Research for Regression Analysis

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Predicting 21-Month Completion in the Marine Corps Using the Adaptability Screening Profile
March 1, 1990
An Adaptability Screening Profile has been developed for possible use in selecting applicants who are likely to complete their service obligations. Marine Corps data on completing 21 months are available on one part of the Profile. These data are analyzed to predict probability of 21-month completion from Profile score and educational tier.
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Statistical Methods for Improving the Assessment of Recruiting Market Conditions
June 1, 1988
This research memorandum quantifies historical seasonal patterns in recruiting statistics and shows them to have evolved over time. Decline in seasonal variation dates from 1978 to 1980 for various measures of recruiting flows. Deseasonalized versions of these recruiting statistics are produced for use in econometric time-series models. The results provide a benchmark for gauging the seasonal component of Navy recruiting goals and achievements.
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Estimating Reliabilities of CAT-ASVAB Subtests
January 1, 1988
An experimental computerized adaptive testing (CAT) version of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) has been developed and administered, and a new version is under preparation. It is important that each CAT-ASVAB subtest be at least as reliable as its paper-pencil counterpart. This report presents two methods for estimating subtest reliabilities of the CAT version of the ASVAB, and illustrates them using data from the experimental version. These methods can be used with later versions.
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The Effect of EM Manning on the Material Condition of the Electrical Distribution System
November 1, 1987
The factors that affect the material condition of a ship's Electrical Distribution System (EDS) are investigated in this research memorandum. Deficiencies discovered by the Naval Board of Inspection and Survey (INSURV) are used as a proxy for the material condition of the EDS. Special attention is paid to the effect of ship age, ship size, and Electrician's Mate manning.
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Modeling Spikes in Hazard Rates
October 1, 1987
The probability of survival can be estimated using a parametric survival model in which a single regression equation is used to summarize the data. For some data, the hazard rate at particular intervals of time differs markedly from the rest of the hazard function. This sharp rise in the hazard rate violates the requirements of the common parametric survival models, and indicates that some alternative modeling approach should be considered. This research contribution outlines a methodology for estimating parametric survival models given non-smooth survival data. As an example of this methodology the procedure is used to estimate the survival pattern of Marine Corps Selected Reservists.
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Modeling Failures of Intermittently Used Machines
July 1, 1987
Many machines are used intermittently, that is, repeatedly turned on and off during normal operation. Eventually the machine fails. This research memorandum presents methodology for analyzing failures of machines that are repeatedly turned on and off. Because a machine can fail both when it is on and off, different parametric models for failure are used for each of these periods. An important issue addressed for such machines is how the intermittent use itself affects failure. Because the models can predict the chance of failure under different usage patterns, less harmful usage patterns can be recommended. As an example, the models are applied to a radar system, and both the immediate and cumulative effects of on-off cycling are demonstrated.
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Some Determinants of Contract Prices in Defense Procurement
November 1, 1986
The results of exploratory research on models and techniques used in estimating the effects of competition as well as several other variables in weapon system production contract prices are reported. The purpose of this effort was to examine the use of pooled cross-section, time-series data in modeling the acquisition program and its environment. The approach is not tied specifically to competitive acquisitions; however, the primary aim of the research was to examine models used to estimate the effects of competition.
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Towards Justifying Enlistment Standards: Linking Input Characteristics to Job Performance
October 1, 1986
The Job Performance Measurement Project has broken new ground by embarking on the large-scale development and administration of hands-on job performance tests. In the next stage, this pioneering effort can go even futher in helping to rationalize the selection and classification process by evaluating the cost-effectiveness of enlistment standards. This paper outlines a process for such an evaluation.
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An Analysis of Marine Corps Enlisted Dependency Rates
September 1, 1986
A model for predicting Marine enlisted dependency rates by pay grade is developed in this memorandum. It estimates the effects of economic and demographic factors and provides monthly forecasts through fiscal year 1990.
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The Translation of Supervisory Ratings into Measurements of Relative Value
July 1, 1986
The goal of this study was to develop a procedure for determining the magnitude of the performance differences between different categories of enlisted personnel. The professional judgement of Marine Corps officers is used as the basis for building a scale that translates the current performance evaluation system into a measure of an individual's relative value to the service.
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