Research for Recruits

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Manpower Cost and Attainability in the Navy's Selected Reserve: The SELRES Force Structure Model
May 1, 1986
This research contribution reports on the development of the Selected Reserves (SELRES) Force Structure Model, a new tool used to analyze manpower inventories and costs in the Navy Selected Reserve. For a given set of manpower requirements, the model projects a best obtainable manpower inventory by 69 rating groups and two pay-grade groups. By choosing from among the different mixes of accession programs that could produce this inventory, the model then finds the least-cost method of achieving it.
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Evaluation of Alternative Compositions of the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT)
May 1, 1986
This paper evaluates seventeen ASVAB composites that were proposed as alternatives to replace the current AFQT. The alternatives are evaluated primarily on the basis of their predictive validity and their effects on the applicant pool.
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Evaluation of the Targeted Enlistment Bonus (TEB) for Nuclear Field Recruits - October 1985 Through February 1986
April 1, 1986
This Research Memorandum contains the first of three evaluations of the Targeted Enlistment Bonus (TEB) for Nuclear Field (NF) recruits. The TEB differs from the standard enlistment bonus by varying the bonus amounts according to the season a recruit begins active duty. FY 1986 NF recruits are compared to those of previous fiscal years in terms of the timing of accessions and enlistment contracts, performance on military entrance examinations, and age.
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Attrition From Navy Enlistment Contracts
January 1, 1986
This research memorandum reports on the construction of an individual-level data set for Navy enlistment contracts for FY83 and FY84. It discusses the problems associated with these data and formalizes a contract attrition model, which is then estimated in a logistic framework.
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Summary Report: Manning the 600-Ship Navy
December 1, 1985
A series of projects designed to improve the Navy's ability to set manpower requirements and to develop cost-effective compensation policies to fill these requirements is summarized. The analyses included several efforts to improve the methodology used to define manpower requirements. A computer model was designed to help in the analysis of the impact of changes in the size of the fleet on requirements at the individual billet level. Development of methodologies to assess the potential for civilian substitution and to define test score and educational requirements for accessions was also completed. The impact of personal characteristics and Navy training on the performance of enlisted personnel was the subject of two separate research efforts. Finally, the effects of compensation policy on high-quality personnel and of sea pay on hard-to-fill sea-intensive billets were the subjects of two studies of retention behavior.
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The History and Effectiveness of the Enlistment Bonus Program for Procuring Nuclear-Field Personnel
October 1, 1985
Enlistment bonuses are monetary incentives promised to potential recruits to induce them to sign contracts to join the Navy. The bonuses, paid upon successful completion of class A schools, have been awarded in military skill areas characterized by inadequate volunteer levels. This memorandum describes how the Navy has used enlistment bonuses. Additionally, it provides estimates of the efficacy of enlistment bonuses for procuring recruits for the nuclear field.
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Establishing the Upper-Mental-Group Goal
August 1, 1985
The purpose of the Upper-Mental-Group (UMG) requirement in Navy recruiting is discussed. A FORTRAN model that simulates the recruiting process and calculates the optimum UGM requirement is described. Findings for FY86 are presented. Follow-up to type 27 850002.00
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A Model for Drug Testing
August 1, 1985
To make a drug-testing program successful and to minimize the cost of the program, the minimum number of tests that must be given in a specified period to identify a fixed percentage of drug users must be determined. This memorandum presents a Markov model that can be used to determine the number of tests that should be given. In addition, three applications of the model, showing how it can be used to analyze the drug-user population, are presented.
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A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF THE JOBS PROGRAM
April 1, 1984
This study performs a cost-benefit analysis of the Job-Oriented Basic Skills (JOBS) remedial training program. The baseline case against which it is compared is the normal progression of 'A'-school-qualified recruits into the fleet. Three measures of cost effectiveness are employed; in each case the two programs achieve similar results for a similar cost. It is recommended that the JOBS program be continued as a contingency in the event that certain ratings experience shortfalls of high-quality personnel in the future.
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Retention And Career Force Quality
March 1, 1984
Previous studies have examined the factors that influence first-term retention. This analysis expands on prior work to investigate the impact of these factors on retention and the quality of personnel retained. We find that the aggregate pay elasticity is approximately 2 (which is similar to that found in earlier analyses), but that this result masks substantial differences in the pay responsiveness of different personnel. Upper mental group personnel displayed a pay elasticity in excess of 3, whereas personnel in the lower groups had an elasticity of approximately 1. Thus, pay increases improve the quality of the career force as well as increasing the number of personnel retained. Conversely, if Navy pay lags behind civilian earnings, the decline in retention is compounded by a decrease in quality. Upper mental group personnel seemed to be more sensitive to changes in the civilian unemployment rate as well. There is a significant relationship between advancement and retention. The effect is stronger than that expected from the related pay increase. It seems to indicate that advancement can be an effective and selective retention tool.
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