and sustained land combat since the Second World War. In terms of forcible-entry capabilities, it not only examines cases of forcible entry involving combat, but also highlights some non-combat and contingency-response uses of forcible-entry capabilities.

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March 1, 1995
What are the cost and capability tradeoffs between land-based and sea-based tactical aviation? This recurring question reared its head again in 1994, when the Air Force presented certain cost data to the Commission on Roles and Missions (CORM). That data included cost estimates for F-15 and F-16 tactical fighter wings (TFWs), with each wing consisting of 72 aircraft. The Air Force also estimated costs for what it characterized as a 60-aircraft Navy carrier air wing (CVW), and the CVW's associated aircraft carrier (CV). Examination of the results has brought to light the fact that the model used to generate TFW costs and the one that produced the CVW/CV costs are quite dissimilar conceptually--the differences due largely to the treatment of indirect costs. As a potential contribution to the debate, we developed cost estimates that are directly comparable conceptually. This is a summary report. See 27 950019.00 for the complete study.
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March 1, 1995
As part of the CNa project on the Marine Corps and Humanitarian Assistance Operations, sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Center (MCCDC), this research memorandum examines USMC involvement in seven Humanitarian Assistance/Peace Operation (HA/POs). This project seeks to help MCCDC identify requirements (whether in doctrine, organization, training, or equipment) to improve the Marine Corps' ability to effectively perform HA/PO tasks. The project team is identifying the range of HA/PO requirements through a variety of methods, including seminar gaming, evaluation of existing doctrine and policies, and evaluation of the historical record.
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February 1, 1995
The Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Plans, Policy and Operations asked the Center for Naval Analyses to evaluate Argentine naval strategy, its political and economic sustainability, its impact on other key nations in South America, and the implications for U.S. naval relations with countries of the Southern Cone. Thus, we examined in-depth the political-military environment in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile--the three naval powers of the Southern Cone. The study considers the impact of civilian leadership on the Southern Cone armed forces, and navies in particular. It documents the themes of defense policies evolving within the region, examines broad political support for the armed forces in general, and gives special attention to navy roles and missions. The study also recommends approaches for the U.S. Navy in developing a long-term strategy toward the Southern Cone and Latin America.
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February 1, 1995
With the end of the Cold War and the emergence of a new era, many of the overarching concepts behind U.S. defense policy are open to questioning. In the Cold War, deterrence was perhaps the key concept. The thinking about deterrence--both theoretical and policy-related consideration--focused on nuclear deterrence issues. In the new era, deterrence remains a key issue but the focus turns to 'conventional' deterrence. Key associated concepts in this emerging new world order are compulsion and reassurance. This paper provides some perspectives on the role of naval forces in deterrence, compulsion, and reassurance in the post-Cold War era. In addition to a brief overview of some of the theoretical issues surrounding deterrence, this paper focuses on some concrete examples of U.S. Navy and Marine Corps actions in response to or amidst international crises over the past 40 years. It discusses the ways these actions might have compelled an opponent to stop or reverse some action, deterred a potential adversary from taking some action, and/or reassured an ally to take some type of action.
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January 1, 1995
CNA was asked to help determine a cost-effective solution to the pending retirement of the KC-130F aircraft. The study was to be done in two phases. In phase I, we were to assess whether it made sense, from an economic and operational standpoint, to conduct a second Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) on the aircraft rather than procure new production KC-130s. The first SLEP, which was performed in the late 1980s and early 1990s, was done mainly to correct structural defects. The tasker asked us to use the Lockheed KC-130X as the new production model. This paper reports the results of phase I.
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December 1, 1994
In a previous research, we showed how the Navy can cut the cost of carrier Aviation Consolidated Allowance Lists (AVCALs) by as much as 26 percent without cutting readiness by implementing Readiness-Based Sparing (RBS). The RBS method of selecting inventory allowances is different from the current Demand-Based Sparing (DBS) method in that it links supply resources to aircraft readiness at least cost. Our earlier RBS work prompted the Navy to conduct an at-sea test of an RBS AVCAL on USS AMERICA. The Navy asked us to perform the analysis and report the results. In this memorandum, we analyze how well AMERICA's new RBS AVCAL supported the airwing during its 1993-94 deployment and report our findings. We summarize the results of our analysis and the aviation support lessons we learned. We discuss how RBS AVCALs fit into the Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) system, present our analysis approach, and describe our analysis of mission capable rates, maintenance operations, and cannibalization actions.
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