Research for Research Memoranda

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April 1, 1986
Within a few years the Department of Defense may begin administering the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) using Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). Each test item is characterized by an Item Response Curve (IRC), which describes how the probability of correctly answering the item increases with ability. One important question in the CAT project is whether the IRCs are the same in paper-pencil and CAT administrations. This paper examines this issue.
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March 1, 1986
Navy veteran (NAVET) affiliations to the Selected Reserve (SELRES) are examined. Affiliation rates by rating are calculated using national data. These affiliation rates are shown to vary across rating, Reserve Recruiting and Manning Objective System (RAMOS) category, and bonus eligibility.
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March 1, 1986
Two policies for achieving Selected Reserve manning goals are to increase Reserve pay and to increase recruiting efforts. This paper discusses methods of estimating the effect of these policies on enlisted Selected Reserve supply.
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March 1, 1986
A nomogram for optimal search is presented in this paper. It can be used to estimate the amount of search effort required to achieve specified levels of detection probability. The nomogram can also be used to determine how the search effort should be distributed in order to approximate an optimal allocation. Applications include deep ocean search and surface surveillance.
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February 1, 1986
The research reported here examines overall training effectiveness for U.S. Naval personnel; the measure of effectiveness comes from the survey responses of the supervisors of first-term enlisted Naval personnel. These supervisors were asked about the productivity of 'typical' first-term personnel who were schooled in the classroom or trained on the job for 12 Navy occupational categories. Overall, these specialties characterize a broad cross-section of Navy jobs that vary considerably in technical complexity and formal school length. Comparisons are drawn between the two training methods. Finally, the usefulness of research on training effectivenes in other areas of military manpower research is discussed.
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February 1, 1986
This paper presents formulas for the initial and final headings on the shortest great circle path between an origin 'O' and a destination 'D' whose positions are specified by latitude and longitude. A FORTRAN subroutine to implement the formulas is also included.
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February 1, 1986
The value of aircraft simulators as measures of training readiness are studied. Simulator evaluations are analyzed for reserve enlisted crewmen on Navy patrol aircraft. Part-time reservists are found to have very little skill loss over time and perform as well as their full-time counterparts. Experience in the simulator produces substantial increases in subsequent evaluation scores. Simulated flights appear to be useful measures of readiness and valuable training experience.
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February 1, 1986
In computerized adaptive testing, an examinee's ability is often estimated using Bayesian procedures. Its calculation is greatly simplified if one uses Owen's approximation. However, when the test length is moderate (e.g., 15 items), the accuracy of Owen's approximation is inadequate for calculating the examinee's score. This is illustrated using the nine power subtests in the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. The recommended procedure is to use Owen's approximation for adaptive item selection, and to compute the exact Bayesian estimate after the entire test has been administered.
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February 1, 1986
The major roles of wargames, exercises, and analysis are outlined in this memorandum. Their interrelationships are examined and some of the ways they can complement each other in the study of the Navy's warfighting capabilities are also defined.
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February 1, 1986
Ways to measure the marginal benefits and marginal costs of graduate education to help allocate the Navy's educational resources are explored. A major portion of the analysis deals with the difficult problems that arise in the measurement of the marginal benefits. It also discusses the components and measurement of the marginal cost and concludes with a brief analysis of the way in which the Navy currently allocates its graduate education resources.
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