Research for Research Memoranda

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December 1, 1995
The Marine Aviation Logistics Support Program (MALSP) was developed to ensure that all logistics support required for major regional contingency can be deployed quickly and efficiently when needed. The foundation for the MALSP is a set of standardized logistics support packages containing all the elements (spare parts, people, support equipment, and mobile facilities) required to support any contingency plan the Marine Corps may be tasked to execute. This study focuses on how the Marine should determine spare parts requirements for the MALSP. Specifically, we were asked by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Aviation, Headquarters Marine Corps to help them answer two questions: What are the potentia
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November 1, 1995
The health care system in the United States has changed substantially in recent decades. We have increased our spending on health care, both in absolute terms and as a relative share of total spending. The methods of delivery of health care, technological capabilities, demographics, and the sources of payment for health care expenditures have also changed a great deal. This research memorandum examines recent trends in three sectors of our health care system: the private insurance sector, Medicare, and Medicaid. The creation of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965 has had a strong influence on our health care system, and the private insurance market for health care coverage has changed considerably as well, To date, efforts to slow the rate of growth of health care costs have focused on cost containment methods to limit utilization, and have not addressed the implications of structural changes in society and our health care market.
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October 1, 1995
The military and civilian health care systems, while distinctly different, share some concerns. These common concerns include the overutilization of inpatient care and the rising cost of medical care. Overutilization is of concern in the private sector for a number of reasons. First, insurance reduces the sensitivity of individuals to health care costs. As a result, people may use too much medical care. Cost sharing and cost containment programs tend to reduce this problem. Second, doctors may increase the use of medical services to increase their own profits and to shelter themselves from malpractice suits (i.e., defensive medicine). Cost containment programs - like concurrent review - help to reduce this incentive. Overutilization is also a concern in the military sector. Like the civilian sector, beneficiaries may use too much health care because insurance reduces the cost of care. In addition, the Department of Defense historically allocated resources to hospitals on the basis of past need. As a result, hospital commander had no financial incentive to curtain hospitalizations. This paper, which is part of a CNA self-initiated study, compares the inpatient use of nine military catchment areas to the civilian sector. The variables we study include: gender- and age-adjusted inpatient admission rate, and case-mix-adjusted length of inpatient hospital stay. Length of stay measures the intensity of treatment once a patient enters the hospital. The inpatient admission rate measures the likelihood of entering the h
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October 1, 1995
In the post-Cold War world, with defense downsizing, nations are likely to work together at sea. One particularly difficult challenge in multinational maritime operations is overcoming differences in Rules of Engagement (ROE). ROE address when, where, against whom, how, and how much force can be used. The varying capabilities, doctrine, political objectives, security interests, civil-military relations, and cultures of the members of multinational operations affect ROE. This paper outlines some common principles, problems, and procedures for reducing the risks of ROE incompatibility and increasing ROE interoperability in multinational maritime operations. The goal of ROE interpretability is to improve the ability of multinational forces to function together safely, effectively, and strategically by ensuring uniform actions and uniform understanding. This paper suggests steps that could foster ROE interoperability and could be taken in advance of real-world contingencies.
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October 1, 1995
As part of the Tricare- Tidewater evaluation, CNA fielded a military beneficiary health care survey in the fall of 1992 to collect information on access, satisfaction, health status, and utilization. To supplement these data, and support the Tricare evaluation, we developed an administrative data set using claims data from the Civilian Health and Medical Program for the Uniformed Services (CHAMPUS), Biometrics records, and Medical Expense and Performance Reporting System (MEPRS) data. This administrative data set provides not only cost information but also detailed utilization records, including information about specific diagnoses and treatments. While working with the survey data, we observed internal inconsistencies in how people responded to the utilization section of the survey. These inconsistencies raised concerns about the veracity of the self-reported use measures. Given these concerns and the unique opportunity of having both survey and administrative measures of use for the same population, we thought it was appropriate to attempt to validate the self-reported utilization data against administrative records. In this paper, we compare the self-reported utilization data to the corresponding administrative utilization data, created from the CHAMPUS Quick Response Data File and Biometrics records, for a subset of our survey respondents. We look at incidences of overreporting and underreporting use in the survey data, and we attempt to explain these occurrences and the impact of this misreporting on aggre
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September 1, 1995
We will not make fundamental progress at reforming the health care system until we, as a nation, come to grips with the issue of how we should ration care. Although we have not been able to come to a consensus on this issue, we remain uncomfortable with our current hybrid system that is a mix of government programs and market options. Recent attempts at comprehensive reform failed because of a lack of agreement on the appropriate shape of reform. These experiences are specifically of interest to those engaged in policy-making with regard to the ongoing evolution of the U.S. health care system. However, we are all likely to be affected by policy changes that alter our health care systems, and it is important to understand what happened during our recent effort to seek health care reform and what is likely to occur in the future. To understand the issues underlying health care reform and the likely future of the American health care system, this paper addresses the following questions: What is the history of health care reform for the United States?; Why did we reengage health care reform in recent years?; What factors caused health care reform efforts to fail?; Does our health care system have major problems (have we begun to fix the problems; or have we decided that we don't know what to do yet)?; How do we compare to other countries?; and, Will health care reform come back again, and, if so, what are the questions we need to answer before then?
