Research for Regression Analysis

Examines ways of expanding the Navy manpower pool by estimating the effects of Navy policy and recruiting resources on the available supply of manpower.

This report examines the validity of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) forms 6 and 7. Validity in this analysis is the correlation between ASVAB test scores and subsequent performance in military training courses. Recruits are assigned to specific military training based, in part, on their scores on subgroups of tests (aptitude composites) contained in the ASVAB. We determined the most appropriate aptitude composite, and minimum acceptable score on that composite, for assignment to each training course. ASVAB forms 6 and 7 (the source of test score data for this analyses) are compared with the recently introduced ASVAB forms 8, 9, and 10. Based on this comparison we consider the results of our validity analyses of ASVAB forms 6 and 7 to be applicable for recruit assignment using ASVAB forms 8, 9, and 10.

Survival curves for NPS male recruits were estimated through eight years of service using the FY 1979 cross-sectional data base. Separate analyses were performed for Class A school attendees and non-A school attendees, holding constant the effects of age, educational level, and mental group. Mean survival times (the areas under the survival curves) were calculated for each recruit profile. A cost-benefit analysis was then performed on the mean survival times calculated over four years of service to determine optimal qualifying scores for enlistment.

The effects on the number of Navy enlistments of recruiters, their distribution, and their quotas are investigated. Published census data on the population and on the demographic and economic characteristics of Navy Recruiting Districts, and regression analysis, are used to control for differences in enlistment potential across districts. Results for CY 1973 and FY 1975 are compared. Improvements to the quota-setting process are considered.