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Implications of Global Economics Forces for Political Instability in Selected Third World Countries
July 1, 1985
This study assesses the economic forces which are most likely to become sources of political instability in developing countries. Emphasis is given to those countries in which the U.S. has important national security interests, the protection of which could potentially require military intervention. Supersedes Working Paper 85-1242 This paper is cleared for public release, but it is to have no distribution per Warren Rodgers.
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Readiness or Resources: Which Comes First?
March 1, 1985
This paper concerns a statistical problem in estimating relationships between resources and readiness. Specifically, it addresses the question, which term resources or readiness, is the discretionary, or causal variable, and which is the determined, or effect variable. This issue is discussed in the context of the Naval shore establishment.
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A Possible Change in Soviet Views on the Prospects for Anti-Submarine Warfare
January 1, 1985
Provides an overview of an apparent shift in Soviet views on the future potential for combating submarines.
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Logit Specification Tests Using Grouped Data
January 1, 1985
Four logit specification tests for the case of grouped data have been developed. The first test compares the covariance matrix of the regression residuals to the matrix expected under the logit model. The second and third tests directly address the zero restrictions and cross-equation equality restrictions associated with the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) property. The fourth test embeds the logit model within a grouped data version of the nested logit model, which does not possess the IIA property. The logit model was marginally rejected in one data set, and strongly rejected in the other two data sets.
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The Use of Flight Simulators in Measuring and Improving Training Effectiveness
January 1, 1985
This paper studies the value of aircraft simulators as measures of training readiness. Simulator evaluations are analyzed for reserve enlisted crewmen on Navy patrol aircraft. Part-time reservists are found to have very little skill loss over time and perform as well as their full-time counterparts. Experience in the simulator produces substantial increases in subsequent flights and appears to be a useful measures of readiness and a valuable training experience.
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Costs and Benefits of Training and Experience
January 1, 1985
On-the-job training continues throughout the careers of enlisted men in the Navy. This kind of experience-induced training entails no formal training costs, but it requires payment of higher wages and benefits due more senior individuals. This paper examines where the balance is between the costs and benefits of such training.
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The Relationship Between Material Failures and Flight Hours: Statistical Considerations
January 1, 1985
This paper attempts to clarify the relationships among the following four hypotheses: (1) the number of material failures across intervals of calendar time containing equal accumulated flight hours follows a Poisson distribution; (2) the number of elapsed flight hours between successive independent material failures follows an expotential distribution; (3) the expected number of monthly material failures is exactly proportional to monthly flight hours; and (4) the observed number of monthly material failures is strongly correlated with monthly flight hours.
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Optempo and Training Effectiveness
December 1, 1984
This paper presents the association between nondeployed activities and training readiness.
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An Evaluation of The Effectiveness of Classroom and On-the-Job Training
December 1, 1984
This paper examines the effectiveness of training for U.S. Naval personnel, using data from the Enlisted Utilization Survey and from Navy administrative records. Using these sources the productivity of typical first-term Naval enlistees in 12 major occupational specialties, at four points in time was assessed. Also cost estimates for the two training modes was constructed.
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MARE MOSSO: The Mediterranean Theater
November 1, 1984
This paper assesses the strategic perspective from the Mediterranean in the mid-eighties in light of the changing political and military situation in the Mediterranean considered per se and relative to other regions.
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