Research for Research Memoranda

Gaming is a tool that the military has used with great success to gain insights into the feasibility of alternative strategies or tactics before actually putting one into practice. Although gaming does not provide real answers, it can provide insights into strategic 'what if' questions. The validity of the insights gained is largely a function of the reality designed into the game and the willingness of the players to immerse themselves in the play. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) asked CNA to design a game based on a business sector undergoing change in response to the defense drawdown. The shipbuilding industry was chosen because (1) it is a critical business sector for U.S. economic and military security, (2) it is facing major near-term strategic and tactical decisions that will define its future, and (3) it could be gamed with a high degree of realism. The purpose of the game was to bring together important leaders from government and industry to exchange information and gain insights. Specifically, we wanted to help industry and government leaders answer the following questions: (a) How can the U.S. shipbuilding industry compete in the global market? and (b) What technologies enhance or promote U.S. competitiveness in this market? The game was designed with these objectives in mind. This research memorandum describes the game design and the game play, and provides a summary of the panel discussions, the shipyard play, and the lessons learned.

The post-Cold War national security strategy engages U.S. power in all its form to shape a more secure world. Overseas presence--operating forces forward to influence what foreign governments think and do--is the most important and challenging of the tasks this strategy assigns the Armed Forces. This paper looks at the political and strategic case for presence and discusses some of its costs and risks. It draws conclusions about: (1) what presence means in our use of the forces we have now; and (2) what forces to buy for the future. It also suggests ways to make presence operations more efficient and issues deserving study in that regard.

As our nation's military continues to draw down and reshape itself, two important resources can be strategically reinvested to strengthen youth: (1) military personnel either serving or making the transition to civilian life; and (2) military facilities, including those undergoing closure or 'realignment' (shifting functions or duties). The Center for Naval Analyses has examined these ideas within its Veterans Transition and Defense Conversion Project over the past ten months. This research memorandum builds on the findings of Phase I of the study, and presents our analysis of the concept of 'Strategic Reinvestment to Strengthen Youth.' Whereas the main objective of Phase I (November 1992 through January 1993) was to develop a conceptual view between the youth services and defense communities, the goal of Phase II (February through September 1993) was to develop the framework for an assessment process designed to connect such military resources to youth within communities.

The focus of this paper, which draws liberally from an earlier CNA paper that also employed Monte Carlo methods, is on the predictive accuracy of cost-estimating relationships whose parameters are estimated by both ordinary least squares regression and non-linear least squares, first when the error structure is known to be multiplicative and then when it is known to be additive. The multi-predictor model that served as the basis of the Monte Carlo simulations is representative of models that cost analysts frequently deal with. Results suggest that predictions based on non-linear least squares are substantially better than those based on ordinary least squares when the errors are additive, and are only slightly inferior when the error term is multiplicative.