Research for Research Memoranda

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The Effect of EM Manning on the Material Condition of the Electrical Distribution System
November 1, 1987
The factors that affect the material condition of a ship's Electrical Distribution System (EDS) are investigated in this research memorandum. Deficiencies discovered by the Naval Board of Inspection and Survey (INSURV) are used as a proxy for the material condition of the EDS. Special attention is paid to the effect of ship age, ship size, and Electrician's Mate manning.
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A Sparing Model for Sea-Based Aircraft Parts
November 1, 1987
When an aircraft is being repaired or inspected and a certain part is found to have failed, the part is replaced immediately, if a spare part is available. This research memorandum describes a queueing model used to analyze a sparing decision for a part with general probabilistic demand. It also describes an extension of the model to include discriminating treatment of the repair and resupply pipelines. The final section applies the model to an example.
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Evaluation of the Targeted Enlistment Bonus (TEB) for Nuclear Field Recruits
November 1, 1987
The last of three evaluations of the Targeted Enlistment Bonus (TEB) for Nuclear Field recruits is contained in this research memorandum. The TEB differs from previous enlistment bonuses by varying the bonus amounts according to the season a recruit begins active duty. Historically, Nuclear Field accessions have been characterized by a seasonal surge in the summer months, reflecting the presence of many Nuclear Field recruits for beginning service shortly after obtaining a high school diploma. The TEB is designed to assist recruiters in achieving a more level flow of accessions during the year. It was tested during an eighteen month period. For the evaluation, Nuclear Field recruits during this period are compared to those of previous years in terms of the phasing of accessions and enlistment contracts, and indicators of recruit quality. Savings associated with the TEB experiment are calculated, and the implications for potential changes in the TEB are drawn.
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Bayesian Estimation of n in a Binomial Distribution
October 1, 1987
A method has been developed to estimate the total number of trials, 'n', from a Bayesian perspective when the probability of success, 'p', is either known or unknown. The prior distribution for 'n' is assumed to be the discrete uniform distribution. In the case when 'p' is unknown, 'p' is assumed to have a beta prior distribution. The estimate for 'n' is then the mode of the posterior distribution. Additionally, guidelines for selecting shape parameters for the beta distributions are discussed.
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Properties of Some Bayesian Scoring Procedures for Computerized Adaptive Tests
August 1, 1987
The computerized adaptive version of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery will use a Bayesian procedure for computing test scores. Properties of three common Bayesian procedures are examined in this research memorandum. The results show that the procedures are almost equally reliable and that reliability drops if item parameters change from paper-pencil to computerized administration.
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Selection Criteria for Professional Military Education
August 1, 1987
The Marine Corps provides Professional Military Education (PME) for its noncommissioned officers. Each level of training is designed to provide the leadership skills necessary for advancement in rank. This research memorandum shows that prior performance, time in grade, length to end of active service, and operational commitments affect the selection of eligible Marines into some of the resident courses.
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The Navy Manpower-Requirements System
August 1, 1987
A key factor in the Navy's ability to meet its peacetime and wartime contingencies is the supply of trained manpower available to perform assigned missions. This research memorandum describes the process used by the Navy to set, implement, and execute manpower requirements. In addition, it presents conclusions and makes recommendations for improving those processes.
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Dimensionality of the Math Knowledge Item Pool for the Accelerated CAT-ASVAB Project
August 1, 1987
The theory underlying computerized adaptive tests assumes that all items for a given subtest measure a single dimension. This assumption was examined for the math knowledge items in the item pool developed for the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. Departures from the assumption were found to be minor.
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Manning Issues in the Surface-Expansion TAR Program
August 1, 1987
The growth of the surface Reserve forces has created a need for more Training and Administration of the Reserve (TAR) personnel. This research memorandum investigates whether enlisted personnel inventories of the TAR surface-expansion program can meet required goals. Historical trends in accessions and retention are analyzed and the composition of requirements is discussed. An inventory projection model is developed and used to predict whether future requirements can be met in a base case, or if they can be met if various policies are adopted.
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Issues in Estimating Enlistment Supply
August 1, 1987
Over the past two decades there have been numerous studies of military enlistment supply. This research memorandum analyzes several key econometric issues in the estimation of enlistment supply models. The analysis focuses on the role of goals, the problems of measurement error, and the simultaneity between the variables used in empirical analyses and unobserved factors. Several econometric methods are proposed as possible solutions.
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