Research for Recruiting

This paper analyzes the effects on Navy high school graduate enlistments of various factors, includng recruiters, advertising, unemployment rates, and others.

This analysis examines the mathematical relations between the performance of first-term Marines and their test scores and selected personal characteristics. The objective is to predict performance when only certain test scores and personal characteristics are known (i.e., at time of application for enlistment). A step-wise linear multiple regression process is used to identify the variables which best predict performance. Measures of performance include early attrition, desertion, early promotion, and rank achieved. A procedure for expressing the results in terms of the (new) ASVAB preenlistment test is provided, and a method for application of these results to Marine Corps enlistment screening is presented.

The effects on the number of Navy enlistments of recruiters, their distribution, and their quotas are investigated. Published census data on the population and on the demographic and economic characteristics of Navy Recruiting Districts, and regression analysis, are used to control for differences in enlistment potential across districts. Results for CY 1973 and FY 1975 are compared. Improvements to the quota-setting process are considered.

This paper constructs a steady state linear programming model that solves for the optimal number of accessions from the nine sources for line officers. Costs are minimized subject to the constraint that, for each Navy occupation, the required number of officers at each rank is met. The inputs to the model include the present value of costs, the initial distribution of officers across occupations, retention, and promotion success.