Research for Research Memoranda

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May 1, 1999
This report serves as the Navy's formal evaluation for the 1999 Puget Sound Area Oil Spill Exercise. The report includes exercise results, lessons learned, and recommendations. The basic aim of the exercise was to improve the Navy's ability to interface with the local response community in the effort to organize and respond to a worst-case oil spill and to test the response strategies set forth in the regions Area Contingency Plan and Geographic Response Plans. The report examines both the success of the exercise in meeting its fundamental goals and the success of the spill response. Recommendations include conducting additional Incident Command System (ICS) training, ensuring greater familiarity with exercise goals and roles in future exercises, and predetermining the where the command center should be established in the event of a real oil spill.
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March 1, 1999
The Deputy of Chief of Naval Operations for Manpower and Personnel asked CNA to study various issues related to maintaining fleet readiness while expanding the role of women in the operating forces. First, we studied the pattern of losses of personnel from ships by gender and explored policies aimed at reducing them. Second, we updated a CNA planning model that links women's accession plans, bunk plans, and a variety of personnel policy parameters. Recommendations include maintaining a presence of female Chief Petty Officers of a least 5 percent of the female crew in order to reduce the level of unplanned losses of junior women, and increasing A-School proportion of female accessions in order to improve retention of female personnel.
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February 1, 1999
As part of a larger project for Commander in Chief, Pacific Fleet examining the ability of afloat naval forces to respond to disasters and other emergencies in the CINCPACFLT area of interest, this paper looks at some of the requirements for disaster relief operations. It examines what disasters are likely to occur in the area of interest, how these disasters evolve, what response is required, and who meets these requirements when the military does not show up. Almost every type of disaster occurs in CINCPACFLT's area of interest, ranging from natural disasters to complex emergencies. Disasters evolve along a well-known trajectory, and the paper looks at timelines for the various types. Requirements for disaster response can vary widely according to the type of disaster, but vary less between events of the same general type. Another consistent fact we find in examining disaster relief operations is the growing capability of the non-government and international communities to respond.
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December 1, 1998
The Naval Strike and Warfare Center asked the Center for Naval Analyses to help evaluate and analyze carrier and air wing sortie-generation capacity. Specifically, we set out to determine the firepower capacity of an embarked air wing, the factors that constrain the sortie-generation capacity, and ways to enhance the fire power capacity. In this paper, we create a base case focusing on the three major requirements of the creation of sea-based air power: the aircraft must be mission capable, the aircrew must be able to fly the aircraft, and the flight deck crews must ready aircraft for flight, launch aircraft, and recover aircraft after the completion of their missions. Our estimates of the capacity of the airframes, the aircrew, and the carrier and air wing's ability to launch, recover, and ready aircraft for launch rely on the characteristics of the base case.
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December 1, 1998

This paper looks at the history of the U.S. Navy forces and their involvement in smaller-scale contingency (SSC) operations, drawing from both earlier naval history, called its 'Deep Legacy', and the Cold War experience. The goal being to organize the history of naval involvement in SSC and, to a lesser extent, in operations other than war, to help identify the spectrum of policy options available to today's naval planners when they are thinking about SSC. It identifies patterns in how the Navy has reacted and adapted to its environments, including changing its procurement, organization, deployment and employment policies and structures. In addition to adapting to the environment, the paper examines the development of new technologies and the Navy's culture and attitudes driving decisions. DTIC AD-A360116

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July 1, 1998
'Mission Creep' is a code-word phrase that influences the US government s approach to military operations even though no common definition or understanding exists as to what 'mission creep' means. This research memorandum attempts to shed some light on the term and improve the level of debate surrounding mil tary operations and tasks within these operations. Using NATO operations in Bosnia-Herzegovina as a basis, it examines nine conceptions of 'mission creep', providing examples of the term used in each context and implications of eac h definition. The paper also explores the anxieties and causes of 'mission creep' and provides a framework for understanding and describing the dimensions of mission change.
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June 1, 1998
The purpose of this study is to help the Navy identify the costs imposed on the Navy manpower system when military billets are outsourced. In particular, this paper examines how competition will affect the Navy's ability to achieve its objectives with respect to sea-shore rotation and homebasing. It provides, by community, estimates of how different outsourcing options would affect these military manpower decisions. The paper concludes that personnel policy constraints, especially the goal of providing an adequate base of shore billets for rotation, place significant limits on the number of military billets entered into A-76 competitions. Given the magnitude of manpower constraints, the Navy has two policy options: reduce the number of military billets to be competed or loosen the number of constraints. Loosening the constraints would involve: more carefully defining sea/shore ratios, allowing some A-76 competitions with high expected savings to be completed even if exceptions must be made to personnel policy goals, examining overseas shore billets that count as sea duty as good outsourcing candidates, and reexamining some of the IBR exclusions, especially for shore-intensive ratings. DTIC AD-B239314
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June 1, 1998
Lately, there has been a lot of debate about how military operations are changing. Changes in information technology and the ability to transmit new types of information may be affecting the character of warfare. The end of the Cold War, along with other social and political changes, are also seen as important harbingers of change in the way military forces are used. Some believe that we are either in, or at the beginning of, a revolution in military affairs (RMA). This study looks at what planning and events surrounding a recent operation. Operation UPHOLD DEMOCRACY, the U.S.-led intervention in Haiti, tell us about the question: What do changes in technology and operations mean for the operational level (Joint Task Force) commander?
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June 1, 1998
A primary tasking for this study was to build a permanent database integrating Navy recruiting, training, and manpower/personnel data which would follow recruits from street to fleet and use variables designed to capture the kinds of information needed by decision-makers. This paper summarizes our analyses and briefly describes the database. It begins with the different analyses we did of the bootcamp period, goes on to a discussion of rating attainment, and finishes with our analyses of trained sailors in the fleet. Findings and recommendations include coding separation reasons more consistently, revising the CNET monthly bootcamp attrition report, more careful screening of sailors with nonacademic course failures who are sent to the fleet, and supporting initiatives to provide a second chance at school for sailors who fail an A-school course.
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June 1, 1998
This study examines potential manpower costs of outsourcing Navy jobs that result from more Sailors having to work out-of-skill. To examine these costs, we estimated the effects on retention and advancement of working in billets related to one's skill and in instructor billets. Focusing on E5 and E6 billets, we then compare the quantifiable costs of outsourcing military billets to the expected savings. Currently, 49.6 percent of E5 and E6 Sailors are assigned to rating-specific NECs on their shore tours. The analysis finds that if more than 49.6 percent of the outsourced billets are rating-specific, there would be fewer opportunities to work in-skill and lower retention, which would lead to costs to offset. We recommend that, when determining what billets to compete, the Navy start with general skill billets and other out-of-skill billets. Furthermore, if the Navy were to compete in-skill billets, we recommend that it compete low-training billets before high-training and instructor billets.
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