Research for Regression Analysis

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Do Crisis Response Operations Affect Political and Economic Stability?
May 1, 2003
This study analyzes the relationships between military crisis response operations, political stability and economic stability. The study uses a combination of case studies and cross-country regression analysis to examine whether different regions of the world or countries at different levels of economic development react in different ways to military crisis response operations. We found several differences, depending on the length of the operation. Short operations have a positive effect on political stability for several months after completion of the operation, particularly in Africa and low-income countries, though they do not appear to affect economic stability. Longer operations can affect both political and economic stability over the long term, but the extent of the effect is unclear. This analysis provides quantitative evidence that crisis response operations do affect future political and economic stability. Given the nature of the data, it is difficult to know the exact magnitude of these effects, but it appears that there is some kind of linkage between crisis response operations and political and economic stability.
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Do Crisis Response Operations Affect Political and Economic Stability?
May 1, 2003
This study analyzes the relationships between military crisis response operations, political stability and economic stability. The study uses a combination of case studies and cross-country regression analysis to examine whether different regions of the world or countries at different levels of economic development react in different ways to military crisis response operations. We found several differences, depending on the length of the operation. Short operations have a positive effect on political stability for several months after completion of the operation, particularly in Africa and low-income countries, though they do not appear to affect economic stability. Longer operations can affect both political and economic stability over the long term, but the extent of the effect is unclear. This analysis provides quantitative evidence that crisis response operations do affect future political and economic stability. Given the nature of the data, it is difficult to know the exact magnitude of these effects, but it appears that there is some kind of linkage between crisis response operations and political and economic stability.
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Statistical Methods for Learning Curves and Cost Analysis
March 1, 2003
Abstract:D6870 This monograph examines the statistical methods that have been used to estimate the learning-rate parameter in learning curves, as well as the methods used to calibrate cost-estimating relationships (CERs). We argue that some widely-used methods, such as lot-midpoint iteration, do not have either a strong mathematical or statistical justification. The properties of other, general-purpose methods, such as non-linear least squares and iteratively reweighted least squares, are well established in the statistics literature. These latter methods can be applied to learning curve and CER estimation, and possess stronger properties than the heuristic methods traditionally applied by cost analysts.
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Women at Sea: Unplanned Losses and Accession Planning
March 1, 1999
The Deputy of Chief of Naval Operations for Manpower and Personnel asked CNA to study various issues related to maintaining fleet readiness while expanding the role of women in the operating forces. First, we studied the pattern of losses of personnel from ships by gender and explored policies aimed at reducing them. Second, we updated a CNA planning model that links women's accession plans, bunk plans, and a variety of personnel policy parameters. Recommendations include maintaining a presence of female Chief Petty Officers of a least 5 percent of the female crew in order to reduce the level of unplanned losses of junior women, and increasing A-School proportion of female accessions in order to improve retention of female personnel.
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Comparisons of Enlisted and Civilian Pay
August 1, 1998
The Personnel Readiness Division of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (J1) asked CNA to examine the earnings of enlisted personnel and to compare them with the earnings of similar people in the civilian labor market. We used multiple regression to estimate civilian earnings of non-college-graduates and used these models to predict the earnings potential of enlisted military personnel. We found that earnings in the civilian and military sectors are similar and that both fell, when adjusted for inflation, between 1992 and 1996 (the year for which the most recent civilian data were available).
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Effectiveness of the Voluntary Education Program
April 1, 1998
This paper examines the effectiveness of Voluntary Education (VOLED) Program, which provides off-duty educational opportunities integrating a variety of continuing education programs to Sailors seeking to enhance their professional and personal growth. VOLED comprises three major instructional elements: Tuition Assistance, the Program for Afloat College Education (PACE) and the Academic Skills Learning Centers (ASLCs). The analyses finds that college education through VOLED improves promotion prospects, helps Sailors retake the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) to qualify for Navy ratings for which they were not eligible, has a significant positive impact on retention, and that all elements are cost-effective. The report recommends maintaining full support for VOLED and accelerating academic skills investments. It also recommends modifying the ASLC contract to promote greater participation and establishing an academic transcript system. Finally, it recommends encouraging a more supportive command climate and limiting the enrollment of E1s and E2s.
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Housing Benefits: Baseline Analysis
April 1, 1997
To improve the quality of life of service members and increase overall efficiency, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Installations and Facilities asked CNA to examine Department of the Navy (DON) housing processes, identify options and alternatives to the current system, and evaluate these options. In this paper, we present our analysis of current DON housing practices. Its purpose is to describe the current state of housing benefits, including costs, conditions, processes, and value to the service members. These descriptions will serve as a baseline for comparison with proposed alternatives to the current housing system. This paper has five parts. In the first, we give a short overview of current DON housing benefits and summarize the results of the study. In the three sections that follow, we discuss current family housing, bachelor housing, and off-base allowances. In the last section, we list our conclusions.
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Effects of Sea Duty and Advancement on First-Term Retention
June 1, 1993
As the Navy shrinks, it is likely that the ratio of sea duty to shore duty will rise and advancement opportunities will fall for enlisted personnel. This research memorandum investigates the relationships of sea duty, advancement, and reenlistment at the end of the first term. We explore these relationships with a variety of statistical models while controlling for economic variables, personal characteristics, fiscal year, and rating group. With regard to sea duty, we support the evidence found in other studies: sea duty has a negative but small effect on retention for first-term sailors. For advancement, we are unable to separate an advancement effect independent of such variables as pay and ability. We do not conclude that advancement does not effect retention -- rather that pay and ability, which are closely linked to advancement, capture the main impact of advancement on retention.
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Factor Structure and Incremental Validity of the Enhanced Computer-Administered Tests
July 1, 1992
The Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB), used to select and classify enlisted personnel, is highly correlated to math and verbal content areas. New computerized predictor tests that are sensitive to traits not measured by the current ASVAB subtests may be able to improve predictive validity. This research memorandum investigates the potential of one such group of tests, the Enhanced Computer-Administered Tests, to predict performance in the mechanical maintenance specialties.
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Comparison of Three Procedures for Smoothing Score Distributions
June 1, 1991
Distributions of test scores need to be smoothed in equating and/or norming. Popular parametric smoothing procedures are based on beta-binomial and log-linear models. A new approach has been developed using polynomials of the beta-binomial cumulative distribution function. The same approach was also applied to extend the beta-binomial family to more than four parameters. These methods were compared using cross-validation in two examinee samples who took the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. Results show that the log-linear and extended beta-binomial families fit the data about equally well.
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