Research for PP

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February 1, 1991
This professional paper evaluates ship material condition on the basis of mission-degrading casualty reports. Tobit models estimate the effect on ship material readiness of such resource variables as manning, crew stability, months since last overhaul, steaming hours, and length of time commanding officer has had ship command. Identical models are used for KNOX, SPRUANCE, and ADAMS ship classes. For all three classes, the most important influences are related to manning.
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January 1, 1991
This paper discusses opposing veiwpoints on Soviet military policy in Afghanistan. Principal areas of discussion include: (1) the decision-making behind the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; (2) the impact of the Afghan war and Soviet attitudes toward their Afghan veterans; (3) the current status of the Soviet military; and (4) the future role of the Soviet military.
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August 1, 1990
The purpose of this paper is to present a rationale for evaluating minimum qualifiying standards that incorporate policy guidance and directives together with data from the Job Performance Measurement (JPM) project. First, policy guidance and directives are discussed and defined more precisely for use in quantitative analyses. The policy statements are then applied to results from the JPM project to compute a minimum qualifying aptitude score for the infantry occupational field.
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July 1, 1990
Presents briefing slides and accompanying text on the changing nuclear threat and the assumptions and methodology used for a scenario analysis. Conditions under which U.S. leaders would seriously consider use of military force to deal with Third World nuclear crises and military options of the U.S. are considered. Annexes include threat methodology and a description of scenarios.
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April 1, 1990
In linear programming, the goal is to solve for an M-dimensional vector, x, that minimizes (or maximizes) a linear 'cost' function, and which satisfies certain linear constraints. This paper concentrates specifically on these linear constraints, provides techniques for simplifying the linear programming problem by eliminating unneeded constraints, and presents a technique for identifying and eliminating redundant constraints.
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March 1, 1990
This paper presents a mathematical model for two purposes. First, it extends the theoretical analysis of annual contracting to the more general case of uncertainty as to the magnitude of year-two procurement, as opposed simply to its cancellation. The second is to assign parameter values having at least some empirical grounding to the Utgoff-Thaler model, thereby providing a basis for assessing quantitatively the consequences of the theoretical results for both annual and multiyear contracting.
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November 1, 1989
This paper examines three aspects of the Marine Corps validation research effort that may have implications for Marine Corps manpower issues. They are: validity of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) in the prediction of job performance, differential validity of ASVAB aptitude composites in the prediction of job performance across infantry occupational specialties, and, interaction of aptitude and experience in the prediction of job performance.
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November 1, 1989
This paper describes the methodology used by the Center for Naval Analyses to develop a Monte Carlo missile simulation that computes probabilities of target acquisition and distributions of missile arrival times. The simulation accounts for numerous missile and target uncertainties. Coordinated strikes are simulated by modeling multiple missiles from multiple launch points firing on a group of targets. Tactical applications of the simulation required that it be somputationally efficient. This led to an event-driven time advancement scheme.
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November 1, 1989
The Soviet Union might choose to operate a small number of nuclear-powered attack submarines in U.S. coastal waters during a war with the United States. The effects of such operations on U.S. public opinion could require the U.S. Navy to redeploy Navy assets away from forward operations to augment coastal defenses. During past conflicts, American military forces have, in fact, been diverted from other missions precisely to counter perceived threats to the Continental United States (CONUS). In some instances, the diversion was driven less by a public outcry for reassuring defensive measures. This paper examines the U.S. experience with threats to CONUS or coastal waters during four wars (the Civil War, the Spanish-American War, World War I, and World War II). It attempts to place real, present concerns about the public's possible future reaction to Soviet nuclear-powered attack submarine operations off the U.S. coasts within a broader historical context.
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October 1, 1988
Reported tail probabilities of test statistics are based on the assumption that the method is applied to all samples from the population. This assumption is incorrect when data analysts test the underlying assumption, e.g., symmetry, and refrain from using the method if the assumption is rejected. Hence the standard tables are invalid. This is illustrated by generating samples from a Cauchy distribution.
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