Research for Research Memoranda

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Korea in the 21st Century
February 1, 1996
The Commander, Seventh Fleet, asked CNA to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region between now and 2010. This research memorandum focuses on the most probable evolutionary trends for Korea during this period. For Korea the development of an Asian nation-state system comes at a time of historic power relative to anything of the past century. The problem for the Korean people, historically, was that Korea was a weak state surrounded by strong empires in China, Russia, and Japan. The economic development of Korea over the past 30 years is a remarkable success story, although this development took place in a peaceful stable environment. The problem facing Korea is whether it can successfully continue its economic progress in a world that is more competitive, more wary of exploitative economic practices, any more dominated by large countries who have in the past been enemies.
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San Diego 1995 Preparedness for Response Exercise Program (PREP) Exercise Evaluation Report
February 1, 1996
The Exxon Valdez disaster of March 1989 revealed major shortcomings in this nation's ability to deal with such an incident, and resulted in the passage of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA-90). In general, OPA-90 called for increased preparedness for major oil spills by requiring information of area committees, preparation of area plans, and periodic exercises. It was in response to this requirement for periodic exercises that the Coast Guard, Environmental Protection Agency, Research and Special Programs Office of Pipeline Safety, and Mineral Management Service developed the Preparedness for Response Exercise Program (PREP). The country is divided into 60 areas for oil spill response. PREP conducts 20 area exercises per year, so that each area is exercised once every three years. The 1995 San Diego PREP area exercise was the first exercise led by the Navy. This report serves as the formal evaluation report for the 1995 San Diego PREP area exercise and satisfies all Navy documentation requirements under PREP.
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USCGC Dallas Med/Black Sea Deployment: Regional Engagement and USCG-USN Interoperability
January 1, 1996
COMSIXTHFLT received several requests from littoral nations for training and interaction in maritime law enforcement, maritime interception, search and rescue, fisheries protection, and other coastal patrol operations. In response, COMSIXTHFLT requested that a U.S. Coast Guard cutter deploy to the Mediterranean and Black Sea from 29 May through 28 August 1995. USCGC DALLAS (WHEC 716) subsequently visited seven nations: Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Tunisia, Slovenia, Italy, and Albania. COMSIXTHFLT requested that a CNA analyst be embarked on USCGC DALLAS to assess the cutter's regional engagement role vis-a-vis U.S. Navy units and to identify analytic issues regarding USCG-USN interpretability. This report examines USCGC DALLAS's operational role during battle-group operations and identifies a number of issues that affect USCG-USN interoperability.
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Tricare and Readiness
January 1, 1996
This report begins with the authors developing a medical readiness framework as a backdrop for relating Tricare and readiness. The authors then describe results from data available to begin to look at the effect of Tricare on readiness. The quantitative measures available are indirect and show little evidence of changes due to Tricare. Part of the reason for this lack of evidence may be that the implementation of Tricare is not complete or that many of the tensions between readiness and peacetime care transcend the specific system of care. In any event, the authors cannot make conclusions regarding the effect of Tricare on medical readiness at this point in time. They can, however, summarize their framework and insights gained in attempting to link Tricare and readiness, with sights set on the goal of improving readiness in the future and the knowledge that Tricare will be the system in place.
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The Dynamics of Security in the Asia-Pacific Region
January 1, 1996
This memorandum is the final report of a study sponsored by Commander, Seventh Fleet, to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. The primary issues were how the fleet's purposes and objectives will change between now and 2010, and what the now-identifiable trends imply for fleet operations, problems, and opportunities. In response, we identified the most probable evolutionary trends in the APR out to 2010 and derived implications for U.S. forces, and in particular the Navy. For purposes of this study, the APR corresponds to the Seventh Fleet's area of operations - that is, roughly from Kamchatka to the Indian frontier with Pakistan. We analyzed the effects that these trends would have on the APR, projected effects of such trends on U.S. national interests and objectives, and attempted to derive the implications of identifiable national and transnational trends for defense policies and programs, including but not confined to the policies and programs of the naval services.
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Some New Estimates of the Navy's Indirect Manning Costs
December 1, 1995
How does a change in the manning of ships and squadrons at sea affect the Navy's shore-based manning? This question, while hardly new, has arisen recently in several different contexts. One involves cost-effectivness analyses of arsenal ships - which require relatively small crews - as alternatives to traditional surface combatants. The purpose of this paper is to provide a set of empirical estimates of the response of ashore manning to changes in manning of ships and squadrons - hereafter called afloat manning - based on the most recent time-series information available. Over the past six or seven years, the drawdowns in budgets, force structure, and manning have been substantial. Inclusion of that experience in the database from which cost-estimating relationships are developed is essential to the validity of the relationships for use in assessing the cost consequences of decisions presently or soon to be at hand. The analytical construct adopted here is a model that posits delayed adjustment of shore manning to changes in afloat manning.
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Human Dimensions of Asian Security
December 1, 1995
The Commander, Seventh Fleet asked the Center for Naval Analyses to assess the security environment of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) between now and 2010. This research memorandum assesses trends in those demographic, health, social, agricultural, and sustenance issues with the potential effects for security throughout the region. Data presented are for the most recent years or decades, and projections are for the 15-year period 1995-2010 unless otherwise specified.
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Conversion of Naval Shipyards to Commercial Shipyards
December 1, 1995
Over the past four years, the Base Realignment and Closure Commissions have recommended closing half of the Navy's public shipyards in response to the downsizing of the nation's defense establishment. Three of the communities directly affected by shipyard closing - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Charleston, South Carolina, and Vallejo, California (which is the redevelopment authority for Mare Island Naval Shipyard) - were notified in 1993 or before, and each has responded differently. Individual responses and assessments of conversion success to date are subjects of this report. The Long Beach Naval Shipyard is on the recently approved 1995 base closure list and is just beginning the process of developing its reuse strategies. CNA was specifically asked to: examine the prospect of converting a Naval shipyard into a commercial shipyard; and analyze the social and economic challenges these communities might face under such a conversion effort.
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Tricare Baseline Analysis of Access and Satisfaction
December 1, 1995
The U.S. Navy Surgeon General tasked the Center for Naval Analyses to evaluate the TRICARE demonstration project. This demonstration is an attempt to coordinate health care for the medical-eligible military population of 300,000 in the Tidewater area of Virginia. When TRICARE matures, it will integrate a series of military treatment facilities, a preferred provider network, and a health maintenance organization, under joint service management. The evaluation consists of a comparison of several measures of effectiveness, before and after TRICARE implementation. We will be comparing Tidewater with two other regions: southern California, which is under CRI (a managed care program), and North Carolina, which is under standard CHAMPUS. The evaluation will take about three years to complete. In the meantime, we have collected baseline data for Tidewater and the comparison sites. The purpose of this paper is to present the findings of the baseline analysis of access to, and satisfaction with, health care during the pre-implementation period. This is not an evaluation of TRICARE. The results will be helpful in interpreting subsequent changes in the components of the program after TRICARE implementation.
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