Research for R&D

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Future Naval Cooperation With Latin America: Program Descriptions and Assessment
September 1, 1994
In response to a request from the Commander in Chief, U.S. Atlantic Fleet (CINCLANTFLT), the Center for Naval Analyses conducted a study of the mid- and long-range importance of Latin America in U.S. Navy strategic planning, especially that of and in relation to CINCLANTFLT. The study considered the full range of hemisphere navy-to-navy relations and examined the modalities and value of activities to both the U.S. Navy and to Latin American navies. It also examined future developments for Latin American navies in light of the changing international security environment and the roles that Latin American can play. This research memorandum is one of a series of documents prepared in response to CINCLANTFLT's request. It contains the detailed analytical data supporting the study's final report. It is an extensive catalog of U.S. Navy program and dealings with Latin America and Latin Americans. In-depth analyses and extensive interview data permitted us to evaluate the scope and impact of programs and to assess their contribution to national security goals. The Navy program are divided into the following categories: (1) Political-military interaction; (2) Facility access in Latin America; (3) Exercises and other operations; (4) Operational exchanges; (5) Professional military-education programs; (6) U.S. Marine Corps activities; (7) Interoperability; (8) Security assistance; (9) Research and development; and (10) Miscellaneous.
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The Shipbuilding Game: A Summary Report
June 1, 1994
Gaming is a tool that the military has used with great success to gain insights into the feasibility of alternative strategies or tactics before actually putting one into practice. Although gaming does not provide real answers, it can provide insights into strategic 'what if' questions. The validity of the insights gained is largely a function of the reality designed into the game and the willingness of the players to immerse themselves in the play. The Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) asked CNA to design a game based on a business sector undergoing change in response to the defense drawdown. The shipbuilding industry was chosen because (1) it is a critical business sector for U.S. economic and military security, (2) it is facing major near-term strategic and tactical decisions that will define its future, and (3) it could be gamed with a high degree of realism. The purpose of the game was to bring together important leaders from government and industry to exchange information and gain insights. Specifically, we wanted to help industry and government leaders answer the following questions: (a) How can the U.S. shipbuilding industry compete in the global market? and (b) What technologies enhance or promote U.S. competitiveness in this market? The game was designed with these objectives in mind. This research memorandum describes the game design and the game play, and provides a summary of the panel discussions, the shipyard play, and the lessons learned.
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The Future Russian Navy: Interests of the Military
May 1, 1993
Despite current political and socio-economic uncertainties, the Russian leaders continue to develop new concepts regarding the role and capabilities of the future Russian Navy. This study examines three likely parameters of future Russian naval development: current implementation of the 'reasonable sufficiency' concept, the Russian image of future war, and Russia's new military doctrine. On both the nuclear and conventional levels, the application of 'reasonable sufficiency' to future naval development continues to generate a significant degree of civil-military divergence. On the other hand, a strong civil-military consensus underlies Russian views on the role of naval forces in future war. Like their Soviet predecessors, Russian military and civilian experts view Operation Desert Storm as the paradigm of future war in strategy, operational art, and tactics. Finally, Russia's new military doctrine and surrounding discussions provide evidence regarding Russia's 'vital' national interests, threats to these interests, and the role of the Russian Navy in Russian national security policy.
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Integration of Navy R&D Program Data: Are There 'Families' of R&D Profiles
July 1, 1990
This paper, undertaken as part of CNA's Quo Vadis II project, examines alternative statistical models for the cumulative distribution of cost and time of Navy Research and Development (R&D) projects.
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The Dynamic Structure of Navy Research and Development Budgets: A Time-Series Analysis
June 1, 1990
This paper investigates the dynamic nature of the Navy's Research and Development (R&D) budget by examining the Navy's budget in the aggregate and by functional activity (i.e., manpower, operation and maintenance, procurement, and research and development). Qualitative conclusions about trends in each functional area are made using constant-dollar plots for the period 1955-88. The percentage of the aggregate Department of the Navy (DON) budget that is allotted to R&D has been remarkably consistent at 10 percent over the last 30 years. A forecast for the R&D budget percentage is made for the next 5 years using statistical techniques. Thus, independent forecasts of the aggregate DON budget can be used to generate alternative R&D budget forecasts.
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Lessons Learned from the MIFASS Development
December 1, 1987
The Marine Integrated Fire and Air Support System (MIFASS) was in development for many years before the Commandant terminated the program in May 1987. This research memorandum discusses the problems that are apparent from the MIFASS program and describes some recommended changes intended to prevent their recurrence in subsequent efforts.
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Current Cost Analysis Practice in the Navy - Estimating the Effects of Competition
April 1, 1987
An evaluation of current Navy practices for assessing the cost effects of production competition in programs using dual production sources is presented. Weapon system cost analysis practices are presented first as a baseline, followed by discussion of particular methods used when two production sources are expected. The scope of the evaluation was limited to cost analysis practices at the headquarters level in the three hardware systems commands and at what is now the Naval Center for Cost Analysis.
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Naval Manpower Research in the 1980's
July 1, 1983
A report of a two day conference at the Center for Naval Analyses, designed to suggest promising lines of research to help the Navy cope with the manpower problems of the mid-to-late 1980s.
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Cost-Effectiveness of Potential Federal Policies Affecting Research & Development Expenditures in the Auto, Steel and Food Industries
February 1, 1981

This paper analyzes two specifc policies for affecting Research and Development (R&D) expenditures: (1) changes in the level of federally financed R&D expenditures, and (2) changes in the cost of private R&D through income tax credits.

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The Center for Naval Analyses
February 1, 1981

This paper provides an overview of the creation and history of the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA). The report also discusses CNA's relationship with the Navy and research methods employed at CNA.

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