Research for Research Contributions

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August 1, 1974
Three hundred eighty conflicts initiated during the years 1946-1964 are analysed. The analysis of recent conflicts has three major advantages: (1) to confirm or counter assumptions about limited warfare situations in the period 1946-1964 to provide greater validity in predicting such situations in the future; (2) to identify the major variables involved in the various kinds of recent conflicts so that these variables will be used appropriately in the analysis of future conflicts of a similar type; and (3) to provide a data base from which important implications about the nature of recent conflicts may be derived so that effective processes of deterrence and control may be perceived for future application.
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August 1, 1974
Data on Navy, Marine Corps, and Army officers who were retired because of disability are investigated to enable inferences regarding the benefits and costs of alternative periodic health examination strategies. The periodic health screening program is treated on one level as a production function whose output is the ability of the program to detect illness and whose inputs are the frequency of the examinations and the scope of an examination. The parameters of this function are estimated. Then, at a second level, the respective effects of variations in age and variations in the ability of the periodic health screening program to detect illness, upon the rate of serious morbidity in the population, are examined. While the cost differences are substantial between a frequent, thorough program and one with examinations of low frequency and scope, the differences in serious morbidity between the two extremes appear to be negligible for all age groups studied (ages 24 through 48).
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August 1, 1974
This guide presents a detailed description of the computer programs constituting the Naval Aircraft Rework Facility (NARF) Workload Planning and Budgeting Model. As the guide is intended for use by programmers in making detailed changes to program coding, coding receives special attention in the form of lines-by-lines description of main program listings. A general description of each program, the program listings, and flow charts are included. The description of the model is contained in the Center for Naval Analyses' INS Study 38, Naval Aircraft Rework Facility Study. A discussion of the model's uses is contained in CNA Research Contribution 212, the User's Guide to the NARF Workload Planning and Budgeting Model.
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August 1, 1974
The roles of time and money cost in the demand for air travel are analyzed. The first step is to construct the theory of consumer demand under a time constraint and to deduce its theorems. These theorems are applied to air travel through use of a total price demand function. This analysis considers the effects for fare, trip time, airport delay, schedule frequency, trip distance, traveler's wage rates, and non-wage income on the demand for air travel. Many results concerning elasticities are obtained, including a necessary relationship between the time, price, and total price elasticities of demand. Tests of the theorems are performed, the various elasticities are estimates, and the relationship between the elasticities required by the theory is used to obtain an estimate of the value of time in air travel.
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August 1, 1974
Methodologies for estimating true volunteers were evaluated using draft lottery data. An appropriate method was identified for predicting the supply of first-term enlistees in a draft-free environment.
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August 1, 1974
The relationships between aircraft inputs (airplanes, spare parts, men, etc.) and the outputs of sorties or aircraft ready hours can be approximated reasonably well by a production function type model. It is the initial intent of this research effort to construct and evaluate such an aircraft carrier production function. This model will then permit defense managers to have better understanding of the actual input-output process of operating sea-based tactical aircraft.
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August 1, 1974
Gun system operation is represented as a first-order MARKOV process, and an optimum linear filter is derived for closed-loop control of mean square error. Potential improvement is then estimated by contrasting the variance in performance and the auto-correlation for the open-loop system with that for the optimum linearly corrected process.
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July 1, 1974
In light of subsequent implementation by the executive branch and interpretation by the judicial branch, this research contribution examines the influence upon Naval operations of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 and of existing and pending federal air, water, and noise legislation. In so doing, this paper suggests procedures which will better insure that the letter and the spirit of such legislation are manifested throughout the Navy in decisions concerning environmental matters.
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July 1, 1974
Data from a 1969 CINCLANTFLT study based on a questionaire is subjected to regression analysis to determine whether shipboard habitability and time in homeport affect retention. Tentative results suggest that they do. A methodology that makes use of the questionaire responses is proposed to determine the optimal allocation of funds among habitability improvements. Further study is recommended, including a new questionaire and survey.
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July 1, 1974
A comprehensive data base is presented with detailed information on the manner in which airspace is used by Navy and Marine Corps operational squadrons. It is based on a nationwide survey conducted in February and March, 1970. The conduct of the survey is described, and examples of the application of selected data are given. Statistical data is assembled on the use of runways, the Positive Control Area, Warning Areas, Restricted Areas, and related aspects of Naval flight activity with emphasis on the interaction between operational flight training and the National Airspace System.
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