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September 1, 1995
The Consolidated Automated Support System (CASS) is a computerized Automatic Test Equipment (ATE) system that is currently being fielded by the Department of the Navy. Over the next several years, CASS will replace many existing ATE systems and help the Navy standardize test and training procedures. The Director of the Navy's Air Warfare Division (N88) and the Support Equipment Office (PMA-260) asked CNA to review the Navy's current plans for CASS implementation within the fleet. Among other things, these plans call for the phased integration of CASS into carrier Aircraft Intermediate Maintenance Departments (AIMDs). This paper is part of our workload assessment of these plans for carrier AIMDs. Our sponsors wanted answers to two questions: (1) how many (total) CASS stations do carrier AIMDs need?; and (2) more specifically, how many of each type of CASS do they need? In a previous analysis, we explored these questions for CASS support of existing weapons systems only. In this paper, we expand on that analysis by including CASS support of emerging weapons systems as well.
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August 1, 1995
In November 1994, the Secretary of the Navy asked the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development and Acquisition) [ASN(RD&A)] to assess the minimum essential industrial base that the Department must sustain. The assessment was to become part of the FY97 Program Review (PR-97). In turn, ASN(RD&A) asked CNA to help support the assessment process. In addition to PR-97 support, the sponsor asked CNA to develop a framework for addressing industrial base questions because the Navy Department is required to perform many of these industrial base assessments. This paper proposes a CNA methodology for conducting industrial base studies. It is designed as an instructional document to guide analysts in capturing economic sources of industrial base risks. This framework helps to identify likely problems and then to tailor feasible solutions. The framework is general enough to be applied to a wide variety of industrial base items. The goal of this paper is to separate the important factors regarding the industrial base from the extraneous ones. By highlighting the key elements and economic dynamics, the methodology can support Navy and Marine Corps decisions on critical industrial base issues.
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July 1, 1995
The rapid decline of the defense budget since the fall of the Soviet Union has led to severely reduced procurement accounts for all the Military Services, and these declining budgets are likely to continue well into the next decade. For the Department of the Navy, with its many competing procurement demands, the declining budgets mean that (a) future shipbuilding must be scaled back, and (b) the question of quantity versus capability will become the paramount question as the Navy develops requirements for all new ships. In this paper, which was prepared prior to the start of the Cost and Operational Analysis of the next-generation surface combatant (SC21), I propose that one alternative that should be considered for the SC21 requirement is a set of two ships: a fully capable ship and a moderately capable ship, with the moderately capable design potentially having Coast Guard and foreign military sales application. For maximum standardization and affordability, the two ship types should be designed concurrently by one design team and introduced into the fleet at the same time in a mix consistent with fleet sizing requirements. To meet expected budgetary constraints, both ship types should be developed with firm design-to-cost constraints.
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July 1, 1995
This CNA-sponsored study identifies implications of nuclear possession between 1994 and 2003 in distant Third World areas. It identifies policies and programs affecting the design, organization, location, and employment of future U.S. forces. After exploring potential paths for the acquisition of nuclear weapons, we examined how five notional political crises (North Korea, Iran, Syria/Libya, India/Pakistan, and Algeria) evolved into nuclear confrontations. Then we analyzed what U.S. interests were relevant for each case, what political and military instruments were available, and how well they worked. Also highlighted are what the successes and failures in these cases imply for policy, strategy, and force development. We analyzed the following questions: (1) Why would some state or other party want nuclear weapons, how would it acquire them, and how fast? (2) What U.S. interests were at stake in each crisis? (3) Could nuclear use or threat of use be deterred, and how? (4) Was preemption possible, and did it make sense? (5) What kind of retaliation was feasible and justifiable? (6) How, and to what extent, did third parties participate? (7) How does the prospect of nuclear use (the nuclear shadow) affect military operations? and (8) What was the relative importance of various force components in the notional crises.
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