Research for Research Contributions

A methodology is developed for projecting the size of the U.S.-flag tanker fleet over the next 25 years. Such projections are needed to assess whether the Ready Reserve Force can be an economical and effective program for maintaining adequate tanker tonnage to support both military operations and essential economic activity. Domestic crude oil and refined product flows are modeled, and a scheme is developed to allocate the flows between tankers, barges, and pipelines. Relationships are specified to convert the volumes of oil allocated to tankers into tanker tonnage requirements and into requirements for numbers of tankers of various sizes.

In this paper, a methodology is described and applied for evaluating the effects of individual government programs on aggregate private-sector productivity. Methodological development was needed to allow use of data from the existing professional literature. Earlier studies estimated the effects of the programs on price and quantity. CNA's contribution was to develop methods for translating these price and quantity effects into productivity estimates. The productivity effects of the following programs, all administered by the Department of Labor, were examined: training programs such as CETA and MDTA, minimum-wage laws, the Davis-Bacon Act, unemployment insurance, and OSHA and MSHA legislation on occupational safety.

This research contribution analyzes the problem of ordnance acquisition when the targets to be attacked are uncertain. It introduces the use of a utility function to evaluate the outcome of the attack process. Two models of the attack process are considered: The first assumes that the random target vector is attacked simultaneously with the available weapons. The second is a Sequential-Attack Model (SEAM) in which targets appear one at a time and the attack process continues as long as the current target can be attacked. The expected utility for a mix of weapons for the Simultaneous-Attack Model (SIAM) is computed as the weighted average of the expected utility of the mix of weapons against each target vector. The expected value for the SEAM is estimated by using a simulation of the attack process. It is argued that older methods of selecting weapons are biased towards special-purpose weapons and that the SIAM and SEAM models are not subjected to this deficiency. Furthermore, in spite of being the more complicated model, the SEAM approach appears more realistic in the way that it models that attack process. An operational example is used to illustrate the problem and the SEAM approach.

The rate of productivity growth in the U.S. economy and the extent and effects of government regulation have been matters of great concern in recent years. This study is an empirical investigation of the effect of regulation on productivity in the auto and steel industries during the period 1958-1980. The first step in the study was to develop numerical measures of regulation. These measures were then employed in two empirical models. In the single-equation model, the level or rate of growth of productivity was estimated as a function of output, technology, regulation, and other variables. In the multiequation model, cost and input cost shares were jointly estimated as a function of input prices, output, technology, and regulation. The estimated effect of regulation on productivity varied, depending on the model and the measure of regulation used. For example, the multiequation model indicated a positive effect of regulation on productivity in the steel industry. For the auto industry, however, it indicated that regulation generally had the expected negative effect on productivity. Over the period 1973-1980, regulation was estimated to have lowered the annual rate of productivity growth in the auto industry by 0.55 to 2.00 percentage points, depending on the measures of output and regulation. For Additional Information See 02 052701 00.