Research for Requirements

This study, sponsored by Commander, US Naval Forces Central Command, identifies the future missions, concepts of operations, and capability requirements for the Iraqi Navy, and recommends a force structure for 2015 and beyond. We found that the Iraqi Navy will need two patrol boats; six fast, armed shallow-draft boats; three harbor patrol craft; three armed helicopters; coastal artillery; fixed radar; automatic identification systems; forward-looking infrared equipment; specialized units for diving, mine countermeasures, and explosive ordnance disposal; and equipment to provide flexible and secure command, control, and communications. This study was well received by the sponsor and the Iraqi Navy, and the Iraqi Minister of Defense has incorporated our recommendations into the navy’s force structure plan for 2008-2020.

There is concern that requirements for the Navy’s military manpower are being developed with insufficient attention to cost. In this sense, today’s requirements may be called “fiscally uninformed.” While today’s requirements may be sufficient to accomplish the mission, it is important that they accomplish the mission at lowest cost. In this study, we describe the current manpower requirements determination process, identify why requirements are not fiscally informed, and develop ideas for more market-based, cost-informed requirements determination. We find some evidence that supports expectations of how cost incentives affect activities’ decisions. Military manpower requirements would become more fiscally informed if the people making the decisions about requirements and authorizations faced the same resource tradeoffs as the Navy. We propose two general variants of more market-based processes for military manpower requirements. In each process, end users pay for the manpower they use, and have greater financial fungibility, or the ability to exchange programmed funds in one appropriation for another. An initial step toward fiscally informed requirements would be to make prices (or programming rates) more granular by manpower type. Flexible-price mechanisms, such as auctions, would result in better prices but may be more difficult to implement.

The study examines the manpower system for unrestricted officers, documenting the degree to which officer inventories did not match requirements and identifying options for addressing shortfalls. The authors examine the FY92-FY05 period to identify systematic shortages by primary military occupational specialty (PMOS) and analyze promotion rates by PMOS to see if promotion rates differ.

Congressional mandate requires DoD to review its forces, resources, and programs every 4 years. As part of this Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, Personnel & Readiness requested an overview paper on how DoD can improve military manpower management. Given increasing personnel costs and budgetary pressures to control spending, cost-effective manpower management has taken on additional importance. We conclude that the military compensation package could be better aligned with what Servicemembers value. In particular, the value of the military retirement package to personnel is not commensurate with its significant cost to DoD. Furthermore, current rotation policies can significantly detract from military service; programs that allow personnel choice in their assignments would lower cost and improve the value of the overall compensation package. On the demand side, we conclude that current processes increase requirements. Rotation policies increase turnover and directly reduce performance. Furthermore, units and commands do not have visibility into the compensation or full cost of military personnel. Finally, DoD faces several constraints that result in decisions unrelated to the military mission. More discretion in using military personnel funds and relaxing the endstrength constraint would improve the cost-effectiveness of military manpower management.